A round-up of this morning's must-read stories.
OPTIONS DWINDLING FOR CLINTON
(Adam Nagourney, New York Times)
In this case, a split was not a draw... In short, Mrs. Clinton could not have asked for a better second
chance to turn this campaign around and to make her central case to
superdelegates: that Mr. Obama was a damaged general election candidate
who would get swallowed up by the Republican Party. Yet
she was unable on Tuesday to build her base of support substantially
beyond the white, working-class voters who had sustained her for the
last month. That will not be lost on the superdelegates, the elected
Democrats and party leaders who will ultimately decide this fight. And
the superdelegates are where the fight is moving: after 50 nominating
contests, there are only 6 left, with just 217 pledged delegates left
to be elected, not enough to get either of them over the 2,025
threshold necessary to win the nomination. Mr. Obama’s aides
said Mrs. Clinton would have to win close to 70 percent of the
remaining pledged delegates and superdelegates to win the nomination, a
shift in the campaign’s trajectory that would seem possible only if
some big development came along to hurt Mr. Obama.
MORE: Clinton Fails to Get Needed Game-Changer (Beth Fouhy, AP)
Her aides insist she will press anew for a resolution to the
disputed contests in Michigan and Florida, both of which she won, but
whose results were voided because the primaries were moved in violation
of Democratic Party rules. Anticipating those efforts, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe
sent a memo to superdelegates reminding them of the math. He said
Clinton would need to win 68 percent of the remaining delegates to win
the nomination -- an extremely unlikely scenario, made harder by her
poor performance Tuesday. "With the Clinton path to the nomination getting even narrower, we
expect new and wildly creative scenarios to emerge in the coming days.
While those scenarios may be entertaining, the are not legitimate and
will not be considered legitimate by this campaign or millions of
supporters, volunteers and donors."
OBAMA TAKES DECISIVE STEP TOWARD NOMINATION
(Ben Smith, Politico)
Sen. Barack Obama took a large and potentially decisive step toward the
Democratic nomination Tuesday night, making dramatic symbolic and
numerical gains in North Carolina and Indiana. Obama’s emphatic North Carolina victory, and a narrow loss in Indiana,
extended his lead in the count of delegates to the Democratic National
Convention, and in most counts of the combined popular vote. As important, they diminished Clinton’s rationale for urging Democratic
superdelegates to override his delegate lead and give the nomination to
her. Her case to party elders — that Obama was a flawed, flagging candidate
— lost much of its altitude despite a nail-biting and narrow victory in
Indiana. Her bread-and-butter pitch to voters fell prey to the doubts
Obama’s television campaign raised about her sincerity. What had been,
in the best of scenarios an up hill climb, became far steeper.
MORE: What Happened in Indiana and N.C. (David Paul Kuhn, Politico)
There were unique findings in the two states that separated these
voters from past contests — particularly the power of the issue of
economic anxiety. Nearly seven in 10 Indiana voters said the economy was the most
important issue, as did six in 10 North Carolinians. That degree of
economic concern in Indiana was above financial angst in Pennsylvania
or even Ohio, a state hit especially hard by unemployment. But unlike in Pennsylvania, the voters most anxious about the economy
were not handily carried by Clinton. In Indiana, she won only a slim
majority of these voters and in North Carolina, Obama won a majority. Also on the economic front, it appears Clinton’s gas tax proposal,
which was heavily debated this past week, likely did not move votes to
her side.
CLINTON AIDES DOUBTFUL ABOUT FUTURE
(Perry Bacon, Jr. and Anne E. Kornblut, Washington Post)
The outcome caused the candidate and her campaign to intensify their
efforts to persuade party leaders to include the results of
disqualified contests in Michigan and Florida, both of which she won.
The Democratic National Committee's
Rules and Bylaws committee is scheduled to meet on May 31 to consider
two challenges pending on whether, and how, to seat delegates from
those states. "Absent some sort of miracle on May 31st, it's going to be tough for
us," said a senior Clinton official who spoke on the condition of
anonymity in order to be frank. "We lost this thing in February. We're
doing everything we can now . . . but it's just an uphill battle."
HOW DOES CLINTON LOSE?
(Marc Ambinder, The Atlantic)
MAY 20 -- THAT'S the date when the campaign unofficially expects to
"clinch" the nomination -- when they'll officially have a majority of
pledged delegates, which triggers, in their view, the standard for
superdelegate decision-making set by party leaders like Nancy Pelosi. I
expect -- and the Obama campaign expects -- to see the pace of his
superdelegate pick-ups increase. They expect a few superdelegate
defections from Clinton as well. Within the next few weeks, Obama might
well pass Clinton in the number of superdelegate endorsements.
