Liberal and conservative activists like to say that the press hearts Huckabee, favoring him for the last month with a flurry of overheated headlines. There's some truth to that. (Stumper = guilty as charged.) But it's getting impossible to ignore that Iowans are also rather fond of the other man from Hope--especially if you take a look at the latest CBS News/New York Times poll, out today.
Plenty of analysis will focus on Huckabee's share of support among likely Republican caucusgoers--at 21 percent, it's his strongest showing to date (and only 6 points behind frontrunner Mitt Romney). But the most important stats are buried deeper in the memo. First off, Huckabee fans are far more attached to their candidate than Romneyites. When asked "Is your mind made up?," only 33 percent of Romney supporters said yes, while 67 percent said it's "too early to say"; a full 50 percent of Huckabee's supporters are sold. Secondly, Huckabee is the second choice of 17 percent of likely caucusgoers, tying Giuliani and topping every other contender--an important distinction considering that caucusing involves real Iowans openly expressing their preferences and trying to convince their neighbors to join them. Nineteen percent of respondents say Huckabee "shares their values" (Romney: 13 percent), and 20 percent say he's a conservative (Romney: 10 percent). Finally, 43 percent of likely caucusgoers don't know how they feel about the former Arkansas governor, compared to 26 percent who are still unsure about his Massachusetts counterpart. Huckabee has a lot more room to grow.
Which begs the question: could Huckabee actually win Iowa? So far, the odds have favored him finishing a strong second. But if these patterns hold--with Thompson's decline, Huckabee is cementing his status as Iowa's "conservative, shares-our-values" alternative to Romney--I think he has a shot at first. Huckabee's rivals have their fair share of problems, and I'm not sure the knocks against him--a lack of cash; a mixed record on taxes--will stick. Everyone likes an underdog (including the press, which considers him a Cinderella story and will keep the coverage coming). And only six percent of Iowans list taxes as their top concern (not to mention that Huckabee has pledged to fight future hikes if elected). As 63-year-old Clear Lake, Iowa shopkeeper Susan Poole told me in October, "He's one of us." That sort of appeal is contagious, and hard to shake.
What's clear, though, is that, even if Huckabee does win on Jan. 3, he has little to no chance of building a campaign fit to compete with Romney (whom his surge would hurt) or Giuliani (whom his surge would help) between then and SuperDuper Tuesday (Feb. 5). He's essentially a one-state candidate--at least for president. That said, burnishing his conservative cred with an Iowa victory would make him an irresistible choice for a slightly lesser office--especially to one of the blue-state Northeasterners who need all the conservative cred they can get.
Or as Huckabee said Sunday when Bob Schieffer asked if he'd serve as Giuliani's veep, "I just don't know. I haven't
figured that one out yet."
UPDATE, 11.15.07: A new American Research Group poll released today shows Huckabee statistically tied with Romney in Iowa, 24 percent to 26 percent, and leading (though still within the margin of error) among registered Republicans who say they will definitely caucus. Needless to say, if the ARG and NYTimes/CBS polls reflect an actual Huckabee surge--other surveys still show Romney up by more than 10--the Mormon from Massachusetts, who has based his bid on building momentum with early wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, has a reason to worry.
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