If you're at loose ends next weekend, think about popping over to Pristina for a mini-break. The capital of Kosovo has some good restaurants--Café Boheme has lovely pasta and there are also some surprisingly yummy sushi places. But the real reason to be in Pristina is that it looks pretty darn likely that on February 17 the world will wake up to Kosovo declaring itself an independent nation. Sunday, it seems, is a strategic day for Prime Minister Hashim Thaci to make his historic announcement because the Security Council would not be able to meet in time to put out the proverbial flames of a nation emerging. The rumors are that the United States, Germany and Britain will then instantly recognize Kosovo and it's de facto a done deal. All my Balkan pals have been muttering about it for weeks. Serbia has just re-elected the Western-leaning Boris Tadic as president and last week it was announced that the European Union would be taking over from the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), which has effectively run Kosovo since the NATO war with Serbia ended in June 1999. With Tadic talking of Serbia becoming a member of the EU and the EU mission effectively moving Kosovo in the direction of eventual EU membership, all the pieces seem to have finally fallen into place.
What will independence actually mean for the nation of 2 million people, 90 percent of whom are ethnic Albanians, who have been caught in a no-man's land in terms of its status? For one thing, it will help a nation that has been crippled by economic strangleholds. Unable to apply for IMF and World Bank loans, it's little wonder that potential businesses have had trouble wooing foreign investors. Although Kosovo has been open for business for nine years, many companies have been put off because of the uncertainly (only 700 million Euros of foreign investment flowed into the country from 2001 to 2005). Agriculture, textiles and outsourcing for call centers are just some of the sectors that have good investment potential, expert say. One of the "bright spots" in the Kosovar economy, according to the World Bank, is energy and mining due to large reserves of lignite and zinc. And according to the World Bank's Business Conditions Index, Kosovo has a more business friendly environment than any other member of the ex-Yugoslavia because most business laws are in place and there is good legislative framework. Kosovo also uses the Euro as its currency, and last year the region signed up to the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA). The estimated 70 percent of the population under 35 makes a willing and able work force. There are of course still major hurdles for Kosovo--corruption is one, and tax structures that make it much cheaper to buy imports of everything from computers to cabbages. The plants that currently pump out electricity for Kosovo are on their last legs with power blackouts not uncommon. That makes it hard for businesses to produce things when there is still a dependence on generators. As one Western diplomat told me, "People should not see status as a panacea."