Andrew Romano
|
Fri, Aug 29 2008
Plouffe, second from right
DENVER--Consider
it David Plouffe's mantra. Speaking Wednesday afternoon to a sizable
delegation of NEWSWEEK reporters, editors and underpaid, overworked
bloggers who go by the
nom d'ecran Stumper, Barack Obama's
data-driven campaign manager swatted down nearly every process question
we tossed his way--from Bill Ayers and Tony Rezko to the narrowing
polls and McCain's misleading attack ads--with a few simple words. "All
we care about in this campaign are the voters in our 18 battleground
states," said the sanguine, smiling Plouffe. "That's all we care
about." According to him, the national surveys are, at this point,
nonsense; the election, he says, will "hinge on turnout"--which he
predicts could boost Obama's total vote share by "a point to four
points." To back up his boasts, Plouffe gave us a glimpse into the
current state of play in some of the key November battlegrounds--at
least as they look from Chicago. Here's the skinny:
The Kerry States: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin
The
strategy starts with holding the 251 electoral votes that John Kerry
won in 2004; of those states, four are currently on Obama's
battleground list. Even though McCain has been leaning hard in
Pennsylvania, Plouffe noted, the polls currently show Obama with a five
to 10 point advantage. What's more, the Democrats have gained 316,000
new registrations since January, while the Republicans have lost
60,000. The result, says Plouffe, is that "in a state where we already
have a demographic advantage, where our base
vote is higher than McCain's, he's going to have to win a massive
amount of the swing vote to have a chance." He's less confident,
however, about Michigan, which was off-limits to Obama during the
primaries. "Obama is less formed in Michigan as a campaign and as
individual," he says, "so we've had to play catch-up." That's why Obama
held his two biggest endorsement rallies--John Edwards and Al Gore--in
the Great Lakes State. Asked whether selecting Mitt Romney as his
running mate could help McCain clinch it, Plouffe was ready with a
red-meat retort. "Presumably the reason to pick Romney would be to help
on the economy," he said. "But boy, that would be the greatest
job-killing machine in the history of American politics.
Mitt Romney is an expert on Cayman Island tax shelters. You couldn't
have a more out-of-touch ticket."
The Tipping Points: Ohio and Florida
One
major benefit of Obama's expanded battlefield, according to Plouffe, is
that "there are a
lot of scenarios where we don't need" Ohio and Florida to win the
election. Still, Team Obama is "pouring everything we can into those
states." The reason? because "if we win Ohio or Florida, I don't think
John McCain has any chance to win the presidency," he said. Regarding
Ohio, he confessed that "it's close now, it'll be close in September
and it'll be close in October." Surprisingly, Plouffe seemed more
"bullish" about Florida--a state that many Republicans have said
belongs to McCain. Asked why, he pointed to the the 900,000 voters under
40 and the 600,00 African-Americans who were registered but didn't vote
in 2004--as well as a combined total of more than a million
unregistered voters in both demographic groups. "The places where you
have the highest number of base voters are the places you have the best
chance of winning," he said. "We think there's going to be slightly
more than 10 million people voting in Florida. Our base, we think, is
more than 5 million. You gotta like that. Now, I'm not saying we're
going to turn everyone out. But it lessens the amount of the swing vote
you
have to get."
The Targets: Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, New Mexico, Iowa
Confident
that Obama will win two of 2004's closest red states, Plouffe noted
that his boss is polling outside the margin of error in New Mexico and
Iowa. "They're the most likely to flip," he said. Virginia, Colorado
and North Carolina will be trickier. Plouffe is buoyed by the recent
influx of young professionals to the suburbs of Northern Virginia, but
admitted that registering new residents is tricky and said that Obama
can win without them provided he turns out the youth and black votes.
"We're not just trying to increase turnout," he said. "We're trying to
get the highest percentage of African-Americans to vote in our
electoral history, and the highest percentage of voters under 30."
Claiming Obama has a "slim lead," Plouffe plans to target voters who
say they're supporting former governor Mark Warner's Senate run but
still aren't sure about Obama. "Warner gives us a clear sense of who's
available," he said. Meanwhile, Plouffe was confident that Obama can
catch up in North Carolina, where he trails by a few points--again
thanks to black voters and young whites. As for Colorado, Plouffe
pointed to last night event's at Invesco stadium, where each of the
60,000 additional attendees--25,000 of who hail from the Centennial
State--agreed to serve as neighborhood captains or volunteers in
exchange for a seat. "While the Republicans criticize, we choose to
organize," he said. "McCain's going to have a very, very hard time
winning in November if he can't win here."
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