Photo: Arlene Getz
Nigeria's President Yar'Adua

Kenya might be the most recent--and surprising--African nation to have descended into chaos, but some of the world's most influential people are still optimistic about the continent. That, at least, was what a show of hands indicated during a panel today called Africa's Governance Dividend. "Africa is moving on and coming up," Nigerian President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua told delegates.

But is that improvement a result of increasing democracy in Africa? Not really, said Paul Collier, a professor of economics at Oxford University. Collier is the author of Bottom Billion, a much-discussed book about the world's poorest countries and a phrase set to be heard excessively at this year's meeting. He believes that the real reason some African countries are earning dividends in the form of improved infrastructure and security has less to do with often-questionable elections and more to do with African leaders learning hard lessons from more than 40 years of failures. "[That's] the best school in the world," he said. "We're not seeing brilliant policy [from new leaders], but we are seeing the avoidance of really bad policy."

Not surprisingly, not everyone agreed with Collier's assessment. What they did agree on, though, was that attention for Africa might get overshadowed by the Davos focus on the subprime and stock market woes. If the reception-circuit chatter is any guide, they could be right.