DES MOINES, Iowa--Nothing says "Happy New Year" like a snapshot of the Republican race in Iowa. And we here at Stumper headquarters--i.e., the Holiday Inn in downtown Des Moines--are happy to oblige.
(Click here for an updated look at the Democrats.)
Mike Huckabee (28.3 percent)
Brace yourself, Hucksters. I've got good news and bad news. The good news: last night, the Des Moines Register, the only outlet to correctly predict the top four finishers in 2004, released its final pre-caucus poll--and it shows Huckabee beating Mitt Romney by six points, 32 to 26. If you tuned out before the holidays, that might not seem like much of a headline; Huckabee held a double-digit lead going into Christmas. But over the past ten days, he's plummeted back to earth, and in some surveys, Romney even regained his lead. A nice bump in "The Only Caucus Poll That Counts"® effectively kills the "bursting Huckabee bubble" narrative in its crib. The bad news: the entire political press corps is laughing at him. After enduring weeks of attacks from Romney on immigration, crime and foreign policy that he characterized as "very desperate and frankly...dishonest," Huckabee finally snapped yesterday, holding a press conference at the Des Moines Marriott to decry gutter politics and announce that he had decided to pull an ad that would attack Romney's record. The only problem: he immediately "directed the attention of scores of reporters and television cameras to a movie screen, where he played the 30-second hit piece." As Slate's John Dickerson wrote, "a transcript of the event will show this response from the press corps: 'Bwahahahahaha!' [sound of reporters falling out of chairs, doubled over in laughter]." The press saw Huckabee's "change of heart" as a cynical/JV ploy to get them to air his ad (for free--it instantly made cable news) while allowing him to maintain the high road. Whether Iowans will agree, disagree or simply be confused--that's another story.
Mitt Romney (27.9 percent)
Iowans were never particularly comfortable with the businesslike, formerly moderate Romney, but he managed to preserve his lead for much of last year by dropping a ton of dough in the state. Huckabee burst that bubble in November, and the Mormon from Massachusetts never fully recovered. He's spent much of the last month attacking his rivals from Arkansas and Arizona (John McCain) on issues, like immigration, that he wasn't particularly "conservative" on until recently. As a result, his campaign has become more about them and less about him--which is the opposite of how Iowans like it. That said, Romney's tied with Huckabee in the polls (on average), and pulverizing him in the money, organization and infrastructure departments. And while Huck flies to Hollywood to appear on Leno and schedules only a stop or two here each day, Mitt is crisscrossing the state by bus and plane and pounding the pavement for every vote. Still the safest bet on caucus night.
The Rest
Only Romney and Huckabee have a shot at winning on caucus night. McCain polls at 11.6 percent; Fred Thompson follows at 11.3; and Ron Paul and Rudy Giuliani lag behind at about six. But because there's no clear frontrunner nationally, third place is key. A typically lethargic campaigner, Thompson has gone all in here, running ads and covering the entire state by bus over the past two weeks. But McCain might have the upper hand. Reflecting his resurgence in New Hampshire, the Des Moines Register poll puts the Arizona senator at 13 percent to Thompson's nine. Seemingly surprised by the numbers, McCain just scheduled a last-minute, caucus-eve swing through the state.
The Bottom Line
It's all about expectations at this point. A surprisingly sizable win would vindicate Huckabee, who often pits himself as the David to Romney's Goliath, and give him serious momentum going into South Carolina and Florida, where he currently polls well. But the more likely result--an inconclusive victory--would shock no one, muddling his mojo and making it difficult to survive losses in New Hampshire, Michigan and Nevada, which precede those southern states on the schedule. Huckabee could probably limp along with a close second-place finish, but it won't propel him to the nomination. And if Romney crushes him, it's over. For Romney, a strong first would look like comeback; those headlines will help immensely heading into his home turf of New Hampshire and Michigan. Any sort of second place finish makes New Hampshire a must-win, and is great news for Giuliani (who isn't even competing here). If Thompson finishes fourth, he's out. Which means that McCain is still in--and looking stronger than ever in New Hampshire. He'll be praying for that result--and a Huckabee victory--on caucus night.
