The thrill is gone.
Maybe voters are simply tired of the seemingly endless campaign for
the Democratic nomination. Or maybe their excitement about the new
(Barack Obama), the suddenly emoting (Hillary Clinton, in New
Hampshire) or the coming-back-from the-politically-dead (John McCain)
can’t last forever. But whatever the reason, voters are feeling much
less excitement and fewer positive emotions about all three of the
remaining presidential candidates than they once did, finds a poll
that, uniquely, measures voters’ emotional reactions.
If the trend continues, that’s bad news for the candidates, because
research keeps showing that voters base their decisions more on their hearts than their heads and are easily swayed by anxiety, fear and other negative emotions. Latest evidence: anyone who feels—the
key word—that Obama doesn’t understand “people like me” because he said
that voters embittered about their economic plight “cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them.”
If that loses him any votes, it will not be because of a rational
analysis of his record and positions, but because of how it made people
feel about him.
Anyway, a company called AdSam
measures what it calls “Emotional Temperature,” which gauges people’s
emotional engagement with a product, website or advertisement. Since,
as we all know from Joe McGinniss’s 1969 book, “The Selling of the President, 1968,” candidates are marketed and sold just like detergent, the same technique should work with politicians.
In its latest study, AdSam measured how strongly voters feel about
each candidate, and how engaging they find them. Since last September,
Clinton’s “emotional temperature has been on a continual steep decline
with voters,” says AdSam president Jon Morris, a professor at the
University of Florida, dropping from 93 to 70 (where 173 is how
emotionally positive voters say they would like to feel about a
candidate). “Her emotional cool-off is a sign that she is not relevant
and not making connections with voters. This is a significant barrier
for her and will be very difficult for her to turn around.”
Clinton trails both McCain and Obama, whose emotional temperatures
are very similar (85 and 88, respectively, this month) and have not
fallen off a cliff the way Clinton’s has. Obama dropped 8 points from
September to January (97 to 89), and has stayed at about that
“temperature” since. McCain moved up 9 points from September to January
(79 to 88), but is down 3 points since.
Obama generates the most positive emotional response among Democrats
(beating Clinton 120 to 97) and beats McCain among Independents (97 to
81), with Clinton at 74 among Independents. McCain has finally excited
and united Republicans, however, zooming from 101 last September to 145
now.
Clinton is leaving more voters cold, says Morris. Compared to last
September or even January, fewer voters feel “interested/excited” by
her, while more feel “reluctant,” “uninterested/unexcited” and even
“disgusted.” The biggest reason for the turnaround, Morris finds, is
that more voters perceive Clinton as dishonest.
Obama is making more Democrats “interested/excited” now than he did
in January, but more are also feeling “ambivalent” about him. In
follow-up interviews, voters use words such as “truthful,” “honest,”
“trust” and “inspirational,” but more and more cite his scant
experience on the national stage. The Illinois senator has further to
go with Independents: 21 percent feel strong positive emotions about
him, compared to 32 percent last September. Equally worrisome, 28
percent now feel “ambivalent,” the most of any emotion among
Independents asked about Obama.
More Democrats (20 percent) were disgusted by Clinton’s dishonesty
about coming under fire during a trip to Bosnia than by Obama’s links
to his controversial pastor (10 percent). We'll see how this translates
into votes in Pennsylvania next Tuesday.