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Posted Thursday, August 23, 2007 4:19 PM

Latin America: Under Reconstruction

Mac Margolis

You know the rap on Latin America: the developing world's chronic underachiever, hooked on raw materials, choking on red tape, rotten with cleptocrats. And every time the world markets flutter, what part of the planet trembles the most? Latinoamérica -- sí, señor. So when the bottom dropped out of the U.S. credit market, the sultans of slump nodded knowingly. Should they have? Sure, bourses and currencies everywhere have taken hits, and it was no different south of the Rio Grande. But the biggest news out of this region lately is the disaster that didn't happen.

It took a while for word to get out, but now the rainmakers of high finance have reconnoitered. Leading the way was the investment bank Goldman Sachs, which reported in June ("Latin America: More Than Just a Commodity Player") that most Latin countries were girded for "external shocks" thanks to a raft of reforms, from beating inflation and paying down foreign debt to topping up with record levels of hard currency reserves. Better still, the Goldman said, not even a 20 percent fall in commodities prices -- enough to trigger a fullblown recession a decade ago -- would take more than a modest toll on the region's growth today. "Latin America is in the best shape in decades," GS analyst Alberto Ramos told me. Even Fitch Ratings, the Scrooge of risk analysts, sounded uncharacteristically cheery in its note on Aug. 21, saying how Latin America was looking "resilient in tough market conditions."

Consider this. Peru is a breath away from joining Chile and Mexico in the enchanted realm of "investment grade," that financial state of grace that separates reliable borrowers from the deadbeats. Ditto for Brazil, long dismissed as the sleeper of BRICs, the emerging markets dream team of Brazil, Russia, India and China. Brazilian companies accounted for ten percent of initial public stock offerings from January to July. Buying a piece of Banco Bradesco, Latin America's biggest private bank, will cost you more than stock in Citigroup, a clear sign that yesterday's longshots are morphing into tomorrow's blue chips.

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Ok, not everyone is so bullish. What happens to the Latin bonanza if China's appetite for food, fuel, and steel starts to flag, asks Bear Stearns? In some ways, Latin America has been its own worst enemy. Rigid labor laws stunt employment. High taxes and epic paperwork stifle enterprise. Ports, roads and bridges are crumbling. And aren't many of today's popular leaders taking bows for reforms made by the class acts they've followed? (To wit: Alan Garcia taking over for Alejandro Toledo in Peru, Brazil's Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for Fernando Henrique Cardoso.) Perhaps, Ramos allows, adding, "But at least they didn't squander those efforts." That's when the Gold Sachs guru gets philosophical: "When the house is on fire, you put out the fire. Then you start to rebuild."

So bring on the bricks and mortar.

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