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Posted Monday, June 02, 2008 4:37 PM

Will tensions between Georgia and Russia boil over?

Newsweek

By Anna Nemtsova

On a sunny afternoon two Georgian police commanders stood on a tiny bridge over a dizzying mountain gorge and the roiling water of the Kodori River. They waved to Russian peacekeepers on the other side, inviting them to come across and talk to a group of foreign correspondents. After a few minutes, two Russian soldiers slowly walked to the middle of the bridge, but only to ask the reporters to please stop taking pictures of them. "We will not come over for any discussions,"one said, and walked back.

The Georgian commander in this obscure but seemingly ever worsening standoff in the Caucasus Mountains, Soso Bregvadze, said the tension is increasing to "the boiling temperature" after the Russians deployed an additional 400 paratroopers and artillery men in Kodori. In an ominous sign, Russian peacekeepers, he noted, stopped saying "Hi" to Georgians on the other side of the bridge. "Only a few weeks ago, we could have tea with Russians and take pictures of each other on this bridge," he said with a sigh. "Not any longer.

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The tension between Russia and Georgia over Abkhazia, the Georgian separatist republic, has been growing steadily since last year -- and many Georgians fear that tensions will boil over into full-scale armed conflict soon. Ever since the Black Sea enclave broke away from Georgia proper in 1992, its separatist leaders have turned to Russia for political and practical support. Russian peacekeepers who have been stationed in Abkhazia have been accused of channeling military to the separatist military forces, and in March an unmanned Georgian drone aircraft was shot down over Abkhazian airspace by a Russian military jet -- a version of events recently confirmed by a United Nations investigation. Georgia fears that as it grows closer to NATO and the European Union, the more Russia will try to destabilize the situation in Abkhazia as a way of undermining Georgia's fervently pro-Western President Mikheil Saakashvili

In the last two years, Russian authorities issued Russian passports and paid Russian pensions to a majority of Abkhaz population, despite protests of Georgian officials. On April 19, Vladimir Putin, then the lame-duck president, issued a decree opening direct trade, transportation and political relations with the secessionist territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia - something the Georgians said was all but a declaration of war. They also say it is tantamount to recognizing the ethnic cleansing of Georgians that took place here, in a dark,earlier chapter of the conflict in the early 1990s.

Both Russia and Akhaz officials say that 2,542 soldiers were based in Abkhazia, the maximum permitted under the agreement of ceasefire Russia signed in 1994. Georgian officials say that by deploying additional forces last month and increasing the number of forces up to 3500 soldiers, Russia broke the agreement. Every day for the last few weeks both Russian and Georgian news agencies report the increasing numbers of soldiers on both sides of this mountain boundary. To keep the information about the number of Russian military in Abkhazia up to date, on April 20th, Georgian police forces sent an Israeli-made drone to fly over Abkhazia. According to a U.N.investigation, the drone was shot down the same day by a Russian fighter aircraft--either a MIG-29 or an Su-27. The Georgians posted a video,shot by the drone itself, on the Internet. The UN report noted that Russia's action "undercuts the ceasefire and separation of forces regime."

President Mikheil Saakshvili called the statement, at least, a victory. For the first time since the war, Europe finally woke up and recognized Russian aggression, he said. “This is not Georgia the Kremlin is against, but America and NATO," he said. "Unlucky Georgia, as American ally in the former Soviet Union, happened to be between two fires."

"We are worried about possible Russian provocations related with Kosovo situation. We hope to avoid the war. I don't think anyone sane in Russia would want such trouble to happen in Caucuses."

He said if Russia ever gave Georgia and Abkhazia a chance to negotiate honestly, the conflict would have been resolved long ago:"The Russian FSB does not hide the fact that they control the situation in Abkhazia, and the Abkhaz president does not answer the phone when I try to call. Even if we had a chance to sit and talk to Abkhaz people in some room, there would always be an elephant in that room breaking up the furniture."

On Monday, Georgian Independence Day, Saakashvili received a greeting message from Russian President Medvedev that offered some glimmer of hope. “I sincerely wish the Georgian people, with whom we are bounded by many centuries of friendship and common spirit, will live in peace and prosperity," the message said. "I count on cooperation between our countries in the interest of developing friendly neighboring relations."

On the border, though, the gorge still separates the evergrowing numbers of troops on both sides.

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Member Comments

Posted By: Johnsm (July 17, 2008 at 12:01 PM)

See truth About Abkhazia:

http://digitalcaucasus.blogspot.com

Russian Military Practices Peace Enforcement in Conflict Zones

Civil Georgia, Tbilisi / 15 Jul.'08 / 17:14

Russia’s North Caucasian Military District (SKVO) launched on July 15 large scale military exercises, Kavkaz-2008, involving 8,000 personnel from the Army, the Interior Ministry and border guards of the Federal Security Service, Russian news agencies reported.

“The main goal of the exercises is to assess a joint response of military administrations against the background of a terrorist threat in the south of Russia,” Interfax and Itar-Tass news agencies quoted an aide to the commander of the Russian land forces, Igor Konashenkov, as saying. “In connection with an escalation in tension in the Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian conflict zones, issues related to involvement in special peace enforcement operations in the zones of armed conflict will also be worked out during the exercises.”

He also said that around 700 pieces of military hardware were involved in the exercises.

Meanwhile, about 2,000 soldiers, mainly from the United States and Georgia, launched military exercises Immediate Response-2008 at the Vaziani base outside Tbilisi on July 15.

Smaller units from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine are also taking part in the exercises.

U.S. Brigadier General William B. Garrett told journalists in Vaziani that the main purpose of the exercises was to increase the cooperation between U.S. and Georgian forces.

The exercises, which were planned by the U.S. European Command, were first announced in January, 2008.


Posted By: Johnsm (July 17, 2008 at 12:00 PM)

Tbilisi Protests Russia’s Military Exercises

Civil Georgia, Tbilisi / 16 Jul.'08 / 18:53

The Georgian Foreign Ministry said that the recent military exercises launched by Russia’s North Caucasian Military District (SKVO) close to the Georgian border, is a continuation of Russia’s aggressive policy.

Eight thousand personnel from the Army, the Interior Ministry and border guards of the Federal Security Service are involved in the military exercises code named Kavkaz-2008, which were launched on July 15. The Russian side said that “in connection with an escalation in tension in the Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian conflict zones, issues related to involvement in special peace enforcement operations in the zones of armed conflict will also be worked out during the exercises.” On July 10 Colonel General Sergey Makarov, the commander of SKVO, said that Russia’s North Caucasian Military District was ready to provide assistance to Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia and South Ossetia if needed.

“Not a single document on conflict resolution authorizes the armed forces of the Russian Federation to carry out any activities on the territory of Georgia,” the Georgian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on July 16. “Hence, the mentioned statements of Russian military officials cannot be considered other than a threat of military intervention and aggression against a sovereign state.”

Tbilisi claims that Russia’s “aggressive policy” poses a threat to peace and stability in the entire Caucasus region.

“They should understand in Russia that as a result of such a development of events, the increasing tensions and armed attacks in [Russia’s republics of] Chechnya, Ingusheti, Dagestan and Kabardino-Balkaria between local rebels and Russian law enforcement agencies may spill into in a wide-scale destabilization, that, in our opinion, would not be in Russia’s interests,” the Georgian Foreign Ministry said. “We insistently call on the Russian side to refrain from irresponsible statements and stop aggressive policy against Georgia.”


 
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