. . .would smell as sweet,” Juliet told Romeo. But the fate of the
nation’s economy this year might depend on what we call those $300,
$600 or $1,200 checks that some 100 million Americans are due as
part of Washington’s plan to stave off recession.
Is the windfall a “tax rebate”? If that’s what officials and the
media call it, expect most of the dough to get stashed in bank accounts
or to be used to pay down credit card balances, not for new spending. The
latter is what Congress and President Bush hope for, since boosting
consumer spending, which makes up two-thirds of the economy, may help
avoid an economic downturn. But if the money is labeled a “tax bonus,”
then it might indeed be used for a few splurges.
The reason is that “decisions about whether checks from the
government will be spent or saved depend very heavily on how people’s
options are described,” Nicholas Epley, a professor of behavioral
science at the University of Chicago business school tells the National
Science Foundation, which funds his research. “If the goal is to
increase consumer spending, the checks should have been pitched as ‘tax
bonuses’ instead of ‘tax rebates.’ People are much more liberal about
spending a bonus or a windfall than they are spending money thought of
as part of their income. People consider a ‘tax bonus’ a windfall, but
consider a ‘tax rebate’ more like their regular income.” They're more likely to put aside a rebate for a rainy day, especially in these
uncertain times.
The size of this naming effect can be significant, Epley’s
experiments show. He gave volunteers $25 in cash, described it as a
rebate to some and a bonus to others. Recipients told they’d
gotten a rebate spent $2.43 on items for sale in the lab “store,” while
those told it was a bonus spent $11.16. That finding was borne out in
the real world of the 2001 tax rebates, when Washington sent people
$300 or $600 in an effort to prevent a 9/11-linked recession--and
consumer spending hardly budged.