What can Turkey actually do to hurt America, now that all Ankara’s efforts failed to convince US Congressmen not to vote on today’s Armenian genocide resolution? The answer is plenty – if they have the gumption.
Turkey argued that if Congress passed the bill, Turkey would excercise its “strategic leverage.” That’s a common Turkish argument with all foreigners – but now it's being put to the test. What does Turkey’s strategic leverage mean – or is it just verbiage? The government is under huge pressure to do something to show its disapproval. But already Prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to be backpedaling. He told CNN Turk last night that “political realities do not permit sentimentalism” and that “the consequesnce of any action should be carefully studied in the light of the common interests and links we have with the US.”
İf the Turks really wanted to hit the Americans where it hurt, they could, for instance, prohibit Turkish airspace to US military flights en route to Iraq. They could limit use of Incirlik air base, a major US Air Force hub for the region. And they could cut truck traffic between Turkey and Iraq, which accounts for 70 per cent of the Coalition’s total supplies.
Its unlikely that any such serious measures are on the cards, if only because Turkey doesn't yet want to risk a complete alieniation fron the US, and the dramatic shift of its pro-Western strategy that would entail. At the same time, a kind of turning point has been reached. Ankara is deeply disappoınted over the US failure to make good on repeated promises to rein in the Iraq-based PKK Kurdish separatists. Turkey has decided to tackle the insurgents themselves; next week the government will present a bill to parliament authorizing a cross-border incursion into Iraq.
It will almost certainly be passed. Erdogan says he wants the authorization in his pocket but will not use it until after the [Iraq] Neighbors Summit on Nov 3 in Istanbul, and will likely also hold off until after a scheduled trip to Washington to meet Bush the week after.
In the meantime Turkey has withdrawn its Ambassador from Washington, and cancelled other official visits. Congressman Brad Sherman (D-Calif) predicted last night that the only consequences of the genocide bill would be “angry words from Ankara, and then it will be over” – angering the Turks no end. But the hope is that he’s right – for Turkey’s sake, and America’s.
With reporting from Sami Kohen in Istanbul
