What's Next: Obama is the only candidate in either party with anything approaching a clear path to the nomination. After his eight-point upset in Iowa last Thursday, polls now predict that tonight he will win by the same margin in New Hampshire, where he trailed Clinton by double-digits only last week. Nevada is next on Jan. 19. The latest surveys show Clinton with a commanding lead--but they're from a month ago. New reports indicate that the
all-important Culinary Workers union in Las Vegas will back Obama tomorrow; Democrats say such support from the state's largest union "would virtually hand him a victory in the
labor-dominated caucuses." Following on Jan. 26 is South Carolina--a state "the Clinton campaign is considering effectively ceding" after the large local black population shifted to the now-electable Obama in the wake of the Iowa caucuses. He now leads there by 11 points. Then it's on to Tsunami Tuesday. With four wins under his belt, Obama would presumably wake up that morning with plenty of momentum. The only national poll taken after Iowa shows that Clinton's 20-point lead has vanished.
That's not to say Obama is the next president of the United States--far from it. As Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson has said, "We have the resources and operation to compete across the nation. One
state has spoken. Now the other 49 will have their say. This is a
contest for delegates." That's absolutely true; Clinton remains popular in delegate-rich states like California, New York and New Jersey. And while Obama, a former organizer, was well-suited to the precinct-by-precinct campaigning required in Iowa and New Hampshire, it's unclear if he can go toe-to-toe with Clinton's more-established nationwide organization in the Feb. 5 free-for-all.
Obama is already looking ahead. His next target: money. Tomorrow he heads to New York City to capitalize on his (presumed) back-to-back victories at a big-dollar fundraiser. Seats cost $500 to $2,300--and it's already sold out.
