In the wake of a loss in blue-collar Pennsylvania and the nettlesome reemergence of Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Jr., every pundit seems to agree: Barack Obama needs to clinch the Democratic nomination sooner rather than later. But no one seems to know how, exactly. Headlines like "While Clinton Focuses, Obama is Distracted" lead the nation's newspapers; reports describe the Illinois senator as "shaken" and "bruised." And voters' confidence in him seems to be slipping.
Whether you think this is a PR problem or a real sign of weakness, one thing is clear: Barack Obama has seen better days.
So what would you do differently?
Imagine.
You’re a political consultant, drafted this week by Obama's campaign
to help pilot his reinvigoration. In North Carolina, your candidate's poll numbers are plunging. Two weeks ago, Insider Advantage showed the senator trouncing Hillary Clinton by 15 points; now, the same firm puts Clinton ahead by two.
Nationally, there are signs of trouble as well. According to the new
New York Times/CBS Poll, the number of Democrats who say they expect your guy to win the nomination has dropped from 69 to 51 percent in the
last month, and only 48 percent--down from 56 in March--say he has the
best chance of beating John McCain. For Team Obama, the mathematics of the race has
not changed; he still has an indestructible pledged-delegate advantage, Clinton is highly unlikely to overtake him in the popular vote and he's winning the majority of superdelegate endorsements. But the psychology has. A loss in demographically-neutral Indiana, where Clinton leads by three, and a closer-than-expected outcome in North Carolina would further weaken Obama's position, emboldening the chorus of naysayers and seemingly sending him down the path to either a) a demoralizing, momentum-free superdelegate victory or b) a divisive loss to Clinton.
Neither scenario is particularly sunny. So, newcomer, what’s the game plan? How
should Obama spend the last few days before Tuesday's critical
votes in North Carolina and Indiana? How should he tweak his message,
if at all? Should he play more basketball? Drink more beer? Go negative? Focus on McCain? Name his veep pick? Stalk Al Gore and John Edwards? And how about after May 6? Should Obama go for broke in Bubba-rich West Virginia and Kentucky? Run up the score in Oregon, Montana and South Dakota instead? Or just let the demographic patterns repeat themselves again and again and again? In the end, is there anything Obama can do or say to recapture the media storyline, sway undecided superdelegates to break his way before June--and ensure a united, excited, energetic party come fall?
Give your best pitch in the comments section, and we'll round up the smartest strategies on Monday.
Paging David Axelrod, David Plouffe and Robert Gibbs. You might want to pay attention.
