Take a look at this results map of yesterday's primary vote in New York. That grayish purple color? It's Hillary Clinton country. Hillaryland blankets nearly the entire state--as well it should, considering that Clinton, a New York senator, won overall by more than 300,000 votes, 57 to 40 percent.

 

But notice that little contrasting splotch of lime in the center of the map? That's Tompkins County. As the only area in the Empire State to choose Barack Obama over Clinton, Tompkins single-handedly denied the former First Lady a home state sweep.

 

Blame the kids--and the anti-war crowd. The seat of Tompkins County is Ithaca, the home of Cornell University and Ithaca College. Together they account for 30,000 students, or nearly one-third of the area's entire population. That makes Ithaca one of those fabled "college towns"--as if the pierced barristas, Socialist farmers, alt-weeklies, ethnic music venues and hard-core liberal tendencies didn't give it away. In 1988, Jesse Jackson won the county's Democratic primary, and Ralph Nader received more votes for president than George W. Bush in the 2000 general election* 11 percent of the vote in 2000, or four times his national total. Obama was looking strong even before yesterday. He raised nearly twice as much as Clinton--$11,204 to $6,350--from area donors, and won the support of a majority of local alderpersons and councilmembers. So when the results came in, Obama took home 52 percent of the vote to her 46 percent--largely thanks to the overwhelming majority of county voters who listed Iraq as their top concern. (The war trailed the economy 46-30 statewide.) The 20,000 phone calls and door knocks made by Ithaca for Obama--a largely student group--didn't hurt.

 

By its very nature, Tompkins County is an anomaly. But does it say anything about Obama's chances to win the nomination that his support among young, anti-war liberals was enough, in a head-to-head battle, to overcome Clinton's considerable home-state advantage? I think so. Obama won nearly 60 percent of the vote in Northampton, home of Smith College, and 53 percent in Wellesley, Mass., site of Clinton’s alma mater, Wellesley College--but Clinton still won statewide (despite Obama's Kennedy endorsements). Meanwhile in Connecticut, once considered a Clinton stronghold, Obama won Middletown (Wesleyan) with 54 percent, and took New Haven (Yale) with two-thirds of the vote. He went on to capture the state, 51-47, with 58 percent support among the sub-30 set.

 

Judging by Ithaca and its fellow college towns, it may be that the youth vote--which likely fueled Obama's victories yesterday in low turnout caucuses like Kansas and Idaho--has a more limited role to play in the primary states. Where Clinton leads--Massachusetts and New York--it's not enough to make up the gap. But where the two are tied and all else is equal--Connecticut--the kids could make all the difference. Whether or not there are enough states left in the latter category to produce an Obama nomination that's truly "youth-powered" remains to be seen.

 

*Damn you, Wikipedia. That one was too good to be true.