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Posted Monday, October 13, 2008 9:09 PM

Europe's Bank Bailout: Is It Enough?

Newsweek

By Stefan Theil 

After months of insisting that they would need no Paulson-style bank bailout, European governments acted swiftly on Monday. Within hours of each other, the leaders of Germany, France, Italy and Spain announced a total of over €1 trillion ($1.35 trillion) in lending guarantees and bank recapitalization funds. In addition, Britain injected $62.5 billion into three of the country's biggest banks in return for large government shareholding stakes. The markets loved it. German stocks alone were up 11.4 percent on the day—the biggest jump in history.

The moves came none too soon. One of the worries that froze bank lending and sent markets crashing last week was whether and when the Europeans would act and do their part to avert a full-blown global meltdown. That worst-case outcome now seems a lot less likely. So far, so good.

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Will it work, and is it enough? As of Monday, it was yet unclear how any of the bailout plans – America's TARP included - will resolve the underlying problem of bad debt and toxic assets--the estimated $700 billion still lurking on the balance sheets of US and European banks, according to Bob McKee of London's Independent Strategy. (The estimates vary, but the bad assets are clearly there, or the banks wouldn't be so distrustful of each other.) None of the bailout plans include clear, systematic rules about how these dud assets will be written off -- or whether banks will drag them along for years, Japanese-deflation-style. The unanswered question is how these debts will be unwound – and whether that process leads to a sharp contraction of credit to the "real" economy, i.e. companies and consumers. If so, there may not be a meltdown. But there would be much worse to come beyond just the mild stagnation in economic growth that the current numbers signal.

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Member Comments

Posted By: tico (October 14, 2008 at 2:08 PM)

The financial crisis is consumer driven. Bank problems are merely symptoms, but not the root cause. Hence, bailing out Wall Street Fat Cats is unlikely to resolve the protracted crisis. Whether, the Bush Administration and Congress want to acknowledge it or not; the root cause of the crisis was high energy prices. Rising energy prices, particularly as it relates to transportation, caused a significant reallocation of consumers’ outlays to cover the cost of energy. As a result, many consumers could not keep up with mortgage and other payments.

Given money to banks will not increase consumers' income. Therefore, demand, which is a function of income and prices, will not increase, except if the price of crude keeps falling.

The solution to the crisis is less complicated that politicians have made it to be, mainly because they failed to properly diagnose the root cause of the crisis. The solution is to first ensure that speculators cannot bid up the price of crude oil on the futures market and secondly temporarily restore the income of homeowners in foreclosure and mortgage problems to their pre-2003 levels. That is, prior to the invasion of Iraq when crude oil prices were low.

By enabling homeowners in foreclosure and mortgage problems to resume payments to banks and recoup their home via time-limited vouchers, flow of funds would be restored to financial institutions and confidence to the housing market, see http://www.jethroproject.com/tjpecon_solution.htm.


 
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