By Stefan Theil 

 Fifteen key economists, strategists and policy makers weigh in on a week of volatility and economic turmoil.

'A Meltdown'
Nouriel Roubini
We know booms and busts are aspects of capitalism, and have been so historically. Many of them have been driven by a technological innovation--whether it was the railroad or the Internet--and they may create bubbles, fraud and eventual losses. But they are also driven by real innovation. This latest crisis we see today differs from such historical examples in two important elements.

'Financial Folly'
Kenneth Rogoff
What's happening now is not at all special, but follows the well-trodden paths of past financial folly. As my work with Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland shows, the most important determinant for the depth of a financial crisis is the size of the initial hit to the system.

'U.S. Recession'
Stephen Roach
It's pretty simple--you either believe in globalization through increased border-trade linkages, or you believe in decoupling. But it's intellectually dishonest to believe in both. There's no region of the world that is more externally driven than developing Asia, which is where I live now.

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Those attending this gathering for the first time are known as Davos virgins--and they're easily spotted by the anxious map-clutching and touching belief that the shuttle buses will get them to their destinations faster than trudging through the snow. Colleague Barbara Kantrowitz--co-author of our Her Body health column--shares her experiences (and her photo of the "cool girls" who are Davos regulars.)

By Barbara Kantrowitz

The first thing I notice is that everyone is staring at my breasts and then very quickly turning away. No one makes eye contact. This is disconcerting until I realize that my Davos ID badge falls just at the center of my cleavage, and I am being scrutinized not by my cup size but by my power status. And in that respect, I am falling flat as a pancake. My badge has just my name and picture on it, no affiliation, which marks me as the spouse of a participant. In other words, I am nobody.

In a way, this is kind of a relief. I don't have to worry about networking every single second and I can wander without any agenda. Although this is my first time at Davos, it feels oddly familiar. As I walk through the halls, I suddenly realize why. Davos--this idyllic village high in the Swiss Alps--is actually a nightmare version of high school. Instead of the standard mix of jocks, freaks and geeks, the halls of the Congress Centre seem to be largely populated only by legions of suck-ups.

I have been searching in vain for some fresh faces and thinking in the Chinese delegation to Davos. Representatives from other countries typically bring a broad range of perspectives on world affairs and some feisty commentary on the situation in their home countries to the table. The Chinese delegation, in contrast, seems overpopulated with senior officials and business leaders who simply serve up the party line.

Google, founded well into the Davos era, has quickly emerged as a blue-chip company, a member in good standing of the global elite. And as such, it has established an interactive presence at Davos. In an alcove in a key spot in the Congress Center, Google has set up a series of computers equipped with webcams. It brings leaders and participants by and poses the Davos question: What one thing can people, companies, and governments do to make the world a better place in 2008?  It’s very Google—intent on doing good, totally digital, and willfully quirky. It’s funny to watch older leaders coping with new media. Bono’s answer is likely to get a lot of hits.  But one of the first big gets was former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who seems to be growing shorter and rounder—he rolls through the center like a bespoke-suited bowling ball—to peer into the webcam. (Click here to watch it.)

Also check out former Israeli Prime Minster Shimon Peres greeting YouTube viewers and waiting for questions to be posed by the webcam.

So does South Africa's likely-president-in-waiting really believe that taking a shower can prevent AIDS? No, says Jacob Zuma, the controversial choice to succeed President Thabo Mbeki as leader of his country's ruling African National Congress (ANC). Zuma's election as ANC head last month makes him an apparent shoo-in to take over the national presidency when Mbeki's term in expires in 2009--provided Zuma isn't first convicted on possible criminal charges arising from a long running local corruption scandal.

Anyone who thinks that sites like MySpace and FaceBook are the preserve of the young are in for a re-think. At a Davos dinner called "Add a Friend: Accept or Decline", the discussion was all about how community sites can be used for product testing and brand building. One of the participants, Forrester Research CEO George F. Colony, predicts that corporate participation on the social sites is "going to explode" in the year ahead.

Other Forrester predictions:

Virginia Mayo / AP

By Stefan Theil

One of the headaches in planning a big annual conference is assembling topics and panelists without knowing what's going to be preoccupying the world that very week. So amid the high economic anxiety surrounding today's start of the World Economic Forum, the opening session with Afghanistan's president Hamid Karzai and Condoleezza Rice almost seemed like a blast from the past, when the world was worrying about things other than massive market mayhem. Business leaders listened to their talks about fighting terrorism and promoting democracy, but it's a safe bet that most of them had other troubles on their minds.

