So in my first post for this NCAA tournament blog, I confessed to being a bracketology bonehead--no matter how closely I follow college hoops, I never win bracket pools, never even come close--and in case you thought I was being falsely modest, I am proud to report that I am currently in last place in Newsweek's 15-person pool. Actually, let me be more specific: I'm in distant last place. There's almost as much daylight between me and 14th place as there is between 14th and 1st. Oy. I've already lost my national title pick (thanks, Georgetown) and another Final Four pick (thanks, Pittsburgh... actually, thanks to the entire Big East for your support). At this point, my prediction that I'll nail 1.6 of the Final Four teams is looking spot-on, assuming one of my safe, remaining choices (top seeds North Carolina and UCLA) survives the second weekend. Give me some credit: yes, I'm always wrong with my tourney picks--but at least I was right about how wrong I'd be.

With that in mind, shall we turn to the Sweet 16? It could just be the wounds I'm nursing from Duke's early exit, but the two games in the West region are the only ones that don't really get my motor going. I think UCLA--given time to rest some nagging injuries--will put its sluggish tourney start in the rearview mirror and roll past a Western Kentucky team that probably should've lost in the first round to Drake. I'm similarly uninspired by Xavier-West Virginia, which should be a nice contest between two solid, well-coached teams, but if I had to bet my house on which Sweet 16 match-up is the least likely to feature the future national champion, this is the one I'd pick.

I doubt that Wisconsin-Davidson will wind up producing the champ, either, but every game featuring The Stephen Curry Scoring Machine is officially a must-see event. I've caught both of these teams up close: once upon a time, in late 2007, when Duke was good, we blew Wisconsin off the floor and scraped past Davidson, holding Curry to 20 points and harassing him into eight turnovers. Davidson was the more impressive team then, and I hope I'm not jinxing its chances by saying it is more impressive now. Coatney, assuming your Jayhawks can survive Villanova, I assume you're pulling hard for Wisconsin? Otherwise, Kansas will find out what it's like to be Duke: the team that everyone in the country desperately wants to lose.

The remaining four games--Carolina/Washington State, Louisville/Tennessee, Memphis/Michigan State and Stanford/Texas--all look positively delicious to me. Super match-ups all around. I'm sure Washington State looks like a cake walk for Carolina, but in fact, this is exactly the kind of team that the Tar Heels should worry about. The Cougars have held their two opponents to a combined 81 points so far, and have rolled in both games with nearly as much ease as Carolina. If Wazzu can control the tempo against Carolina's speed demons, they could make a game out of this. This is the kind of plodding, scratching, frustrating contests that has "top-seed upset" written all over it. But... can Wazzu score enough to actually win? I doubt it. Wazzu played conference foes UCLA and Stanford tight in all four face-offs this season against the PAC-10's pillars of strength, but they ended up losing all four. As a Duke fan, I'm desperate for someone to knock off the Heels, and I do think we'll finally see them sweat. But I don't think their tournament ends here, especially not in what amounts to a home game in Charlotte.

At this point, I'm sure so many people have lost faith in Memphis--especially from the free-throw line, where the Tigers look like frightened kittens--that Tom Izzo's Spartans are probably the favorite. But I think teams like Memphis, ones with NBA talent striding off the bench, tend to slip into cruise control against schools they know they should beat. And they save their best for when they know everyone's watching. Everyone will be watching on Friday night--this is the late game, with a scheduled start 15 minutes after Kansas / Villanova--and I think all those studs are gonna rise to the occasion and overwhelm a solid but unspectacular Spartans team.

As for Louisville-Tennessee and Stanford-Texas, honestly, ya got me. I have no idea which way they'll go. In my bracket, I picked Tennessee and Stanford to be gone by now, and given the way they struggled past lower seeds, the prevailing wisdom seems to be that they're not long for this tournament. But Texas hardly impressed against a singularly unimpressive Miami squad, and as Coatney, our resident Big 12 expert, can attest, Coach Rick Barnes has a knack for assembling the best talent in the land and coaching it into the ground. I'm going with Stanford to pull off the upset. As for Tennessee, this is a team I've never particularly believed in, and the fact that their best player, James Lofton, had leg surgery yesterday isn't a good sign, even if he is expected to suit up tomorrow night. These are two teams that play at a furious pace, with tons of pressure, and I think Louisville will hold up better, if only because none of /their/ players had leg surgery yesterday. But there I go, putting my chips on the Big East again. Have I learned nothing?

OK, gents, over to you. Where will your attention be fixed tomorrow night and Friday?