In Brazil these days, armor is the new normal. From bullet-proof luxury rides to the caveirão, a police assault wagon built like a tank, Brazilians have fortified themselves against the hazards of modern living. In Rio, one evangelical Christian church in a crime-ridden favela is raising a steel-plated, 30-meter containing wall to keep the flock from harm's way when the shooting starts. So fashionable is the concept these days that Brazilians have even come to believe that their charmed economy is innured to world economic downturn.

No doubt there is some ground for optimism. Inflation is under control. Hard currency reserves are topping $160 billion, a continental record. Foreign debt is history. And while the largest economy on earth skates on the edge of recession, Brazilian officials confidently project growth of 5 percent or more this year, or, if the international markets tank, "maybe a little less," shrugs Finance Minister Guido Mantega. Give us your best shot, the bulls in Brazil seem to be saying, for Latin America's drowsy  giant has not only stirred but "decoupled" - or broken free - from the vagaries of the globe's overlord economy. 

But anyone watching the stock markets lately would be forgiven for feeling woozy. Share prices have been melting on the Sâo Paulo stock exchange, losing ten percent this week alone, in lock step with the plunging Dow Jones Industrial average, the DAX, the FTSE and the rest of the alphabet soup of bourses around the world. Nothing tragic there. After all, shares on Bovespa swelled nearly 60 percent in dollars last year, so there is fat to burn. But how much? 

So far, Brazil has taken advantage of the commodities bonanza, driven largely by bottomless Chinese demand for everything from steel to soybeans. Brazil has also hedged its bets (armored up, if you prefer) by selling more of its goods to Asia, Latin America and other emerging nations, where growth is still strong. In fact, the World Bank recently predicted that not just China but the emerging markets as a whole will be barely winded, growing by over 7 percent in 2008 - and pulling the world economy in tow. The irony of the poorer half of the planet rescuing the rich will not be lost on the economic orthodoxy. 

Still, it's probably too soon for champagne. While Chinese demand will not be easily sated - the other BRICs are nibblers next to the Dragon - it cannot yet make up for the United States's lack of appetite if recession hits. The Chinese economy is only one-fifth as big as America's and has just one twentieth the per capita income, notes Waler Molano, emerging markes analyst at BCP Securities.

Not that Brazil is in grave danger. But if the world economy continues to slump, Brazil is bound to swoon as well. In fact, there's been little talk of decoupling in the boardrooms lately. After a banner year of initial public offerings in the world markets, nearly a third of the companies counting on raising fresh cash through IPOs this year have shelved their plans due to the gathering crisis, the financial daily Valor Econômico reported on Jan. 18.

Some hazards not even kevlar can stop.