This morning’s attack, which killed 16 police in the far western region of Xinjiang, did not exactly surprise me, but it may have startled at least one senior official from the area, Kerexi Maihesuti. Just last Friday in a Beijing press conference for foreign media the vice chairman of the Xinjiang region described the threat of ethnic Uighur separatists there as a disorderly band of wanna-be’s “with limited power” who are “not competent make the attacks which some hostile forces wish".

     Are authorities dangerously downplaying the threat?  Well, not always. A People’s Daily editorial last month warned grimly that “The Beijing Olympics is facing a terrorist threat unsurpassed in Olympic history.”  With such mixed signals – and the Beijing Olympics just days away – Chinese Netizens are buzzing with questions and speculation about the most recent incident. What seems clear – perhaps the only thing that’s truly clear – is that already stringent security precautions in China’s capital will no doubt become tighter still.

　This morning Web postings on an Internet bulletin board popular with IT professionals revealed surprise, alarm, and conspiracy theories. One post starts out “F---! Xinjiang attacked by bombs. 16 armed police died, 16 injured. CCTV just reported it” and goes on to describe the 7:55 AM incident in which two vehicles tried to ram a group of People’s Armed Police engaged in their routine morning exercises, including jogging in formation. The drivers threw two grenades and slashed their victims with knives. “Terror” says one respondent. Update: later official reports said there was only one vehicle, a dump truck of all things.
　
　A person using the cybernym Orion frets “I was even thinking of driving to Xinjiang in August. It’s not safe even in a non-Games region.” To which another Netizen says “They’re too bold, even picking on the border troops. It looks like the border troops don’t have enough fighting force, so many died and injured.”
　
　 Then someone posts a news report of the press-conference comments made by Kerexi Maihesuti saying the East Turkistan separatists aren’t as powerful as reported by some media. “When I watched this news the day before yesterday, I realized the terrorists wouldn’t let this go,” says William920. “They did this because of that news,” agrees Eggcom. “Was Kerexi Maihesuti bragging or [public security personnel] not doing their jobs?” Concludes another, “Obviously it was not appropriate for him to give those comments at that moment.”

　To be sure, the deadly incident in Kashgar – an ancient Silk Road oasis town in Xinjiang where Muslim Uighurs are the largest single ethnic group – has not been proven (yet) to have been the work of separatists aspiring to establish an independent “East Turkistan”. But the official Xinhua news agency said the incident was “suspected to be a terrorist attack”.  Xinhua said local public security department officials received intelligence that the separatist East Turkistan Islamic Movement would seek to disrupt the Games or their run-up with attacks between Aug. 1 and 8. ETIM is a categorized as a terrorist group by both the U.S. and Chinese governments though its size, effectiveness, and viability is a source of much debate.
　
　　  In other words, Uighur separatists have presented Beijing with a public-relations dilemma: is it better to scoff at them as incompetents, or hype them as a major security threat?  At the moment we’re getting both messages, which leaves the public (and the foreign media) somewhat suspicious of official statements on the situation in restive Xinjiang.
　
　For months Chinese authorities have cited a number of foiled Muslim extremist plots to tarnish the Olympics, including a scheme to blow up an airplane and kidnap foreign visitors and media. Hence the Hongqi 7 missile batteries set up near the Olympic competition venues. Last month, in a video released on the Internet, a militant group calling itself the Turkistan Islamic Party promised to “target the most critical points related to the Olympics” and claimed responsibility for recent bomb blasts in Kunming, Shanghai and other cities. (The group is believed to be based in Pakistan which borders Xinjiang.)
　
　I’m waiting to see how that plays out. Sixteen dead in a terrorist attack is an extremely high number for China, the most deadly in years.(Another 16 police were injured). Then again, Kashgar is 4,000 kilometers away from Beijing, where the intensity of security inspections, credentialling, and surveillance are already unprecedented. After living here for a decade, this is the first time I’ve seen helicopters over my residential compound, except for a ceremonial fly-past during the National Day parade rehearsal in 1999 (which doesn’t count).  While entering the Olympics media center yesterday my wedding ring set off the medal detection device, which was a first for me and suggested perhaps the settings were a tad sensitive. I’m still not sure whether to be reassured, amused or annoyed.