Every four years, come the World Cup, fans of European soccer boast about the continent's extraordinary depth and gripe that first-class European teams are forced to stay home while inferior teams from the rest of the world fill out the 32-nation field. (Europe will have 13 spots at the 2010 World Cup in South Africa).
Europe has certainly shown off that prowess--or call it parity--as the qualifying rounds for the second most important international competition, Euro 2008, wind up over the next week. Which is why the most exciting sports action Saturday will not be the Ohio State-Michigan rivalry, with the Rose Bowl at stake, but across the pond where two of the world's great soccer powers, Italy and England, face the prospect of elimination from Euro 2008, scheduled for next June in Austria and Switzerland.
Their fates could be settled by two games. In one, Italy, which stands third in Group B (only two teams qualify from each group) travels to Glasgow to play a Scottish team that is one point ahead of Italy in the standings and undefeated--5-0--at home. If Scotland wins, it qualifies. Then Italy would have to rely on Ukraine to beat France, the World Cup runner-up, next Wednesday. At a minimum, a Scottish victory would assure that out one of the two World Cup finalists will be knocked out of next year's tourney. Italy, however, is famous for playing it close and almost always getting a result when it needs it. And at least the Azzurri control their own destiny on the field.
England is not so fortunate, having lost that luxury--and possibly its Euro chances--last month when it was defeated 2-1 in Russia, blowing the lead and then the game in the final 20 minutes. While England currently sits in second place just ahead of Russia in Group E, Russia has two games left to England's one and is guaranteed a place in the Euro field if it wins both contests. Since Russia is a mortal lock at home next Wednesday against winless Andorra, England's last real hope lies just outside Tel Aviv where a tough Israeli team will host Russia on Saturday. But in an adding-insult-to-injury development, Israel will be missing its best player, who hurt himself after scoring a hat trick while playing for Liverpool. If Russia wins, England is left praying for a miracle parlay: group leader Croatia would have to lose to Macedonia on Saturday and then again to England next Wednesday at Wembley--and, if I can parse the tie-breakers correctly, by at least three goals.
By this time next week, soccer fans may be left contemplating: Is a Euro really a Euro without Italy and England?