 
Photo: Arlene Getz
Nigeria's President Yar'Adua

Kenya might be the most recent--and surprising--African nation to have descended into chaos, but some of the world's most influential people are still optimistic about the continent. That, at least, was what a show of hands indicated during a panel today called Africa's Governance Dividend. "Africa is moving on and coming up," Nigerian President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua told delegates.

John Snow, former Treasury Secretary and current chairman of private equity firm Cerberus, walking into the meeting room clutching a cloth bag--the type organic food co-op shoppers carry--printed with the words "EARTH SAVER"

A private equity executive I was chatting with said: "If he had brought that to the White House, Karl Rove would have shot him."

Party Favorites: Zuma (left) and Thompson
 
Photos: Getty Images

The first Davos cocktail party is always a crush. Hundreds of participants wait on line to go through metal detectors then press shoulder-to-shoulder inside the Belvedere Hotel, necks craning and eyes straining in case they miss out on a Person of Note.

I got lucky tonight, as my big encounter came even before I shoved into the throng. Waiting to hand in my coat and boots, I found myself next to actress Emma Thompson, one of the celebrity invitees who are a regular feature at World Economic Events. Before her WEF escort had time to introduce me, she checked my badge, greeted me warmly by name and complimented me on my choice of heavy footwear. (Her own heeled black boots, worn with a black dress and hat, were altogether more elegant, if less practical. But then again, she's unlikely to be left to trudge through the snow like the lesser mortals.) We chatted a little longer as we walked in together--she's hoping to learn as much as she can from Davos, she says--and then she got mobbed. First the TV crews surrounded her, then, as the crowd thinned, by beaming groups of middle-aged men coming as close as they could. One, confiding that he'd been in love with her for years, asked if she'd pose for a picture with him. She did.

The appeal of Davos for financiers and businesspeople is to get away from the world of SEC filings, subprime write-downs, and EBITDA, and a chance to indulge the inner wonk/public intellectual. It takes some doing. There’s the eight-hour flight to Zurich followed by another couple of hours in a car, bus or train, chugging slowly up a narrow snowscape, through stands of 200-foot pines. But it’s worth the trip. Instead of sitting through sales meetings, placating investors, or scanning bar charts, they can ponder the implications of the human genome project for cancer research, or listen to Tony Blair, or sit in on a panel discussion with food pioneer Alice Waters.

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Coming into Davos always reminds me of those invisible fences used to keep their dogs straying off suburban properties. Some of the security measures to safeguard the arriving VIPs are indeed visible—mostly in the form of a security cordon outside the conference center and airport-style metal detectors at the main hotels—but much of it is hidden behind unseen barriers. The first time I came here, much was made of an anti-globalization protest that was supposed to draw in demonstrators from around Switzerland. Police dealt with it by shrewdly heading off most of the protesters at Landquart station, one of the main switchover points for the little red trains that come up into these mountains. The diminished numbers that did make it into the town put on a spirited show, but most people here had no idea that they were watching a sort of Potemkin protest, with many more activists kept one layer of security away.

This year, though, the World Economic Forum (WEF) organizers are opening Davos up to the masses. Well, kinda… The group has done a deal with YouTube to pose the “Davos Question”: What one thing do you think that countries, companies or individuals must do to make the world a better place in 2008? WEF requests that those interested submit a video posing their question, and promises that the Davos players will get right back to them.

The YouTube community seems to have responded with gusto. According to WEF official Matthias Lufkens, about 844,000 people watched the video before the Davos meeting had even begun (it starts officially on Wednesday, January 23, although what with the slew of pre-Davos events and invitations one could be forgiven for feeling that it’s been going on for months.) About 100 of them have submitted videos, says Lufkens. In keeping with the YouTube ethos, these range from the weird to the odd to the serious. The most watchable? Perhaps that dubious distinction goes to the Headcrab Zombie, whose video persona involves holding a flesh-colored sphere with dangling tentacles that obscure his face:

He, like many others, actually wants to ANSWER the Davos Question, rather than ask it. (“One thing we can do to make the world a better place is to think before we acAt,” rumbles the pink sphere. “If it benefits you, but not the rest of the world, don’t do it.”)

As for those who really do want to hear from the world leaders, Lufkens says they’ll get their wish: WEF plans to haul a bunch of CEOs to a special YouTube booth at the conference center so they can answer to their virtual constituents. “It’s not just a PR stunt,” says Lufkens. “It’s a new way to communicate.” These days, those protesters can travel broadband.

