Pre-Primary Polling Average: First Place, 31.8 percent (3.6 ahead of Romney)
What's Next: McCain has staked his entire campaign on winning the
New Hampshire primary. He's already done it once, when he beat George
W. Bush in 2000. If he fails to repeat, his bid is effectively kaput.
But
that's the least likely of tonight's three possible outcomes. The
others: McCain edges Mitt Romney, but just barely, or McCain beats him
big. Regardless, he needs to capitalize with immediate success in the
two states-- Michigan on Jan. 15 and South Carolina on Jan. 19--leading
up to the big prize, Florida, on Jan. 29. McCain flies out of
Manchester tomorrow en route to Michigan for a pair of airport
appearances, and then continues on to the Palmetto State, where he'll
remain at least through Friday, for a nighttime rally at the Citadel.
His plan: to emphasize "jobs," "displaced workers" and "competition" in
the ailing auto capital, as he told reporters
yesterday aboard the Straight Talk Express, and "veterans... the war...
[and] the National Guard" in South Carolina, a state full of retired
and active-duty personnel.
Its success will depend on whether
McCain delivers a death blow to Romney tonight--or whether the result
is more muddled. McCain faces an uphill battle from here on out; the
vast majority of Republicans don't trust him on immigration, and his
cash-strapped campaign trails both Huckabee's and Romney's in Michigan
and South Carolina. A big win in New Hampshire would provide him with
the money and momentum he needs to compete, and his poll numbers would
likely surge nationwide. A narrow victory, however--less than 3 points--may not be enough to meet sky-high, "Mac is Back," media-fueled
expectations, meaning Romney would claim a "surprise" draw (or even a
post-Iowa comeback) and try to refocus the race on Michigan, where his
father was governor and his organization is strong.
As always, McCain is ready for the fight. (He was feisty, almost cocky, when I saw him yesterday in Concord, the fourth of seven appearances for the day.)
Tonight will tell whether he enters the next round ahead of the
Republican pack--or still scrapping in the free-for-all.
