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Posted Friday, August 17, 2007 1:21 PM

The North Wind Blows Again

Christian Caryl

--With B.J. Lee

Surely it can't be a bad thing for the leaders of the two Koreas to get together for a chat. North Korea's Dear Leader Kim Jong Il and South Korean President Roh Moo-Hyun have a lot to talk about when they get together for a summit at the end of this month. Optimists hope the meeting will boost efforts to persuade the North to get rid of its nukes. President Roh is said to be contemplating a huge program of economic aid as a reward to Pyongyang for shutting down its nuclear reactor last month.

Members of South Korea's ruling party - that's right, Roh's buddies - were especially upbeat. Small wonder. If there's one thing that can help the chances of their beleaguered party, it's a high-profile summit with the North. Most ordinary South Koreans want to see relations between their government and its Northern counterpart stay as warm as possible. Cozying up to the North is so popular with voters these days that Seoul politicians have been known to use talks with Kim as a way to boost their own electoral chances. Political junkies coined the phrase "North Wind" to describe the political benefits of inter-Korean diplomacy.

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President Roh isn't up for re-election, but he's eager to help his political allies on the Left close the gap with the conservative opposition, which is still way ahead in the polls leading up to South Korea's presidential election at the end of this year. Roh may be betting that schmoozing with Kim Jong-Il offers his best hope of evening the odds. Plus a bit of statesmanship could do wonders for the legacy of Roh's tarnished presidency. (Right now his approval ratings are under 20%.)

There's just one problem with this theory. Precisely because he's a lame duck Roh may find it hard to win any concessions from Kim. Anything agreed upon may have to be implemented by Roh's successor - and that doesn't look very likely if the next president turns out to be a member of the conservative party that appears to be poised for victory as things stand now. There are also worries about the striking haste with which the whole meeting has been arranged. The government in Seoul had already admitted, surprisingly enough, that both parties have yet to agree on an agenda.

But there's an even bigger concern that's being expressed by conservatives in Seoul as well as Korea-watchers in Washington. Is it really a good idea to give Pyongyang a windfall of this magnitude when the process of dismantling the North's nukes has only just gotten under way? Roh's government is already talking about investing billions of dollars in the North's infrastructure, part of what Roh calls a "new Marshall Plan" for Kim's devastated economy. Yet all this is being promised up front, even though the North still has a long way to go to fulfill the disarmament agreement signed at the Six-Party Talks earlier this year. Why should the North go to the trouble of revealing the rest of its weapons programs, for example, when it's going to get so many goodies regardless? To be sure, it's always a good idea to engage in dialogue - as long as you don't end up giving away the store when you do. President Roh might want to keep that in mind.

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