A round-up of this morning's must-read stories.
BARACK ON IRAQ
(Michael Crowley, The New Republic)
Today, Barack Obama's campaign is largely based around a promise to
"end the war" in Iraq by withdrawing troops within 16 months. But some Washington foreign policy mandarins insist this isn't
possible--that a total U.S. withdrawal isn't achievable and Obama knows
it. That Obama, like Nixon, in fact has a secret plan not to end the
war...
Or, at least, that Obama's speeches overstate the feasibility of a
near-term Iraq exit... The truth is Obama has no secret plan for Iraq. Interviews with nearly
two dozen foreign policy and military experts, as well as Obama's
campaign advisers, and a close review of Obama's own statements on
Iraq, suggest something more nuanced. What he is offering is a basic
vision of withdrawal with muddy particulars, one his advisers are still
formulating and one that, if he is elected, is destined to meet an even
muddier reality on the ground. Obama has set a clear direction for U.S.
policy in Iraq: He wants us
out of Iraq; but he's not willing to do it at any cost--even if it
means dashing the hopes of some of his more fervent and naïve
supporters. And, when it comes to Iraq, whatever the merits of Obama's
withdrawal plan may be, "Yes, We Can" might ultimately yield to "No, we
can't."
FOR OBAMA, A STRUGGLE TO WIN OVER KEY BLOCS
(Adam Nagourney, New York Times)
Mr. Obama remains ahead of Mrs. Clinton in delegates, in the
popular vote and in national polls, and Mrs. Clinton certainly has her
own problems trying to herd Democrats into her corner. But just
when it seemed that the Democratic Party was close to anointing Mr.
Obama as its nominee, he lost yet again in a big general election
state, dragged down by his weakness among blue-collar voters, older
voters and white voters. The composition of Mrs. Clinton’s support —
or, looked at another way, the makeup of voters who have proved
reluctant to embrace Mr. Obama — has Democrats wondering, if not
worrying, about what role race may be playing.
THE INCREDIBLY SHRINKING DEMOCRATS
(Joe Klein, Time)
Obama... entered the primary as a fresh breeze and left it stale, battered
and embittered — still the mathematical favorite for the nomination but
no longer the darling of his party. In the course of six weeks, the
American people learned that he was a member of a church whose pastor
gave angry, anti-American sermons, that he was "friendly" with an
American terrorist who had bombed buildings during the Vietnam era, and
that he seemed to look on the ceremonies of working-class life —
bowling, hunting, churchgoing and the fervent consumption of greasy
food — as his anthropologist mother might have, with a mixture of cool
detachment and utter bemusement. All of which deepened the skepticism
that Caucasians, especially those without a college degree, had about a
young, inexperienced African-American guy with an Islamic-sounding name
and a highfalutin fluency with language. And worse, it raised questions
among the elders of the party about Obama's ability to hold on to
crucial Rust Belt bastions like Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Jersey
in the general election — and to add long-suffering Ohio to the
Democratic column. Yes, yes, the bulk of the sludge was caricature... But there is an immutable pedestrian reality to American politics: you
have to get the social body language right if you want voters to
consider the nobler reaches of your message.
CANDIDATES ON EQUAL FOOTING IN INDIANA
(Jonathan Martin, Politico)
Obama and Clinton have traded the lead in Indiana polls, but there have
been few reliable local surveys to date. One thing seems certain:
Unlike Pennsylvania, where Clinton began with a pronounced advantage,
Indiana is a state where the two candidates begin on equal footing. For Obama, the raw math suggests a slight advantage. Upward of 25
percent of the primary vote will come out of just two counties: Marion
County is home to Indianapolis, the capital and state’s largest city,
and Lake County is home to industrial Gary, located in the northwest
corner of the state and part of the Chicago media market. Both will strongly favor the Illinois senator, Indiana political
observers predict, thanks in part to large African-American
populations... Indiana pols expect [Clinton] to run strong across a swath of central and
southern Indiana, in the counties well beyond Indianapolis and
Bloomington (home to tens of thousands of Indiana University students
and professors) that are culturally similar to neighboring Ohio and
Kentucky. The battleground could well be in two places: the fast-growing, mostly
white exurbs around Indianapolis and the northern part of the state
outside the Chicago orbit where there are pockets of white ethnics,
blacks, college students and rural voters.
MORE: Indiana Poses Challenge for Both Democrats (Amy Chozick and Nick Timiraos, Wall Street Journal)
Sen. Barack Obama is under pressure to knock Sen. Hillary Clinton out
of the race and prove he can connect with working-class whites, while
Sen. Clinton must narrow the delegate gap in order to bring in
donations and keep her candidacy going.
