What's Next: For Republicans, it's nostalgia versus novelty here in the Granite
State tonight. The key question is whether Mitt Romney has managed to convince voters that
he's selling them a new direction--or just a new Mitt.
Romney's
campaign strategy was always premised on early, crushing wins in Iowa
and New Hampshire. Unknown to most of the country, the former
Massachusetts governor poured massive amounts of time and money--his
own and others, to the tune of more than $70 million--into the first
two nominating contests, all while branding himself as a "consensus
conservative." For awhile, it seemed effective; until December, Romney
led by wide margins in Iowa and New Hampshire. But Mike Huckabee
walloped Mitt 34-25 in the Hawkeye State caucuses last Thursday, and
Romney arrived in Manchester on Friday with a retooled message inspired
by Barack Obama's Democratic victory: Washington is Broken. Only I Can Bring Change. Tonight we'll see if the turnaround has worked.
My
take: it'd be foolish to count Romney out in New Hampshire. The pundits
have had a field day ragging on him for his latest reinvention, but my
sense here on the ground is that unless you were inclined to think of
Romney as a flip-flopper before, you won't consider him one now. (Most
folks don't tune in 'til late, so New Hampshirites who remember Mitt as
the moderate technocratic governor of neighboring Massachusetts--and
didn't pay attention to his extended "right-winger" phase--probably
won't consider his "new" image as a biz-whiz outsider that
inconsistent.) Plus, large swaths of the Granite State Republican
electorate will always prefer Romney to McCain on taxes, immigration
and even resume (lots of small-business owners up here). If Obama
siphons off McCain-friendly Independents--they can vote in either
party's primary, and judging by the rallies I've attended, they're a
lot more excited for Obama than McCain--then Romney could eke out a
"comeback" on the strength of his bedrock GOP support.
Whatever
happens, though, the next contest, Michigan, is as far ahead as
Romney's road runs at this point. If he loses there--it's his home
state; he inherits establishment support from his father,
George, who led the local GOP in the 1960s; and he's still leading
(narrowly) in the
polls--it's all over for Mitt.
Which is why even small variations in tonight's results will be
momentous. A big loss here means Romney limps in for his last stand. A
close second means he's still alive, if a long shot. Even a first-place
finish doesn't ensure an easy (or even particularly plausible) path to
the nomination. Huckabee is way ahead in South Carolina and Giuliani
leads in Florida; wins in northern states like New Hampshire and/or
Michigan--a best-case scenario--won't likely reorient those races.
(Especially Michigan--not much of a momentum-builder.) But without the
wind of Iowa at his back, it's the best Romney can hope for.
Update, 1:50 p.m.:
Romney's off to--where else?--Grand Rapids, Mich. tomorrow. Re: South
Carolina, where Huckabee leads by 12.7 points, there are
rumors
that he won't really compete. If he doesn't, it's hard to see how he
heads into Florida on the 29th with any real momentum. He'd need
massive wins tonight and next Tuesday to last through the end of the
month. Not likely.