As
soon as the news popped up in our inbox, we shot out a couple of
queries to industry observers to get their take on the deal. First up
was the ubiquitous, loquacious and perspicacious Wedbush Morgan analyst
Michael Pachter. Here's what his initial reaction was to the press
release, published with his permission:
It's a great deal, at any price.
They
had the rights to the ancillary books (ghost written and co-created
with Clancy), but didn't have rights to Clancy-authored titles or to
movie titles. They now have the rights to both, and the term is
expanded to perpetuity instead of 15 years (was going to expire at end
of 2013). This means that if Clancy comes up with anything that works,
they have the rights. Also, they were paying a small royalty (I think
it was 1-2 percent of sales) on the games, and that is going away, so
they should have incremental profits going forward. The press release
says operating profit contribution of 5 million Euros per year, and
Clancy sales were likely around 250 million Euros annually [$386
million U.S. dollars], so the 2 percent royalty figure is probably
closer to the mark.
My guess is that they used the overvalued Euro to buy these rights for around $100 million.
Recalling that Ubisoft had previously announced plans to open a digital animation studio in Montreal,
we followed up with Pachter to see if he thought there were any
similarities between the Ubisoft-Clancy deal and how comic book
companies like Marvel, DC Comics and Dark Horse Comics were approaching
Hollywood. He replied:
I suppose ultimately it
will be the same. I doubt that they will produce films at the outset.
Instead expect them to license the way Marvel did in the past, then
maybe migrate to production many years from now.
After
Ubisoft's conference call, wherein CEO Yves Guillemot added some
further color to the deal, Pachter wrote us back with some additional
thoughts:
It looks like the total purchase
price is around 60 million Euros cash [$93 million U.S. dollars] over
three years, 20 million Euros earn-out [$31 million U.S. dollars], so
total is around $128 million at current exchange rates. The immediate
benefit is 5 million Euros [$7.7 million U.S. dollars] in
operating profit enhancement, and I would guess that royalties from
books and other merchandise are around 1-2 million Euros [$1.6-$3.2
million U.S. dollars] a year now. They have the opportunity to exploit
this and grow it into a real business, and that’s where the upside
lies. The initial purchase price is therefore around 10x what they will
see in immediate profits, so it’s a reasonable price to pay.
We
also exchanged a couple of emails with videogame agent Keith Boesky,
whose acerbic observations about the videogame industry can be found at
his A Tree Falling In the Forest blog. His reaction was as follows:
Ubi has done an amazing job building the brand and they are
clearly cementing the future. The expanded rights allow them to ensure
to ensure consistency of timing and quality across all media.
Definitely a great investment.
Since his Boesky & Company
represents the Ludlum estate, which holds the rights to Robert Ludlum's
various novels and intellectual property, including the Jason Bourne
series of books, we asked Boesky whether he saw any similarities
between Ubisoft's deal with Tom Clancy and what the Ludlum estate has
done. He answered:
I am the videogame agent for the estate. Henry Morrison represents the literary rights and ICM represents film and television.
Vivendi only has rights to games.
That's what we've got for now. More to follow as the mood strikes us.