I believe in lucky numbers. Or, at least, I believe that the prevalent Chinese belief in lucky numbers (part of the arcane art of fengshui) can take on a life of its own. Chinese authorities believe that picking 8:08 PM on the eighth day of the eighth month of 2008 for the Olympics’ opening ceremony will make the Games especially auspicious. Eight is a lucky number.

Lucky numbers save me money. When I bargain with Chinese vendors trying to sell me something, I pick a truly lowball figure with the number “8” in it. Then I explain I need that price because its lucky, and I don't budge. They cave in. Of course the number’s lucky for them, too, because they’re secretly congratulating themselves on having conned me shamelessly. By that time, I’ve gone away happy. When I can go away happy after a sale, I consider myself lucky indeed.

Firecrackers are still exploding outside my window, as hung-over revelers finish off the stash they bought to usher in the Lunar New Year on Wednesday. Fireworks are supposed to scare away evil spirits. That pyrotechnic deterrence might be needed this year.

It’s the Year of the Rat. The Rat comes first in the list of Chinese zodiac animals. Legend has it a dozen beasts had a race to be #1. The Ox was winning but then the Rat, which was hitching a ride on the Ox’s back, jumped off and scooted across the finish line first. Sneaky critter.

Which may be why Chinese fortunetellers and geomancers are predicting international tensions, calamities and epidemics, and stock-market gyrations this year. To understand it all, you also need to know about the five fundamental elements – earth, fire, gold, wood, and water – of fengshui, also known as geomancy.

This year the earth element – normally perceived as solid and stable -- is perched on top of water, which is hardly a steady foundation. “Earth usually conquers water, but it’s too weak to control the Rat,” which symbolizes the most powerful aspect of water, says Hong Kong fengshui master Raymond Lo.

Thus the Year of the Rat will mean apparent stability but also underlying “tensions and confrontations,” he says. Sounds like he's describing the Chinese economy. Westerners have a quaint proverb for the same concept: "a house of cards."

Who would’ve thought the Year of Rat augurs romance,too? Even so, given the Rat’s penchant for treachery, fengshui experts warn this could simply mean a lot more sex scandals than usual this year.

The key thing to worry about this year is the Rat’s strength in the water department, which could prophesy disasters involving too much water, too little water, or water in the wrong place at the wrong time. The deadly 2004 Asian tsunami -- as well as the 1912 sinking of the Titanic -- both took place when the Rat was strong.

There’s a lot more to say about fengshui, the Rat, and the Olympics. I’ll save it for another time. A friend in the States suggested I post a riff on lucky numbers on 02/08/2008, the eighth day of the second month of 2008. I missed the deadline in Beijing.  But its still Feb. 8 in the States. Call it a lucky loophole.  Just the sort of slippery gambit you might expect in the Year of the Rat.