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Posted Thursday, February 28, 2008 5:05 PM

A Rose By Any Other Name . . .

Sharon Begley

. . .would smell as sweet,” Juliet told Romeo. But the fate of the nation’s economy this year might depend on what we call those $300, $600 or $1,200 checks that some 100 million Americans are due as part of Washington’s plan to stave off recession.

Is the windfall a “tax rebate”? If that’s what officials and the media call it, expect most of the dough to get stashed in bank accounts or to be used to pay down credit card balances, not for new spending. The latter is what Congress and President Bush hope for, since boosting consumer spending, which makes up two-thirds of the economy, may help avoid an economic downturn. But if the money is labeled a “tax bonus,” then it might indeed be used for a few splurges.

The reason is that “decisions about whether checks from the government will be spent or saved depend very heavily on how people’s options are described,” Nicholas Epley, a professor of behavioral science at the University of Chicago business school tells the National Science Foundation, which funds his research. “If the goal is to increase consumer spending, the checks should have been pitched as ‘tax bonuses’ instead of ‘tax rebates.’ People are much more liberal about spending a bonus or a windfall than they are spending money thought of as part of their income. People consider a ‘tax bonus’ a windfall, but consider a ‘tax rebate’ more like their regular income.” They're more likely to put aside a rebate for a rainy day, especially in these uncertain times.

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The size of this naming effect can be significant, Epley’s experiments show. He gave volunteers $25 in cash, described it as a rebate to some and a bonus to others. Recipients told they’d gotten a rebate spent $2.43 on items for sale in the lab “store,” while those told it was a bonus spent $11.16. That finding was borne out in the real world of the 2001 tax rebates, when Washington sent people $300 or $600 in an effort to prevent a 9/11-linked recession--and consumer spending hardly budged.

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Member Comments

Posted By: jacksonbrowne12 (February 29, 2008 at 6:27 PM)

I believe that as soon as people start getting the checks they are going to put it away in savings accounts or cds. But eventually i think they are going to spend it in the near future. That is what americans just do, they spend.


Posted By: curryjm (February 29, 2008 at 6:24 PM)

After sending the IRS a balance due on my 2007 tax return that is three times the amount of the $1,200 rebate, you can bet that the $1,200 is going right back where it came from--in the bank.  However, there are plenty of stupid people out there who will just blow the rebate check.  So, I do think the tax rebates will have some positive effect.  I mean, "everyone" has just got to have a new 60 inch flat-screen TV, right?  But then I guess the tax rebates will be helping China's economy more than ours.


Posted By: sunfedhomes (February 29, 2008 at 5:20 PM)

What this should be called is what it is... more debt.  Our government has NO money.  To borrow more, when the US no longer has the income to pay it back, is absolute economic stupidity.  And this is after Bush agreed to bail out the big banks for writing bad mortgages.  Another asinine move, no?  This BS is getting deeper and deeper.

Why isn't our government required to balance their books?  Thats right... they write the laws. Silly me...


 
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