The estimated death toll from the Lhasa bloodshed keeps mounting -- and the upcoming Olympic torch relay  in early May could provide a window for renewed unrest. Today Chinese state media reported ten deaths in Tibet, some of them "business people". Presumably many were ethnic Han Chinese entrepreneurs who've flocked to Lhasa in droves over the past decade to cash in on commercial opportunities -- in many cases triggering resentment and envy from local Tibetans.

If anecdotal -- and difficult to confirm -- reports trickling out of Tibet are anywhere close to accurate, the death toll will continue to rise. Tragically, it seems I was justified to worry about  government over-reaction in yesterday's "Asia Rising" column on the unrest 

Today armored personnel carriers patrolled the streets of Lhasa. Violence appears to have subsided, at least for the moment.  Authorities announced a deadline of midnight Monday for rioters to surrender. What's the next act, then, in this unfolding tragedy?  All eyes are now turning to the Olympic torch relay, which Chinese officials plan to bring to the summit of Mt. Everest  -- despite opposition from critics who believe the Olympic torch should not enter Tibet until Tibetans can enjoy greater religious and cultural freedom.

Recently a friend of mine in Kathmandu sent me the following account of Beijing's extraordinary efforts to get the Nepalese government to cooperate in cracking down on mountaineering expeditions to Everest, part of China's campaign to eliminate every possible channel for public dissent. The measures are creating a lot of angst over Everest:

China Bullying Nepal to Ban Everest Climbers for Fear of Tibetan Flag-Waving
 
Following claims that it expects anti-Chinese demonstrations from the summit of Mount Everest, China is pressuring the government of Nepal to close down mountain expeditions to Everest as soon as possible. China recently closed down all mountaineering to the Everest region from the northern Tibetan side. A high-level delegation from China will arrive in Kathmandu on March 21st to meet with the Home, Defense, Foreign  and Tourism Ministries of Nepal to coordinate the ban on mountaineers as soon as possible.
 
There are 15 Everest expedition teams due in Nepal for the upcoming spring climbing season; all are slated to arrive in Nepal by the end of March. They will attempt to summit from the southern, Nepalese side of the mountain.  Each group has an average of twelve people, with each person paying a climbing fee to the Nepalese government of ten thousand dollars. This fee does not include payments to the climbing companies.
 
Ministry of Tourism Undersecretary Mr. Leela Mani Paudyal met two days ago with representatives of the Trekking Agency Association of Nepal (TAAN), an umbrella organization of all the trekking companies in Nepal, to inform them that the Nepalese government had already agreed with the Chinese request. He said the Nepalese Ministry of Tourism, the Foreign Affairs Ministry, the Home Ministry and the Defence Ministry had agreed that no expeditions would be allowed to climb above Gorakshep  (at 5350 meters or 17,000 feet) from now until May 10th.
 
The Trekking Agency Association of Nepal  met on March 14th and submitted a proposal to the Nepalese government requesting that expeditions be allowed to go as far as  Camp 3 (at 7,200 meters or 23,621 feet).   One TAAN member, who's expecting expedition groups to arrive within the next week, said, “We told the ministry that we will be responsible for the actions of our groups.”   TAAN was told that their proposal would be discussed with the Chinese delegation on March 21st.
  
Trekking agency owners say that if no expeditions are allowed beyond Gorakshep until after May 10th, there can be no expeditions. The reason is that it takes three weeks to fix the ropes on the route through the treacherous Khumbu ice fall, and the ice starts to melt by the first week of May.  Starting to climb after May 10th would be too dangerous.
 
Moreover no expeditions will be allowed to use satellite or radio communication anywhere on Mount Everest or the surrounding area.  TAAN and expedition leaders informed the Ministry of Tourism that radio communication amongst the climbers is critical for safety reasons. The Home Ministry responded by saying, "If expeditions are allowed to go as far as Camp 3, we will provide climbing police and army teams; they will have radios and will be able to deal with any emergencies."

One Everest summiteer presently in Nepal said, “This is the most upsetting requirement as it jeopardizes the safety of all the climbers.”
 
The Nepalese government says it will suspend the registration of any trekking company  with an expedition member who takes part in any anti Chinese act, such as “raising the Tibetan flag on the summit of Everest.”

All tour operators who have expeditions this Spring (some due to arrive imminently) are requesting their groups to postpone their arrival until after the Chinese delegation visit when more information will be available. One agency operator says he feels there's only a ten percent chance that the Chinese delegation will accept the TAAN proposal of allowing expeditions to go as far as Camp 3. 
 

Today, the Nepali Times ran the following story:

Mount Olympus
Chomolungma falls victim to Olympic politics

Reported by Dewan Rai After stopping expeditions climbing Chomolungma [Mt. Everest] from the north side between 1-10 May, the Chinese government is pressing Kathmandu to also ban expeditions from the Nepal side of the world’s highest mountain.

Chinese officials reportedly met representatives of the Home, Defence and Tourism Ministries in Kathmandu on Monday to ask for the halt. Till press time Thursday Nepal’s trekking and mountaineering companies were trying to negotiate a compromise that would allow expeditions to go up to Camp 3 till 10 May.

“We are hoping for a last-minute compromise at a higher political level,” a participant of the meeting at the Tourism Ministry told Nepali Times.

Last week, the China Tibet Mountaineering Association sent a letter to expeditions from the north asking them to “postpone” climbing because of “crowded climbing routes and increased environmental pressures”.

But the real reason seems to be worries that protesters may try to disrupt a high-profile climb in early May which will take the Olympic torch to the summit of Chomolungma. Tibetan activists want to use the August Olympics in Beijing to highlight their campaign for a free Tibet, and have stepped up protests worldwide this week.

There were even protests inside Tibet on Tuesday with monks taking out rallies at Ganden and Sera monasteries outside Lhasa. Last year, American activists who unfurled a banner at base camp on the Chinese side that read: ‘One World, One Dream, Free Tibet 2008’ were deported.

The Chinese have been sensitive to the presence of Tibetan activists in Nepal, and have got Kathmandu to crack down on functions to mark the Dalai Lama’s birthday celebrations. Last week, Nepal deported a Tibetan refugee and police baton-charged a pro-Tibetan protest in Baudha on Tuesday.

The Nepal government stands to lose at least 1.2 million dollars in royalties alone if expeditions from the Nepal side are cancelled, and many high-altitude guides will lose their jobs on both sides of the mountain. Last year there were a record 48 expeditions from north and south.

Early May is the peak climbing period on Chomolungma when expeditions establish camps, fix ropes and acclimatise for the final summit push towards the third week of May. Nepali mountaineering firms are trying to get the Chinese to agree to allow expedition to get up to the Western Cwm and make summit pushes only after 10 May.

The question is what will happen if the summit torch is delayed because of bad weather.