Remember, though: the superdelegates are followers. They're politically
wimpy... and they like to be wooed. EXPECT OBAMA in the next few days to prize unity above all else --
and to turn his attention away from Clinton and towards the notion of a
unified Democratic Party and the race against McCain. The Clinton
campaign will limp to West Virginia with just enough energy and barely
any money. The campaign will point to the DNC rules committee meeting
on 5/31, but DNC officials tell me that the staff recommendation
provided to the committee -- a recommendation that has so far been kept
secret -- is not unambiguously favorable to Clinton's interpretation of
the rules.
'YES WE CAN' VS. 'NO WE CAN'T'
(Jonathan Cohn, New Republic)
If Obama's slogan is "yes we can," McCain's is "no we can't." Obama
wants to invest heavily in better schools and public infrastructure?
McCain says it will cost too much money. Obama wants to make sure every
American has health insurance? McCain says it's socialized medicine.
Obama wants to make free trade more humane? McCain's says no, no,
no--that's messing with the free market. Even Obama's calls to
change political discourse for the better--the most familiar and, at
times, most empty part of his pitch--play into this dynamic. When Obama
says he wants to end the politics of division, McCain dismisses it as
just a slogan. Whether you think Obama is right or wrong about
these ideas--and, yes, I mostly think he's right--he's setting up the
fall as a debate between ambition and timidty, between hope and
cynicism, between optimism and pessimism. The last two
presidential elections that framed the choice this starkly were in 1992,
when Bill Clinton beat George H.W. Bush, and in 1980, when Ronald
Reagan beat Jimmy Carter. For
all of their ideological divisions, the two shared a fundamentally
positive vision: Clinton believed in a "place called hope"; Reagan
believed it was "morning in America." Those phrases sound a lot more
like Obama's rhetoric than McCain's. And while it's just one factor in
the general election, it helps explain why, for the first time in a
while,
I too am becoming more optimistic--about Democratic prospects for
November.
IT'S ALL OVER NOW, BABY BLUE
(John Judis, New Republic)
he Democratic primary is over. Hillary Clinton might
still run in West Virginia and Kentucky, which she'll win handily, but
by failing to win Indiana decisively and by losing North Carolina
decisively, she lost the argument for her own candidacy. She can't
surpass Barack Obama's delegate or popular vote count. The question is
no longer who will be the Democratic nominee, but whether Obama can
defeat Republican John McCain in November. And the answer to that is
still unclear. During
the last two months, Obama has faltered as a candidate. He has seen his
political base narrow rather than widen, and some of his strengths turn
into weaknesses. Of course, he has had to deal with the scandal
surrounding Reverend Jeremiah Wright, but even so, he needs to remedy
certain flaws in his political approach if he wants to defeat McCain in
the fall.
THE NOMINEES EMERGE, HOBBLED
(David Brooks, New York Times)
Obama has a much more liberal profile than he did several weeks ago.
Moderate, independent voters are now less sure that Obama shares their
values. Hillary Clinton voters are much, much more hostile toward him.
His supporters look more and more like the McGovern-Dukakis
constituency, and the walls between that constituency and the rest of
the country are higher than they were weeks ago. Obama is going to have to work hard to tear down those walls over
the coming months. He is going to have to work hard first to win over
the Clinton voters, who are more economically populist and socially
conservative than his supporters. He is also going to have to work hard
to win over suburban independents, who are less economically populist
than his current supporters. He’s going to have to break conspicuously
with orthodox liberalism to re-establish that values connection with
people in Ohio and Missouri.
CLINTON DESPERATE FOR A SUPER TURNAROUND
(Roger Simon, Politico)
There is a lot at stake for her that goes beyond the Democratic
convention. First, if she doesn’t get the nomination this time, she has
to exit in such a way as to not damage her political future. If Obama
loses the general election this year, he is unlikely to get a second
chance in 2012. (The Democrats don’t like to renominate losers; the
last time they did it was with Adlai Stevenson in 1956, and he lost
again.) Clinton could try for the nomination again, but even if she
does not run for president in 2012, she is up for reelection to the
Senate that year. Or she could run for governor of New York in 2010. Or
she might want to become majority leader of the Senate. She has options, but only if she manages her endgame carefully. If she becomes known as the candidate who was willing to destroy her
party in order to gain the nomination, she is likely to lose not just
the nomination but also her political future.