By Jonathan Kent
Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim is again under arrest on charges of sexual misconduct that appear to be politically motivated. Police detained him today in Kuala Lumpur before he was to appear voluntarily to face questioning over new charges that he violated Malaysia’s anti-sodomy law with a political aide. Days before his latest arrest, Anwar told Newsweek that the new charges against him were “disgusting” and said elements of the current government had framed him.
Although officials deny it, his case indeed has the markings of low politics and appears to be linked to the charismatic Anwar’s unexpected staying power in Malaysia. In 1998, Anwar was
arrested for sodomy and corruption, triggering widespread
anti-government protests. He was convicted of both crimes and served
six years in prison before Malaysia’s current leader, Prime Minister
Abdullah Badawi, ordered him to be released in 2004 (the sodomy conviction was later overturned). Anwar was freed, analysts said at the time, because Prime Minister Abdullah deemed him a spent force more dangerous inside than outside prison. But Anwar’s intelligence and dynamism – juxtaposed with the dearth of either quality in the ranks of the ruling coalition – have made him as popular today as he was in the mid-1990s when he served as strongman Mahathir Mohamad’s deputy and erstwhile successor.
In March, the loose opposition coalition Anwar now leads chalked up a major election victory, winning control of five states and nearly tossing the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition from power.
There's reason to believe that the new charges of sexual misconduct won't derail Anwar's political career. Unlike 1998, no ruling party leader commands nearly the obedience or fear Mahathir did a decade ago. Abdullah’s government, having suffered the worst drubbing the ruling coalition has experienced since Malaysian independence in 1957, is also unpopular. And Malaysia’s long-fractious opposition has united its ethnic Malay, Chinese and Indian communities to great effect. Indeed, the March outcome showed disgruntled Malaysians that they have the power to oust the current government at the ballot box.
Anwar’s arrest rachets up the political risk to both sides. The opposition needs to tread carefully because the government could seize on any outbreak of violence as an excuse to declare emergency rule. It did so in 1969 after bloody race riots, setting Malaysia’s democratization back a generation. Nonetheless, peaceful “people power” demonstrations would put huge pressures on the government and potentially cause several disaffected minority partners to break away from the ruling coalition. Before his arrest, Anwar was aggressively wooing them to switch sides and help his opposition allies for a new government.
Prime Minister Abdullah’s government is also in a tough spot. Treating Anwar harshly would surely damage its relations with western powers. Uncertainty (a condition in no short supply) has already begun to scare foreign investors in Malaysia. Just as in finance, going back to the trumultuous 1990s is a worst case scenario for Malaysian politics.
