Khalid Mohammed / AP
Attack Aftermath: Smoke rises from the Green Zone

By Larry Kaplow

One of the most visible improvements in the security situation here in recent months was the steep, almost total, decrease in insurgent rocket attacks. That lull has now been shattered. As Shiite militias appear be backsliding on a ceasefire dating back to last August, rocket attacks have resumed, taking a deadly and ominous toll.

Multiple rocket barrages reportedly killed about 13 Iraqis in the capital on Sunday—a day that saw an estimated 58 Iraqis and four U.S. soldiers die in a spate of attacks nationwide. The Baghdad rockets were apparently fired toward the Green Zone, which is headquarters for the Iraqi government, the U.S. military and the U.S. embassy. But many somehow fell short and landed in neighborhoods outside the fortified area, killing Iraqis. Inside, as the embassy alarm sounded, two U.S. government employees, including an American citizen and a Jordanian, were seriously wounded, while about six others received medical treatment for lighter wounds, according to an embassy official. He did not know if others not working for the United States were injured.

Rocket attacks are one form of lethal communications by Shiite hardliners; this time they may be signaling that supporters of Moqtada al-Sadr are ready to resume violence to gain more political power. If so, the prize at stake would be local elections expected much later this year. Most governorships and provincial councils in the south are now controlled by the Islamic Dawa Party or the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq (ISCI) simply because these two Shiite groups entered the political process early on. Since then Sadr has become a surging grass-roots phenomenon. His supporters are expected to win seats throughout the south if and when there is a vote. But they worry about the very real possibility that the government parties will stall or rig the elections. Worse, they fear that the government parties could be trying to smash the Sadr movement before the vote.

Those fears were likely strengthened by a series of recent government raids on Sadr offices in the south. The militias may be pushing back. It’s always murky trying to determine whether those fighting are doing so with Sadr’s blessing. But a local newspaper reported Sadr spokesmen threatening a “disobedience” campaign against raids by Iraqi and U.S. forces. That call was for peaceful protest—like closing shops—but in the past Sadr disputes with rival Shiites have seen increased rocket fire at U.S. installations, presumably because the United States is closely allied to the mainstream Shiites. When they fire at the Green Zone, they rattle both the U.S. and Iraqi governments.