Ehud Olmert hasn't gotten many breaks since he took over from an ailing Ariel Sharon as Israeli Prime Minister in early 2006. But he did get one this afternoon, when former Israeli High Court justice Eliyahu Winograd, who chaired the body investigating the conduct of the Second Lebanon War, issued his final report to a crowd of local reporters. The document's executive summary did say that the panel found "serious failures" in the Jewish state's political and military leaders during the war. But it was much more notable for what it didn't say: The report's authors declined to place blame on specific Israeli politicians. Before the report was issued, wags in the Israeli press had speculated that the commission could be critical of Olmert's handling of the last-ditch ground invasion in the final days of the war. Yet even on that count Winograd delivered a soft blow. The panel found that there was "no failure in the decision itself," and that political leaders "acted out of a strong and sincere perception of what they thought at the time was in Israel's interest." 

 

The final report makes it much more likely that Olmert will survive politically to serve his full term. Since the prime minister had been largely innoculated against Lebanon War criticisms as a result of past interim reports, it would have taken a jarring blow this time to create the kind of momentum required to force new elections. Key Olmert rivals also have little interest in pushing for early elections right now. Labor Party leader and current Defense minister Ehud Barak -- considered a likely rival of Olmert's in any early elections -- is the one politician who could force a crisis by withdrawing Labor from Olmert's governing coalition. Yet Labor is still too unpopular in recent Israeli public-opinion surveys to be competitive in an early election, making that scenario unlikely.

 

The one group that is pushing hard to dislodge Olmert -- a group of army reservists -- also had a turn of bad luck today that could make it more difficult to oust the prime minister. The reservists had been lobbying Israeli parliamentarians for the better part of the last few weeks to challenge Olmert to new elections. But this morning a thick coating of snow fell on Jerusalem -- a rare occurence that dampened the prospects for large turnouts at anti-Olmert rallies around the city. "I think most won't come now because of the snow," said one dejected reservist on Wednesday afternoon. Just one more reason why the Israeli prime minister has likely dodged another bullet.