Newsweek - National News, World News, Health, Technology, Entertainment and more... | Newsweek.com
Full Post
Posted Tuesday, January 08, 2008 11:49 AM

What's Next: Mitt Romney

Andrew Romano
 
Pre-Primary Polling Average: Second Place, 28.2 percent (3.6 behind McCain) 
 
What's Next: For Republicans, it's nostalgia versus novelty here in the Granite State tonight. The key question is whether Mitt Romney has managed to convince voters that he's selling them a new direction--or just a new Mitt.
 
Romney's campaign strategy was always premised on early, crushing wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. Unknown to most of the country, the former Massachusetts governor poured massive amounts of time and money--his own and others, to the tune of more than $70 million--into the first two nominating contests, all while branding himself as a "consensus conservative." For awhile, it seemed effective; until December, Romney led by wide margins in Iowa and New Hampshire. But Mike Huckabee walloped Mitt 34-25 in the Hawkeye State caucuses last Thursday, and Romney arrived in Manchester on Friday with a retooled message inspired by Barack Obama's Democratic victory: Washington is Broken. Only I Can Bring Change. Tonight we'll see if the turnaround has worked.  
 
My take: it'd be foolish to count Romney out in New Hampshire. The pundits have had a field day ragging on him for his latest reinvention, but my sense here on the ground is that unless you were inclined to think of Romney as a flip-flopper before, you won't consider him one now. (Most folks don't tune in 'til late, so New Hampshirites who remember Mitt as the moderate technocratic governor of neighboring Massachusetts--and didn't pay attention to his extended "right-winger" phase--probably won't consider his "new" image as a biz-whiz outsider that inconsistent.) Plus, large swaths of the Granite State Republican electorate will always prefer Romney to McCain on taxes, immigration and even resume (lots of small-business owners up here). If Obama siphons off McCain-friendly Independents--they can vote in either party's primary, and judging by the rallies I've attended, they're a lot more excited for Obama than McCain--then Romney could eke out a "comeback" on the strength of his bedrock GOP support.
 
Whatever happens, though, the next contest, Michigan, is as far ahead as Romney's road runs at this point. If he loses there--it's his home state; he inherits establishment support from his father, George, who led the local GOP in the 1960s; and he's still leading (narrowly) in the polls--it's all over for Mitt. Which is why even small variations in tonight's results will be momentous. A big loss here means Romney limps in for his last stand.  A close second means he's still alive, if a long shot. Even a first-place finish doesn't ensure an easy (or even particularly plausible) path to the nomination. Huckabee is way ahead in South Carolina and Giuliani leads in Florida; wins in northern states like New Hampshire and/or Michigan--a best-case scenario--won't likely reorient those races. (Especially Michigan--not much of a momentum-builder.) But without the wind of Iowa at his back, it's the best Romney can hope for.
 
Update, 1:50 p.m.: Romney's off to--where else?--Grand Rapids, Mich. tomorrow. Re: South Carolina, where Huckabee leads by 12.7 points, there are rumors that he won't really compete. If he doesn't, it's hard to see how he heads into Florida on the 29th with any real momentum. He'd need massive wins tonight and next Tuesday to last through the end of the month. Not likely.
 
Advertisement
You must be a registered user to comment.  Click here to register.  Already a user?  Click here to login.

Member Comments

Posted By: CTR-Los Angeles (January 22, 2008 at 5:00 PM)

It feels that some people expect to have a PERFECT president. Dont see how the previous presidents religions have made a great impact in this country. Just because one LDS member put a sour taste in your mouth, does not mean that the whole religion and members will too. EVERYONE has faults regardless of religions. Look at our past presidents! How has their religions made a major change in our country? And now you are stomping on someone that has followed beliefs that have obviously put him in the right path? Someone that has been able to rise above the negativity of issues that we have in this country? He isnt perfect, but he has done his best to live his life accordingly. If you hate the man because of what he believes in, then we are all doomed to never seeing anything good happening here. And like it is stated in the Bible, which i would think you wouldnt remark bad about if you are any other religion----Let he who is without sin, cast the first stone.


Posted By: skinny703 (January 11, 2008 at 1:35 PM)

I think what bugs me most about the whole hating Romney trend is that we have these people that appear to be sweet, law-passing senators and otherwise political figures who say that they're not going to play the negative ad that they've created about Romney and then show it to a roomful of reporters.  Or the fact that he did that after he splashed comments about someone's religion and then apologized about it (after the comments have taken their desired effect, of course).  Not to mention that Huckabee told his supporters in N.H. to vote for him and invite neighbors out to vote only if they were going to vote for him.  He went further to say that they needed to shovel snow into their driveway or let the air out of their tires if they weren't going to vote for him.  All of that from a person who's supposed to be wholesome goodness.  Huckabee is a wolf in sheep's clothing while Mitt is legit.  He's the real deal and that scares people.  

As for the Mormons answering to their leader, think about it... How do more than 13 million people in 176 countries and territories answer to one person?  Do they all call up the prophet on his home phone and check out if what they're doing is in line with the principles of the church?  Logically that doesn't make sense.  Joseph Smith taught, "I teach them correct principles and they govern themselves."  That is the role of the prophet from the beginning.  What did Isaiah, Daniel, Adam, Noah, and other prophets do?  They taught correct principles (I repeat principles, not who to vote for) and let the people choose for themselves what to do.  (In the case of Noah, they decided it was better to drown than listen to the prophet.)  From the church that Christ established to the one that He restored in our day, the prophet does not lead by coercion or force.  Mormons believe in agency, the freedom of choice.  There is no church endorsement of any candidates, only people voting for candidates who maintain similar standards.  In years past, Mormons vote just like everyone else, for the candidate that fits their ideals and matches what they feel is best for the US.  There will be no change this year.  I know people of all faiths that have decided that they want to support Mitt Romney.  You don't have to belong to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints to support a qualified candidate.


Posted By: Dare270 (January 10, 2008 at 10:09 AM)

Mittsy has no chance, he's all but out of the race.  He's a long shot on all the odds on the gambling websites and anyone with a lick of common sense knows he will never become president, at least with not all the facts about mormonism out there.  Most experts agree on this, that he has no chance.  


 
The Peek
 
 
PROJECT GREEN
NWK Caption: At the Excel High School in Oakland, California a group of students, their teacher and members of community groups pose with air pollution monitors in front of a mural at the school.  July 26, 2008.       Left to Right:   Randy Colosky, a member of Global Community Monitor  wearing brown shirt ,Juan Hernandez, student (seated) ,   Ina Bendich, teacher Danyale Willingham,student in blue top).Elizabeth de Rham far right, member of the Rose Foundation.

Young pollution sleuths and community activists fight for healthier air.

Sponsored by
 
 
 
 
PAKISTAN
nuclear pakistan khan kabul bomb
Sponsored by
 
 
 
loadingLoading Menu