Extra, extra, read all about it.
With 99 percent of precincts
reporting, Obama has defeated Clinton 61-37 in today's Mississippi
primary--slightly exceeding our 20-point "MVP," or margin-of-victory
prediction. (Like the acronym? I just made it up. Ah, the pleasures of
blogging.) The spread should net him 20 delegates to Clinton's 13, for
an overall gain of seven. Which, as we noted earlier, will completely erase the New York senator's March 4 advances. Congrats!
Not many surprises in the exit polls either. As expected, Obama
garnered overwhelming support from the Magnolia State's black
electorate, while Clinton won a solid, though less sweeping, white
majority. Such polarization is not the norm nationwide; Obama has
already captured lily-white states like Iowa, Wisconsin and Wyoming,
and typically polls within five to 20 points of Clinton among whites
(even winning the category in diverse Virginia). But it has been
consistent across the Deep South. Mirroring Alabama,
Mississippi saw a nine-to-one pro-Obama split among African-American
voters and a three-to-one pro-Clinton split among whites. That said, I
tend to agree with Ben Smith of the Politico about the larger
significance of such stats. "If there's one part of the country where
you'd actually expect a black
candidate to have trouble with white voters, it is the Deep South," he writes. "So
I'm not sure there's really all that much to read into this one." Amen.
Earlier I questioned Obama's claim that blacks could flip Mississippi for him in the general. I remain skeptical. While more African-Americans showed up at the polls this year than
in 2004, it's impossible to determine how many were spurred by
excitement for Obama and how many were simply eager to vote in
Mississippi's first relevant primary in ages. Either way, white turnout
was up as well, meaning that the rolls swelled from about 60,000 voters
four years ago to about 400,000 today--and blacks ended up seeing their
share of the electorate drop from 56 to 50 percent overall. That trend
isn't transferable to the general election. But it's still doubtful that Obama could carry the state in November.
The most interesting--and perhaps distressing--finding relates to
the Republican crossover vote. In state after state, Obama has crushed
Clinton two- or three-to-one among GOPers willing to participate in a
Democratic primary or caucus. Not so in Mississippi. There, a stunning 75 percent of Republicans voted for Clinton; they were her single
strongest group. Meanwhile, the GOP more than doubled its share of the
2004 electorate, skyrocketing from five to 12 percent. For comparison, Republicans
accounted for five percent of the Super Tuesday turnout in Alabama--where only
52 percent of them voted for Clinton. Could white racial animosity
toward Obama account for the surge in the New York senator's crossover support? Or is Rush Limbaugh's request that Republicans back Clinton actually working? Either way, it's sort of hard to imagine there are that
many Mississippi Republicans who have suddenly fallen for Hillary. But maybe I'm just being cynical.