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Posted Monday, November 17, 2008 5:09 PM

The Colombian Trade Disconnect

Mac Margolis
It's a long way from Washington to Bogotá, but that distance is growing. The problem is not a reshuffling of the geological plates, but a seismic shift in United States politics that has left millions of people in the lower tier of the Americas apprehensive and free traders running for cover.

What's a stake is the Free Trade Agreement–FTA in policy speak–between the U.S. and Colombia, which would grease the wheels of commerce between two of the most traditional allies in the western hemisphere. Díos knows the world economy could use some greasing. But indications are that's not what the Democrat party, which come January will own an even bigger majority of seats in both the Senate and the House, has in mind. Not for Colombia, at least.

Bolstered by trade unions and protectionist industries, from the corn belt to the rust belt, the Democrats have never been enthusiastic about free trade. A notable exception was the administration of Bill Clinton, who midwived the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), but the mood on Capitol Hill has become far more insular since then. The Columbia pact was dear to the outgoing administration of George W. Bush, but he is something of a toxic asset at the moment. What will president Barack Obama do?

It would take a symposium of semioticians to deconstruct Obama's campaign messages. A sois disant free trader, and even an enthusiast of globalization, he nonetheless missed few opportunities on the campaign trail to slam unfettered trade, especially NAFTA . He voted against the Colombia trade pact. Rahm Emanuel, Clinton’s field marshal in the battle for NAFTA, and now Obama’s chief of staff, was standing next to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi last April when she deep-sixed the idea of Congress expediting the Colombia deal. And last week Emanuel snuffed any hopes of resurrecting the pact as a rider on another economic stimulus package. Some analysts believe Obama may yet sign off on the Colombia deal. But you wouldn’t know it from the brooding among lawmakers.

The Democrats and their sponsors alleged no dearth of motives for killing the deal. First, they cited Bogotá’s spotty record on human rights, saying that Colombian trade unionists especially were in peril. Now they’ve found new ammunition in the General Accounting Office report last week showing that the government’s long and expensive war on drug trafficking has flopped. So why “reward failure,” the anti trade chorus asks? 

In the wind chamber of Washington politics it’s hard to sort out the substance from the bunk in these arguments. But some perspective is in order. First, the deals boosters note, Colombia is hardly the only nation losing the war on drugs. (Cultivation of coca increased 15 percent from 2000 to 2006, and cocaine production is up 4 percent). Afghanistan, Bolivia and Peru have all seen well documented increases in the cultivation of narcotic plants–coca in the Andes, opium in Afghanistan–and drug trafficking. “By its nature, the drug industry is a moving target,” says Latin American expert Michael Shifter, of the Inter-American Dialogue.

The irony is that the heightened scrutiny falls on Colombia as the government in Bogotá has made dramatic improvements in security and cracked down hard human rights abuses. With bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress, Plan Colombia doubled the police and all but demolished the “narcoguerrilla group” FARC. Right wing military groups, who promoted their own bloodbaths, were also brought under heel.

Murders fell 40 percent and kidnappings by 75 percent since 2002, when Àlvaro Uribe became president. Violence against trade unionists has also subsided. Such improvements convinced the U.S. State Dept. to certify Colombia’s record on human rights and safety in 2007 and drew praise from the GAO in its Nov. 5 report, even as the U.S. auditors noted the government’s failure to curb the drug trade.

Human rights groups beg to differ. Recently, all of Colombia was shocked to learn that while right-wing paramilitary sponsored violence had subsided, rogue troops within the national armed forces were killing dozens of civilians and dumping their bodies in FARC controlled territory, in order to inflate the rebel body count. The scandal jolted Uribe into action; he fired nearly two dozen army officials, including generals, and scrapped the body count in favor of capture and surrender of rebels as the yardstick for the war on the narco guerrillas.

Yet the Congress seems unmoved. “Colombia has made progress, but the goalpost keeps shifting,” says Shifter.

That may be shortsighted. U.S. companies do more than $8 billion of business with Colombia every year. The trade pact would spare them a 35 percent average tariff on exports to the South American nation.

That fact has not been lost on the Europeans, who are poised to sign their own agreement on a free trade deal between the EU and Colombia. Starting in June of next year, $3 billion in yearly European exports will enter the South American nation duty free–thanks in good measure to the safer conditions that the U.S. taxpayers paid for.
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Posted By: andresfusion (November 22, 2008 at 1:30 PM)

Canada just approved Free Trade with Colombia and as their president Harper said "we are anxious to sell our products before the Americans". Europe is in talks to sign another trade deal. What its wrong with congress? Approved the Trade deal already! before its too late and our competitors start selling their products!

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Posted By: Anonymous (November 21, 2008 at 4:03 AM)

PingBack from http://bill-clinton.bestpoliticalblogs.co.uk/2008/11/17/why-it-matters-the-colombian-trade-disconnect/

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Posted By: vicenteduq (November 19, 2008 at 3:50 PM)

Bush and Uribe are great excellent close friends. But what an Irony ! ... Uribe will go into History as a GREAT STATESMAN !! ... The pacifier of a country that was in total anarchy and chaos. Now Colombia is organized and many planes of extradited narcos fly to the USA. Those are the guys that kill Trade Unionists, not Uribe.

You can not fix hell in five minutes and the popularity of Uribe is the Greatest of all Presidents, sometimes 90% or more, after many military victories. Thanks to the USA for frienship and support !!

You are going to throw the baby instead of the dirty water of the bath.

The fact is that the Bush Administration has an excellent record in Africa and Latin America. Please Everybody Be honest and acknowledge that the Bush Government has excellent relations with Africa and Latin America and that there are no grave mistakes or blunders. Excellent Diplomacy.

McCain spoke of the Colombian Trade Agreement as a NO BRAINER in a debate with Obama. He is right.

http://milenials.blogspot.com/

http://raciality.blogspot.com/

Vicente Duque

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