As a Bostonian (and longtime Pats season ticket-holder), I have spent the entire season "talking" NFL with senior editor Devin Gordon, a New Yorker and football diehard. Two days before the big game, we go public with our latest e-mail exchange:

Mark: When last you and and I conversed publicly, so to speak, it was in Newsweek's year-end issue, where we discussed the divergent paths of our hometown teams. Mine: up, up, up. Yours: down, down, down. The Giants had just been spanked at home by the Redskins and I'm guessing you thought their chances of making it to the Super Bowl were about as slim as the chances of your beloved Mets landing Johan Santana. What in tarnation happened? It had to be something more than Jessica Simpson and Mexico.

Devin: We're back, baby! No matter what happens on Sunday (and let's just say I don't expect good things for Big Blue down in Arizona) at the very least, the events of the past two weeks have given me the strength to remove the brown paper bag from my head. As a lifelong Mets fan, I feel like I've got a baseball-specific brand of Tourette's syndrome: every hour or two, for no reason at all, I blurt out "Johan Santana!" and then giggle nervously for about 30 seconds. I'm so excited about Johan that I've actually had trouble focusing on the Super Bowl this year, though another explanation could be that I'm a Jets fan, not a Giants fan. Ordinarily it would churn my stomach to root for the G-Men, but this game is about more than football, more than sports. My wife is from Boston, so I'm partial to your lovely little town--how's that for condescending?--but this newfangled universe in which Boston wins absolutely everything is getting ridiculous. Enough already. Order must be restored. In the name of New York pride, I'm crossing party lines just this once and pulling for the Giants. Not that it'll do any good, of course. I smell a blowout.

Mark: This is supposed to be football, but I've got to get my "oye como va" moment. I think the Red Sox simply outmaneuvered the Yankees, a team that really could have used Santana at the top of the rotation, until young Steinbrenner got his back up--and the Mets were the ultimate beneficiaries. I know this "Boston rules" thing must be tough to take from afar, especially from close afar in New York. But even though you are a young and callow man, you know your football history. And you know what we in Boston have endured. I went to the very first Pats game in 1960 and let me tell you, there is a reason they were known as the Patsies. When they went to their one AFL Championship Game, they went with a 7-6-1 record and lost to San Diego 51-10 with the Chargers passing for more than 300 yards and rushing for more than 200. Since the NFL-AFL merger, 38 seasons now, do you know how many times the Patriots have had the worst record in the league? Should average out to about one time per team. We've been number one worst four times (and drafted Jim Plunkett, Ken Sims, Irving Fryar and Drew Bledsoe for our troubles). We've suffered.

There are about 30 of us who ride a bus to Foxborough for every game. During certain seasons, it was me and my cousin Jack and empty seats on the bus and in the stadium. We'd get on the phone Friday and start begging folks to come--50 yard line seats, 20 rows up--and come up empty. We've suffered plenty. I'd say Sunday is a day for Giants fans to suffer except I think they are in the "just happy to be there" mode. I am already on record in my column saying I expect the Patriots to dominate. Now I know there can be funny bounces, lucky breaks, bad calls and upsets. I actually picked the Pats to upset the Rams six years ago because I thought it was a good matchup for New England. (It wasn't just a "homer" pick; I had picked the Steelers to beat the Patriots in the AFC Championship.) But I don't see anywhere that the Giants have the advantage. Is there a plausible upset scenario that doesn't depend on those funny bounces etc.?

Devin: There is no way I can compete with a baby-boomer Bostonian in the realm of sports suffering--though I do feel obliged to repeat that I'm a METS fan and a JETS fan and (God help me) a KNICKS fan. Now where did I put that brown paper bag? But enough about who's the sitting president of the pity party. On to football.

A plausible upset scenario that doesn't depend on funny bounces? OK, here goes. Stop me if you heard this one before, cuz it ain't rocket science. For the Giants to win this game, they'll have to do it, as the cliché goes, in the trenches. Three keys to victory:

(1) Destroy Tom Brady. New York's vaunted pass rush, specifically Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora, needs to pummel Brady until he can't tell Tedy Bruschi from Gisele Bundchen. The problem is, the way the NFL calls roughing the passer these days, this is extremely difficult to do. (There are many reasons Brady threw 50--FIFTY!--touchdown passes this season, and officiating is just one of them.) If Brady stays on his feet, he'll have plenty of time to rouse Randy Moss from his playoff nap. And if Moss has a big game, the Giants can't win. Period.
(2) Control the clock. The key player for the Giants isn't Eli Manning--it's Brandon Jacobs. New York tried to win a shootout with the Pats in Week 17. Didn't work. Won't work this time, either. The new plan? Dominate time of possession and keep Brady off the field. The only way that happens is if Jacobs is consistently breaking off 4-, 5-, 6-yard runs on first down. New York's offensive line has to clear room for him, but he also has to punish the Pats' aging linebackers and shake a few tackles. If Jacobs has a bad game, the Giants can't win. Period.
(3) Convert on third down. Manning has been unexpectedly smooth in the playoffs, but sorry, I'm not sold on him yet. To win this Super Bowl, he can't just avoid mistakes like he's done so far. He needs to make a few plays, and in the NFL, as another cliché goes, quarterbacks get paid for converting on third down. Lost in Manning's terrific playoff run was a play in the Dallas game that he DIDN'T make and that could've haunted the Giants all spring: a third-and-5 with just over two minutes left in the 4th quarter that would've killed the clock if Eli had converted. He didn't. He got sacked, and Dallas got the ball back with 1:50 left. If Tony Romo had led the Cowboys to a score, I'm convinced that Eli's third-down flop would've been the story of the game. So… even if my first two keys to victory come to pass, it won't mean squat if Manning can't convert late third downs. Because Tom Brady can, and will. If Eli doesn't come through on third down, the Giants can't win. Period. But let's look at the big picture. The reason none of these keys -- or not enough of them, at least -- will happen? Because of a guy I haven't mentioned yet: Bill Belichick. That fella--he knows things.

