One of the cherished traditions for people in and around the North American videogame industry is the mid-to-late month release of the previous month's sales figures for both hardware and software. Much like Hollywood with the weekend box office or the music industry with SoundScan, this data, compiled by the Port Washington, NY-based NPD Group, is the subject of much scrutiny, speculation and analysis as everyone tries to figure out What It All Means. Having engaged in many phone, email and IM back-and-forths with various people over the NPDs, as they're generally referred to, we've decided to bring some of those often unheard discussions to light with our occasional feature, Monday Morning Quarterback. As usual, our returning opponent is the Game Head (and Kotaku guest editor) himself, Geoff Keighley, pitting his BlackBerry-fueled insights against our Palm-enabled observations. Some excerpts:
N'Gai Croal: My advice, like my betting skills, is generally hit-or-miss, but looking at Metroid Prime 3: Corruption's two-month sales total (385,100) relative to its Metacritic score (90), perhaps my redesigned Wii remote could have propelled it to Wii Play status. In fact, given the Metacritic scores for the first Metroid Prime (97) and Metroid Prime 2: Echoes (92), maybe Retro Studios should catch the zeitgeist, pull a Bungie and free itself from Nintendo's clutches "unleash" its creativity as part of a "natural evolution" of its relationship with its Japanese owners. Can you think of another Western first-party studio putting out games as acclaimed as the Metroid Prime series with as little to show for it in sales--or in marketing, for that matter? Even though Metroid Prime 3 got stage time at Nintendo's E3 press conference, I can't help but feel as though Retro has fallen victim to either increasing indifference from Nintendo to hardcore gamers or a ruthless focus by Nintendo's marketing department on first, the platform itself, and second, the games it believes will be guaranteed hits.
Geoff Keighley: In a way, Sony is handing the keys to the kingdom to Microsoft this holiday season. But will Microsoft fully capitalize on the opportunity? I'm not so sure. Why? It might have something to do with a Nielsen study that came out which says only 14 percent of US homes have HD-capable TVs. This is less than half what was estimated by the Consumer Electronics Association in July, and may help explain why the Wii continues to dominate relative to the 360 and PS3. I fully expect the Wii to perform well through the holidays, despite the fact that no third parties are capitalizing on the platform's success. You saw my list of the big November games up top and I didn't mention one title on the Wii. Mario Galaxy should do well, but will it cross the 500,000 unit barrier in November? I don't think that's a foregone conclusion. Metroid Prime 3 has done ok, but it certainly isn't a blockbuster hit and seems to have fallen off the radar map already.
N'Gai Croal: Sony has learned the hard way that it can't afford to launch a) 12 months after Microsoft with b) esoteric hardware, subpar tools and an incomplete online service at c) a $200 premium. Kutaragi's forced departure, the sale of Sony's semiconductor facilities to Toshiba and the fact that Sony Electronics has yet to launch any Cell-based products demonstrate loudly and clearly that the Era of the Visionary Engineer is over at Sony Computer Entertainment is over, and with it, perhaps, Sony Corp's silicon ambitions. I wonder whether Sony will make Cell 2 with IBM and Toshiba, or simply bow out and buy a CPU from Intel or AMD now that it's clear that everyone has jumped on the multicore processor bandwagon. If Sony wants to regain its former dominance, its wisest course of action may be to partially outsource its CPU and GPU design, steal the best software architects it can find, and retrench around its strengths: sales, marketing, industrial design and first-party software.
Click on the link below to read our exchange in its entirety--we've even got some exclusive scoop about NPD itself!