Welcome to the first installment of Expertinent, a regular Stumper column featuring interviews with political experts on the news of the day. This afternoon, Rasmussen released poll showing former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee tied with Fred Thompson for second place in Iowa with 18 percent--a full five points higher than his previous best, and only seven points shy of longtime frontrunner Mitt Romney. So I called up Dennis Goldford, professor of politics at Drake University in Des Moines and one the leading analysts of Iowa's political landscape, to talk about what Huckabee is doing right in the Hawkeye State--and whether he can actually win.

Is Huckabee really doing this well in Iowa, or are the numbers deceptive?
Huckabee's been doing right what Thompson's been doing wrong. He's working really hard. He's extremely personable. He likes to talk to people. And on paper, in terms of that core constituency among Republicans in Iowa, he ought to be doing well. He's caught in that classic vicious circle: he doesn't get a lot of campaign funding and media attention because people don't think he's electible. But people don't think he's electible because he's not getting much funding and media attention

But, you know, the Republican field is in such flux, really, that it may be his particular time. You've got to peak at the right moment. Four years ago, Dean peaked four months toon soon. I'm not saying Huckabee can overtake Romney, but...

Does he even need to overtake Romney?
No, no he doesn't. If he can come within a half-a-dozen points of Romney, then that's the major story. You know, look at the story that came out of the straw poll, when he came within 13 points of Romney. It's all about expectations. For those social and religious conservatives, he could be the guy. And they're the tail that wags the dog here--they're not a majority, but they're a huge proportion, 30 to 40 percent of Republican voters here perhaps, and they especially show up for caucuses.

As far as viability, couldn't higher poll numbers like today's create their own momentum?
That's right. Look how much more viable he looks now than before the Straw Poll. Going from negative 10 to negative four is still not great, perhaps, but it's definitely a big improvement.

A poll number like this one, when it becomes well-known, both reports a political fact and self-becomes a political fact. It's not just reporting political news, it's making political news. People look at that and say, "Maybe I ought to take a second look at Huckabee. Maybe he does have a shot."

Nationwide, much has been written about how social conservatives are none too pleased with the Republican field. Is there a lot of dissatisfaction in Iowa with Romney as the frontrunner? Or are they comfortable with him?
Don't forget that Romney's been the only one on television. He's had a huge media buy ever since late winter. And he's just here constantly. But there's something that seems plastic or artificial about Romney. He's almost a robotic CEO type. Whereas someone like Huckabee is what people expected Thompson to be and what he hasn't turned out to be, so far--someone who's real down-home and personable. He's just someone you'd be comfortable sitting in a cafe having a cup of coffee with.

Is that particularly important in Iowa?
Oh certainly. Absolutely. People generally across the country want to have a sense that they're comfortable personally with the president. Even if, as is mostly the case, their personal connection is through a television. But especially in Iowa--like in New Hampshire, where people say, "I don't know if I support him yet; I've only met him three or four times"--that chance of relating to somebody in human terms is crucial. And for Romney still, the great factor among evangelicals, although some support him, is what they're going to do about his Mormonism. That's still out there. Also the question of the sincerity of his positions. There's an old saying that "liberals never learn anything." Well, conservatives never forget anything. And they don't forget that Romney was in many ways as liberal or moderate on social issues as Giuliani still is. They don't trust Giuliani for it.

What about Thompson, who's tied with Huckabee in the Rasmussen poll?
He hasn't been around much. He doesn't seem like he's willing to pay his dues to do this.

And someone who's not willing to do retail politics is not going to do well in Iowa, of all places.
That's right. Thompson was just this cipher. I told folks during the debate in Des Moines that Thompson was just another word for "none of the above." He was a place for Republicans to park their hopes and aspirations while they're dissatisfied with the current Republican crowd. I also said that he'd never be as popular as the day he announces. And so far, that's been the case.

Are these latest poll numbers a sign that social conservatives are breaking with Thompson and Romney and getting more comfortable with Huckabee?
That could well be. He's a social conservative without fangs. Huckabee's views are as conservative as anybody's in the social conservative movement. But they're almost Reaganesque in their geniality. That's one argument for his electibility--and the poll numbers definitely help.

What does Huckabee need to do between now and the caucuses to ensure a strong finish?
He's got to try to persuade people that they can make him a viable contender. That a vote for him is not a wasted vote or a protest vote. That if they have the will to believe they can make him a real player.

Won't that be tough without more money?
But don't forget, in 1996 "President" Phil Gramm said, "I've got the best friend any politician could want--ready money." Notice I said "President" Phil Gramm. I was at the station here where I do election analysis. It was caucus night, it was 6:00PM, he was stopping in and caucuses weren't for another hour. And yet he walked into that station and there was the smell of political death about him. He knew it was done, even though he had a ton of money. So money's necessary, but not sufficient. You can't buy the caucuses.