Sifting through the Mississippi exit polling data on Tuesday, I stumbled upon a pair of baffling stats: not only did
12 percent of Democratic primary voters describe themselves as
Republicans, but a stunning 75 percent of these crossovers chose
Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama. The numbers were shocking because of
how sharply they broke with established trends. Throughout January and
February, Obama routinely routed his rival among Repubs, restricting
her to an average take of 31 percent. Even in the demographically
similar Alabama, which voted on Super Tuesday, Republicans accounted
for a measly five percent of the electorate--and only 52 percent voted
for Clinton.
As it was sort of hard to imagine there were that
many Mississippi Republicans suddenly crushing on Clinton, I wondered if a) animosity
toward Obama accounted for the surge in the New York senator's crossover support, or b) Rush Limbaugh's request that Republicans back Clinton in order to prolong the race (and perhaps eventually propel the more polarizing figure to the nomination) was actually working.
It looks like we have a (tentative) answer. Over at National Journal, the ever-brilliant Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com has gotten his hands on some delectable raw exit poll data that suggests a desire to stop Obama--not boost Clinton, a la Limbaugh--was the major factor motivating Clinton's crossover voters. Sorry, liberal blogosphere: the Limbaugh effect looks like a myth.***
The numbers are pretty clear. Of the 147 Clinton Republicans
surveyed by pollsters, very few seemed to actually, you know, like
Clinton or consider her an inspiring or honest leader (especially
compared to John McCain): 85 percent rated McCain favorably, and 58
percent had a "strongly" favorable opinion of him; 41
percent said they would be dissatisfied if Clinton were the Democratic
nominee; 56 percent said Clinton has not "offered clear and detailed
plans to solve the country's problems"; 62 percent said Clinton does
not inspire them "about the future of the
country"; and 72 percent said Clinton is not "honest and trustworthy."
That said, analyzing Clinton's numbers in isolation shows only that
these Republicans aren't likely to support her in the general election;
it's impossible to say why they chose to support her in Mississippi.
One
glance at her opponent's stats, however, and the answer is immediately
apparent: they really, really don't like Obama. Here's the damage: 91
percent said Clinton is more qualified to be commander in chief, while
only 3 percent said Obama is more qualified; 94 percent said Obama does
not inspire them "about the future of the
country"; 89 percent would be dissatisfied if Obama were the Democratic
nominee"; 86 percent said Obama is not "honest and trustworthy"; 86
percent said Obama has not "offered clear and detailed plans to solve
the country's problems"; and 82 percent said Clinton should not pick
Obama to be her running mate if she is the nominee. For comparison's
sake, consider the latest Newsweek poll:
41 percent of Republicans had a favorable opinion of Obama. That should
give you a sense of how anti-Obama Clinton's Mississippi Republicans
actually were. Nationwide, most Republicans like Obama more than
Clinton (in the same poll, she earned an unfavorable score of 73
percent). But the few driven to vote in Mississippi's primary were
hard-core Obama haters.
The larger question, of course, is why
these angry activists object to Obama. No exit poll can answer that. It
may be that they consider him a more dangerous general election
opponent, as some Dems have surmised; after all, a full 89 percent say
they oppose his nomination, versus 41 percent for Clinton. Or it may be
that there are still some racists in the Deep South.** Until we install
brain-scanners in our ballot boxes, we'll probably never know.
** This was meant to be sarcastic. I'm well aware that there are racists everywhere--not just Mississippi.
*** UPDATE, 4:30 p.m.: The Limbaugh effect line was a little hasty. What I tried--and failed--to get at above is the fact that if these Republicans were motivated primarily by Limbaugh, you'd expect them to dislike Clinton more than Obama. After all, Limbaugh's whole shtik is "let's keep this race going as long as possible to bloody the eventual nominee--and, if we're lucky, it'll be Hillary, who will inspire tons of animosity and excitement in the Republican base." The whole idea presupposes that Republicans hate Clinton and don't really mind Obama; that's why she'd be easier to "cream," in Limbaugh's words. National polls (see Newsweek's above) support this view.
But the results in Mississippi show just the opposite. The Republicans who voted for Clinton don't object to her nearly as strongly as they object to Obama. To me, that implies that they cast their votes viscerally, not tactically--i.e., to register their opposition to Obama himself. Whether that's racism or not, I don't know. But I'd expect Dittoheads to display more Hillary hatred than Obama hatred; otherwise, Limbaugh's whole reason for wanting to face Clinton in the general election falls apart.
Whatever the cause of the crossover, though, many of the commenters are correct to note that the effect is the same. Here's reader David Carlisle with a smart take:
Whether or not it was Limbaugh's influence that caused it, the Republican voters were not voting for Clinton because they like her, they were voting for Clinton because they dislike Obama, see him as the presumptive nominee, and want to weaken him against McCain by prolonging his fight for the nomination. Or, alternatively, they do want to see Clinton nominated, because they think she won't fare as well in the general election. Either way, the polls make it pretty clear that a Republican vote for Hillary isn't a vote for Hillary, it's a vote for McCain and/or against Obama. Which is exactly what Rush wants. As far as I'm concerned, anyone who voted Hillary in the primary but would not vote for her in the general over McCain is following the Rush Plan (whether they heard it from him directly or not).
