Sharon Begley
|
Apr 29, 2009 02:49 PM
Official reports of swine flu cases always lag behind actual cases.
It takes time for people to get to a doctor, get diagnosed, and have
the results reported to public health surveillance networks. And that
assumes people get checked out: illegal aliens and other uninsured
people in the U.S. might try to treat themselves and stay under the
radar. But you don’t need health insurance or a doctor’s appointment to
use Google. Led by research showing that the popularity of certain
search terms correlates with a rise in the incidence of flu, the
company just published flu estimates for 16 states in Mexico
and the country as a whole, as well as U.S. data, in an effort “to help
track the spread of the swine flu outbreak,” Google said in a statement.
The effort began last week, when epidemiologists at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
asked the researchers at Google Flu Trends if they could track the
incidence of swine flu in Mexico. Google Flu Trends, which was launched
last November, analyzes the popularity of various search terms to
detect a sudden increase in flu cases: historical data have shown that
when lots of people start Googling terms such as “flu,” “aches,”
“fever” and “buy thermometer,” it correlates with a rise in flu cases.
(The researchers described their methodology in a February paper in Nature.)
By comparing historical search data with historical data on flu cases,
the Google team has been able to filter out search terms—such as plain
old “swine flu”—that indicate curiosity rather than an actual case of
the flu.
In a blog post today, Google software engineers Jeremy Ginsberg and Matt Mohebbi say “the
system has detected increases in flu-related searches in Mexico City
(Distrito Federal) and a few other Mexican states in recent days,
beginning early in the week of April 19-25,” which was a week before
widespread media reports of a swine flu outbreak. The flu incidence is
still quite low, with only pockets of "moderate" activity. That
suggests that the few hundred officials cases are not the tip of a huge
iceberg.
It’s not clear if the Mexican search data are reliable, however.
Unlike for the U.S., Google does not have data correlating actual flu
incidence in Mexico with the popularity of particular search terms
among people in Mexico. The lack of such historical data means the
Google researchers “cannot be fully confident that the data is
correct,” they say. But “we are cautiously optimistic that the graphs
reflect actual flu activity. . . . While we would prefer to validate
this data and improve its accuracy, we decided to release an early
version today so that it might help public health officials and
concerned individuals get an up-to-date picture of the ongoing swine
flu outbreak.” Google Flu Trends will update the Mexican data every day.
Interestingly, Google Flu Trends shows low flu activity in the U.S.
While it’s too soon to breathe a sigh of relief, that just might be an
indication that public health authorities are not missing a huge number
of swine flu cases, which as of 11 a.m. today numbered 91 in 10 states with one fatality. Google Flu trends promises, however, that it will “be keeping an eye on the data to look for any spike in [U.S.] activity.”