Mark: I think you got it right--your second point more than your first. The Giants have a terrific pass rush, but the Patriots protect well. Brady passed 42 times against the Giants in their first meeting and was only sacked once--and the Pats were missing the entire right side of their line--Neal, Kaczur and Kyle Brady. (Incidentally, Kevin Faulk, who has taken over the Troy Brown unsung/heart-and-soul role, for the Pats, is an extraordinary pass blocker too.) Moreover, Tom Brady has shown he can handle a big rush. The Giants' only hope is that its solid offfensive line creates some holes for Jacobs and that those old Pats linebackers in the middle, Bruschi and Seau, can't smack him down. That's why Plaxico Burress, regardless of what Brady said, was right to pick the Giants winnning by a low score. Ball control is the only possible winning strategy, not a shootout. Color me not convinced on Eli either. He's had a few very good games, but as I mentioned in my column, a wretched 4th quarter against the Pats when the game was on the line. It has helped that his receivers have begun holding onto the ball and it has helped that Shockey is no longer out there waving his arms and demanding the ball. But this is still the 25th-ranked passer in the NFL this past season. I see Eli doing just fine as the Pats concentrate on shutting down the run--and then when the Pats move ahead and Eli has to pass, they ratchet up the pressure. I think then we'd be likely to see something like we did the last time they met--Eli in the 4th quarter 8 for 12 for a grand total of 45 yards, with one fumble and one interception. And that won't get it done.

Devin: OK, so we're on the same page--both about the probable result and how the Giants maybe, possibly, with a little help from a higher power, can avoid it. Let's move onto another aspect of the game, one that has factored mightily into each of the Patriots' three Super Bowl victories: field goal kicking. If this game does come down to Steven Gostkowski or Lawrence Tynes, who feels better about their guy? Bearing in mind that (1) Gostkowski has an awful lot to live up to here, and (2) Tynes won't be getting any second chances against New England.

Mark: You found my vulnerable spot, as you always seem able to do. The Boston Globe had a story today headlined "Armchair QBs advised to take a stress timeout," which cited a new study in the New England Journal of Medicine linking soaring rates of heart attacks and other cardiovascular incidents in Bavaria to the 2006 World Cup in Germany. The story says: Cardiac episodes were four times higher for [people with previously diagnosed heart conditions] when the German teams was playing than on nongame days." Previously healthy folks were at significantly increased risk too.  Fortunately, I go in with a clean bill of health, but being of a certain age the story did strike a chord. I called my cousin Jack and said that the only heart attack-inducing scenario I could imagine was having to watch Gostowski line up to kick one with the game on the line. The guy is a perfectly good kicker, might even turn into a great one, but I don't exactly have that Vinatieri feeling when he lines one up. I pray it doesn't come down to that. Then again Vinatieri wasn't Vinatieri until he did it. I was getting ready to brush the snow off my hat and go home when Vinatieri kicked the first of his many famous clutch field goals in that Snow Bowl against Oakland. Who knew?

Devin: I remember this time a year ago, watching the Colts-Bears Super Bowl with you up in Boston. At some point early on, when it looked like the Bears might hang around, we discussed which would be the more apt ending if the game's outcome hinged on a Vinatieri field-goal try for his new Indianapolis teammates. I think we agreed--not vindictively, but as journalists who love a good story--that the most dynamite outcome would be a Vinatieri miss. I bring this up for one reason: the kick never happened. Which is how these games usually go. I might be mistaken, but I believe that Vinatieri's three game-winning kicks for the Patriots are the only three game-winning kicks in Super Bowl history. I bet it stays that way. It'll be an easy night for Boston-area cardiologists. So is it prediction time, then? I've always believed that the Patriots absorbed the Giants' best punch back in December, when the Giants had home-field advantage and the Patriots had nothing but history to play for. Now the Pats have everything to play for, and the Giants no longer have home-field advantage. I also believe that the only thing more delicious than the prospect of Bill Belichick getting a shot at Eli Manning is the prospect of Bill Belichick getting ANOTHER shot at Eli Manning. Ya think Bill might've picked up a few things? We all know Belichick didn't show his full hand the last time around, just in case these teams met again. We'll see everything he's got on Sunday. Final score: New England wins, 38-17.

Mark: You're not old enough to remember. But Jim O'Brien also kicked one in overtime for the Colts, the Baltimore Colts that is, back in prehistoric days. Anyway, I know I am setting myself up for a terrible fall--and all those mocking e-mails--but I am less nervous about the Giants than I was about any of the last three Patriots Super Bowl opponents. Can I offer a suitable quote from my friends at Cold, Hard Football Facts: "New York's inexplicable postseason run reminds us of the post- drug-days Aerosmith 'comeback' album. It's been done with mirrors." I really do think the Giants hit us with their best shot already and came up short. And despite the notion that they could have won the game, by early in the 4th quarter, they were two scores down. If i'm nervous--and of course I am--it's because of what's at stake. My many superstitious friends have all warned me about the perils of hubris. But as conscious as we are of the great Super Bowl upsets--the Jets over the Colts and the Pats over the Rams--the really great teams, those that we talk about as all-timers, have always won when they get to the Super Bowl. The Pats are an all-timer, a team for the ages. And the coach, with two weeks to a plan and a young quarterback to play against, is lethal. Pats win 34-13.