 Laurent Gillieron / AP - for dl use stocksworld

It’s easy – and de rigeur – for journalists to make fun of the seriousness and earnestness of the Davos enterprise. What started as bunch of high-powered and smart people taking time out of their schedules to discuss matters of great import has devolved into a media event, a branding opportunity for companies, global leaders, and nations. But as I was stuck on the security line at John F. Kennedy, waiting to board the Swiss International flight to Zurich yesterday, I got an inkling of why it matters to many of those who attend. I got to commiserating with the passenger behind me in line, who turned out to be the chief executive officer of a major software company. His eyes lit up as he talked to a group of people he knew on the line, who were travelling to Switzerland on business, and described Davos. “You get to think about things you never think about,” he said. “Nobody talks about the weather, and nobody talks about what they did last summer.” And it struck me. For those who are too busy working all day, running companies, making business decisions—people who don’t have time, like journalists do, to read blogs, magazines, and newspapers all day—Davos is less about plugging in, schmoozing, and networking, and more about unplugging from the demands of the daily whirl.

By Laurie Garrett, Council on Foreign Relations

Five years ago at Davos I saw Microsoft billionaire Bill Gates chew out the Minister of Health of China for failing to care for the survival of his people – just weeks before Beijing admitted to having a massive SARS epidemic. The encounter was dramatic, but took place entirely behind closed doors. How many such private interactions on behalf of health and development will occur this year in Davos – particularly given the dire economic news that will be forefront in the minds of most conferees – is hard to say.

Want the behind-the-scenes dish from Davos? Join NEWSWEEK's Dan Gross at 5 p.m. GMT (12 noon ET) on Thursday, Jan. 24, for answers to your questions.

It's a hot ticket for a cold place. Every year, hundreds of the world's business and political leaders converge on the Swiss ski resort of Davos for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. And no, it's not only a place to see and be seen.The exclusive, invitation-only gathering tries to shape the global agenda for the year ahead during five days of nonstop meetings, sessions, plenaries, receptions, lunches and dinners. The business is as serious as the celebrity spotting (previous draws have included Angelina Jolie and Richard Gere; Bono is a regular fixture.) Last year, the main topic was climate change; this year more than 2,500 delegates from 88 countries will focus on a theme entitled "The Power of Collaborative Innovation." But they'll talk about other things too. In a video preview, NEWSWEEK International Editor Fareed Zakaria discusses this year's likely headline-grabbers..

If you're wondering what American will be like after George W. Bush leaves office, or if you're interested in what Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (among others) would like to tell Washington, we have a magazine for that. For the last nine years, NEWSWEEK, together with the World Economic Forum, has produced a special edition focusing on key global issues and debates. The topic for the 2008 edition--America's standing around the world--attracted contributions from a wide range of writers eager to offer the United States advice. Many of these contributors are attending Davos, where their suggestions to Washington are sure to be scrutinized and discussed. Join the debate by reading what they have to say, and participate in the dialogue via our comments boards.

By Fareed Zakaria

Photo: Abid Katib/Getty Images

For the past few years, America has been alienated from the world. We have all read the yearly polls with the same damning numbers. But on one issue, the United States and the world agree: majorities everywhere expect things to improve markedly after George W. Bush. Whether it's in Europe or Asia, the refrain from politicians, businessmen and intellectuals is the same. "We don't hate America," one of them told me recently. "We hate Bush. When he's gone, it will be a new day."

But will it? The question will be put to the test in a year, when a new president enters the White House.

There's little doubt that the style and substance of U.S. foreign policy over the past seven years has provoked enormous international opposition. What is less clear is that the style and substance were unique products of the Bush administration. Some part of the global response was surely the product of longstanding unease with U.S. dominance. After all, France's foreign minister coined the term "hyperpuissance" to describe America under Bill Clinton, not George W. Bush.

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By Timothy Garton Ash 

Illustration by Thomas Fuchs

Where Europe is concerned, the next U.S. president will have one immense advantage: not being George W. Bush. But that's about the only advantage he or she will enjoy, for the new administration will take office facing one of the biggest gulfs in transatlantic relations since 1945. Never in recent history—not during the massive row over deploying U.S. nuclear missiles in Europe in the 1980s, nor even during the worst days of the Vietnam War—has U.S. leadership been so little respected and trusted there.

Even in the most traditionally pro-American countries, surveys show a precipitous decline in U.S. standing. In Britain, according to a Pew poll, favorable opinion of the United States dropped from 83 percent in 2000 to 56 percent last year, and in Germany, the figure slid from 78 to just 37. Trust in Washington has also hit a record low. According to a survey for the German Marshall Fund, only 36 percent of Europeans now see U.S. leadership as desirable at all. In 2002, that figure was still 64 percent. Asked to name the main reasons for the decline, 34 percent said President Bush himself and 38 percent blamed the war in Iraq.

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