Mac Margolis
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Oct 11, 2007 05:46 PM
Judging by all the negative ink on biofuels lately - they're too
expensive, energy inefficient, not so green, or so we're told - you'd
think the rush to rescue the world from sky-fouling fossil fuels is a
sham. That would be a shame. If there's any truth to the latest buzz
out on what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will
say next month when it weighs in with another major report on the state
of the planet, then we're already cooked.
Or so says Tim Flannery, the Australian scientist and author of "The
Weathermakers" who has become the rock star of climate scholars. Though
not a member of the climate panel, Flannery pored over the official
numbers recently and came away shaken.
Speaking to Australian Broadcasting Corporation's Lateline, on Oct. 9, he said
that the forthcoming panel report will show that the earth's atmosphere
has already passed the danger zone for the levels of gases which are
driving planetary climate change. In fact, we passed the threshold two
years ago - a decade earlier than had been predicted - when, thanks to
acclerated burning of fossil fuels, the concentrations of greenhouse
gases like carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane reached 455 parts
per million.
That's the level that scientists say will bring on at least a two
degree centigrade (3.6 farenheit) hike in averagle global temperatures,
after which all manner of environmental havoc is likely. Higher ocean
temperatures, for instance, will not only hasten the melting of polar
ice sheets and dangerously lift sea levels, but likely provoke
megadroughts and wildfires in many of the world's rainforests.
What's causing the emissions to spike? Prosperity, says Flannery.
Not just in China and India; economic growth has been the rule in many
nations. And what's driving the wheels of progress? Mostly those
expensive, inefficient, and not so green fossil fuels. In fact, instead
of redcuing their earth-baking greenhouse gas emissions, the fastest
growing nations in the developed and developing world alike are
"recarbonizing," as energy wonks put it, thanks to the usual suspects:
coal and oil.
There's been no official comment so far from IPCC insiders. Maybe they're trying to catch their breath.
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