MANCHESTER, N.H--In the waning
moments of tonight's ABC/Facebook Democratic debate, moderator Charlie
Gibson did what debate moderators have done since the Stone Age (i.e.,
1960 or so): closed on a "lighter" note. "There've been an awful lot of
debates," he said. "Tell me one thing you said in those debates that
you wished you hadn't said."
Clinton's answer--or non-answer--was
revealing. "What's really most important about these debates is that
the Democratic Party stands in such contrast to the Republicans," she
said. "They're not talking about what really is going to face the next
president. Beyond that I'll let the pundits decide what I said or
didn't say in any of the debates."
Delivered, as ever, like
a true frontrunner: speak magnanimously for the entire field--and never
say anything that can (and will) be used against you in the court of
public opinion. It's long been Clinton's forte.
The only problem?
After a crushing eight-point loss to Barack Obama in Iowa, Hillary is
no longer the frontrunner. Nationally, she's still beating Obama by 20
points. But polls taken here after Iowa
show the Illinois senator with leads ranging from one to 12 percent. If
Clinton loses on friendly turf--her husband's political network is
strong in New Hampshire and she's long dominated state
surveys--catching Obama will probably prove impossible. Tonight's
faceoff at St. Anselm College in Manchester was her first and last
chance to reorient the race before Tuesday's primary.
Did
Clinton handle her new role as second fiddle well enough to reclaim the
lead? Beauty may be in the eye of the voter. Her wonky, bullet-pointed
answers on Pakistan and loose nukes will likely please supporters, but
it's hard to imagine that undecideds, much less Obama fans, were
converted. Everyone already knows that Hillary is a formidable wonk.
She kept up with Edwards and Obama in the (absurd) contest to say
"change" several times per sentence, delivering her message--“Words are
not action. As beautifully presented and passionately felt as they are,
they are not action. What we need to do is to translate thought into
action and feeling into reality”--with gusto. But the success of that
argument still depends on whether New Hampshirites believe that only
experience begets change--or if they decide, like Iowa, that the best
agent of change is change itself. Finally, she spent much of the middle
of the debate attacking Obama. She attacked him for not including a
mandate in his health care plan. She attacked him for changing
positions over the course of his career ("He could have a pretty good
debate with himself," she said). And she attacked him for appointing a
pharmaceutical lobbyist as his New Hampshire campaign chair. (No
response). As risky as this is--sniping looks desperate and only
reinforces Obama's "new politics" message--it's Clinton's best hope to
reinforce doubts about her rival and show fiesty Granite Staters that
she's willing to fight for their votes.
Obama, for his part,
made no mistakes, defending his politics of hope ("Words do inspire.
Words do help people get involved. Don’t discount that power") and
brushing off barbs. (Key moment: asked for a response to the
Republicans' remarks about him, Obama was too cool to be bothered: "I was going back and
forth between the Republicans and football.") Edwards didn't help,
aligning himself with Obama as a change agent and criticizing Clinton's
carping. “Anytime you speak out for change, the forces of status quo
attack," he said (spurring a heated, eminently YouTube-able response from Hillary, above). And since Bill Richardson won't win, his efforts to
distinguish his experience (gubernatorial, cabinet, diplomatic) from
his opponents' (senatorial) sounded more like a call for a balanced
ticket than a presidential pitch.
Over the next three days,
expect Clinton to continue characterizing Obama as an unknown quantity
who talks big but won't deliver (while laboring to convey confidence).
And expect Obama to continue to float above the fray. "There have been
all kinds of aspects to my debate performance that I'd like to correct
or sharpen," he said in response to Gibson's final question. "But
here's an area where I actually agree with Hillary. There's been a
stark contrast generally between the four of us and those who were
debating previously." All magnanimity, all dodge. Sound familiar?
On Tuesday, Obama will either fully claim Hillary's frontrunner
crown--or the tug-of-war will start all over again.