EVEN MORE: For Indiana Voters, Talk of Change May Fall Flat (Monica Davey, New York Times)
Many of the two dozen voters interviewed in this central Indiana
manufacturing city of 46,000 expressed queasiness over the notions of
change that both Democratic candidates have proudly pledged elsewhere.
Though residents bemoaned economic conditions that have taken away
thousands of factory jobs and given the state the 11th-highest rate of
foreclosures, they also said they worried about doing things — anything
— very differently.
THE QUEEN OF PORK
(Matt Taibbi, Rolling Stone)
Even John McCain, who
boasts that he doesn't request "earmarks," as pork-barrel spending is
known on the Hill, actually has at least one to his name. And Barack
Obama has not been shy about steering taxpayer dollars to people who
might be able to help his presidential bid. But of the three candidates, no one can touch Hillary Clinton for her
expertise in dispensing federal pork. She is fast becoming a sort of
Heavyweight Earmark Champion of the Beltway — one think-tank analyst
has even dubbed her the "Queen of Pork" — who excels as a favor trader
not only in sheer quantity but in brazenness as well. A recent
examination of this year's earmark requests shows her solidifying her
champion status more and more with each passing year, even under the
ostensibly bright lights of a presidential campaign.
ASSESSING STRENGTH IN SWING STATES
(Patrick Healy, New York Times)
Mrs. Clinton says her popularity among blue-collar workers, women and Hispanics makes her the candidate to beat Senator John McCain,
the presumptive Republican nominee, in the swing states that decide
presidential races... Yet
for all of her primary night celebrations in the populous states, exit
polling and independent political analysts offer evidence that Mr.
Obama could do just as well as Mrs. Clinton among blocs of voters with
whom he now runs behind. Obama advisers say he also appears
well-positioned to win swing states and believe he would have a strong
shot at winning traditional Republican states like Virginia. According
to surveys of Pennsylvania voters leaving the polls on Tuesday, Mr.
Obama would draw majorities of support from lower-income voters and
less-educated ones — just as Mrs. Clinton would against Mr. McCain,
even though those voters have favored her over Mr. Obama in the
primaries. And national polls suggest Mr. Obama would also do
slightly better among groups that have gravitated to Republican in the
past, like men, the more affluent and independents, while she would do
slightly better among women.
FOR MCCAIN, DIFFERENT PLACE, SAME MESSAGE
(Jule Eilperin and Michael D. Shear, Washington Post)
Earlier this week, McCain sought to assure African Americans in Selma,
Ala., that he is committed to helping places ignored by "sins of
indifference and injustice." On Tuesday, he sympathized with workers in
the fading factory town of Youngstown, Ohio. And on Thursday, he is
scheduled to tour the Ninth Ward of New Orleans, where residents
continue to struggle in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. McCain is reaching out to voters in these Democratic strongholds to
try to build the broad, center-right coalition that aides believe is
necessary for him to become president. Advisers do not think
Republicans alone can elect McCain, given how many have become
disenchanted with President Bush and his policies. McCain's "Time for Action" tour is less about specific proposals; those
will come later, advisers said. The important part, they said, is for
McCain to lay the groundwork in places such as Inez to credibly claim
that he cares about the people who live on the edge of the modern
economy. In effect, McCain is launching Version 2.0 of Bush's
"compassionate conservative" campaign. McCain is not likely to have an easy time of it.
BARACK OBAMA STILL TAKES IN OIL MONEY
(Dan Morain, Los Angeles Times)
Sen. Barack Obama continued accepting donations from oil company
executives and employees last month even as he aired ads in which he
stated he took no oil company money, his campaign finance reports show. Obama has taken at least $263,000 from oil company executives, family
members and employees since entering the presidential race last year,
including $46,000 last month. At least $140,000 has come in chunks of
between $1,000 and $2,300, the maximum permitted under federal law... Obama spokesman Ben Labolt said unlike Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and
McCain, Obama refused to take money from federal lobbyists and
political action committees. "He accepted no contributions from oil and gas company political
action committees, or from those who are paid to lobby Congress on
behalf of oil and gas companies -- the money that is intended to
purchase influence and access on behalf of corporate interests," Labolt
said.
THE LAW OF RULES
(Josiah Lee Auspitz, Washington Monthly)
In all, 2008 presents quite a test for PLEOs and The Charter and the By-laws of the Democratic Party of the United States,
as the rules are officially called. Quite a test, in other words, for
the leadership of the National Democratic Party in convention
assembled. For the first time since the McGovern candidacy of 1972 the
Democrats can expect to be judged by the electorate on how they conduct
themselves under their own procedures. The Democrats control both
houses of Congress. Voters will surely consider how they govern
themselves in deciding whether to entrust them with the White House as
well. And that is why the topic of party rules, usually so arcane and
tedious, can and should interest every citizen this year.