PHILADELPHIA--After seven weeks of stumping, sniping and spending like drunken sailors, the twin titans of the Democratic nominating contest finally clash today here in the Keystone State. The funny thing is, the primary may not end up changing much.
Of course, don't tell that to Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, who passed their final week in Pennsylvania bloodying each other as if the White House lay waiting on the other side of the Alleghenies. In that period alone, each candidate unveiled five different television ads, using the airwaves to mount an ever-escalating series of attacks and counterattacks. As shots of the stock market crashing, Pearl Harbor exploding, New Orleans flooding and Osama bin Laden brooding flashed on screen, Clinton's "
Kitchen" asked voters "who do you think has what it takes?"; Obama quickly launched a spot accusing her of "us[ing] fear and calculation to divide us." Clinton
misrepresented Obama's health care plan; Obama misrepresented back. All told, television spending hit an estimated $20 million statewide--a primary-season record. On the phone lines, a Clinton robocall
slammed Obama for "not telling the truth" on guns; an
Obama mailer linked Clinton to trade-induced job losses. Behind the scenes, reporters were treated to a steady stream of invective from both sides--even as the candidates stayed relatively sunny on the stump.
C'est la vie politique.
So what should we expect from all this sound and fury? Three possible outcomes, and three corresponding media narratives. The first--and most implausible--is an outright victory for Obama, which would effectively end Clinton's candidacy; the press would inevitably (and rightly) portray a loss in a state as demographically favorable as Pennsylvania--Clinton led by 25 points in March--as a decisive rejection of her candidacy. What's more, her whole rationale for staying in the race--i.e., "I perform better than Obama in November's must-win states"--would be shot. If defeated, Clinton might pledge tonight in Philadelphia to "continue until the convention. " But as the pressure mounts, the money dries up and the uncommitted superdelegates flock to Barack, she'll probably find that promise difficult to keep. Two Clinton associates
have even predicted as much.
Luckily for her, the second outcome--a clear Clinton win--is far likelier. What, you ask, is a "clear Clinton win"? Apparently, 10 percent is the magic margin. Because Clinton has no chance of erasing Obama's 160 pledged-delegate lead before the end of regulation--or, thanks to proportional allocation, of closing the gap significantly in Pennsylvania (
unless she wins by 15 percent margins statewide)--what matters most is not tonight's tiny shifts in the delegate count or the popular vote tally but how the uncommitted superdelegates (who will, after all, decide the race) interpret the broader results. That means the media narrative (rather than the math) will be more important than ever--and every analyst seems to have mystically agreed the Clinton will only "exceed expectations" if she posts a double-digit victory. It's tautological but true. Assuming, in that case, that Clinton trounces Obama among working-class whites--whose support, says Clinton, would make her the stronger candidate against John McCain come November--the supers will likely hold off on deciding until after May 6, when Indiana and North Carolina vote. If that happens, expect to hear the word "electability"--and more speculation about Obama's supposed "elitism"--a bazillion times between now and June.
The third outcome is the murkiest--and also the most likely. If Clinton wins by less than 10 points but more than six, expect a lot of yawning; that's essentially what the polls have predicted for weeks. Such a result would (insanely enough, considering that Obama trailed by 16 after Ohio and Texas) have little effect on the contest. But if Obama breaks the six-percent barrier, all hell will break loose. Call it the Spin Wars. The Clinton camp will claim that "
a win is a win is a win" and mock Obama for losing despite outspending them two-to-one. As they wrote to reporters this afternoon: "If he's already the frontrunner, if he's had six weeks of unlimited resources to get his message out, shouldn't he be the one expected to win tonight?" Team Obama, on the other hand, will note that the Illinois senator overcame all odds (demography, Bittergate, Rev. Wright) to exceed expectations on the ground. My sense is that the press will prefer that latter storyline to the former;
Clinton couldn't catch Obama in South Carolina, they'll write,
but Obama still battled back in Pennsylvania--Hillary's home state, of sorts.
Either way, Indiana's next. Clinton has already released her schedule through Saturday; it's packed with stops in Indianapolis, Bloomington, Gary, East Chicago, South Bend and Fort Wayne. Obama, meanwhile, lands in Evansville tonight and travels to New Albany tomorrow. As the last remaining toss-up--Obama currently leads by an average of
16 points in North Carolina--the Hoosier State may end up determining the nominee. But it's far from clear, at this point, who will win. From Illinois, Obama arrives with a next-door advantage and a growing list of influential supporters (Lee Hamilton, John Mellencamp); Clinton comes equipped with white, working-class appeal and Sen. Evan Bayh as a surrogate. In that sense, the Pennsylvania results could be the deciding factor. Clinton's best shot for a strong finish in Indiana is a strong finish in Pennsylvania; only with a sizable win here will she have enough mojo to break the
deadlock in Mellencamp Country, and she
needs a win there to continue wooing superdelegates through May and June. But anything less than an unqualified Quaker State victory will pose serious problems for the former First Lady come May 6; this is her last opportunity to gin up momentum. And if Obama wins tonight's expectations game--i.e., if "Obama Battles Back" dominates the headlines--he's going to prove nearly impossible to stop.
Let the waiting begin.
