The next state on the Democratic primary schedule is, of course, West Virginia, which has Tuesday all to its amoeba-shaped self. Why is it, then, that Barack Obama has yet to book a single stop in, say, Shepherdstown, Charleston, Philippi, Sutton, Fayetteville, Fairlea or Bluefield--all of which have already hosted either Bill or Hillary Clinton?

 

Because he has no chance of winning--and no one seems to care.

 

Appearing on ABC's Nightline back in November 2007, Obama slipped into Bob Dole mode for this slightly overconfident assessment of his electoral chances: "Every place is Barack Obama country once Barack Obama's been there." The Mountain State seems unlikely to confirm his analysis--to put it mildly. Rasmussen released this year's first West Virginia poll in mid-March; it gave Clinton a 29-point advantage. The next survey, taken in early April, showed her ahead by a mere 15 points. But by the time May rolled around, Clinton's numbers had more than rebounded. In the latest polls, she now leads Obama by a whopping 40 to 43 points; he doesn't even break 24 percent. If those margins hold on Tuesday, the heavily white, heavily working-class West Virginia stands to be her strongest showing to date. Obama knows that no amount of campaigning could overcome Clinton's demographic advantages in Appalachia. Faced with a place that stands no chance of becoming "Barack Obama country," then, Barack Obama is choosing not to go there. Better to keep expectations low (much like Clinton did when she skipped Nebraska, Washington and Louisiana in February). "She is going to do very well in West Virginia," Obama said today in Beaverton, Ore., 2,600 miles from the Mountain State. "She will win... in all likelihood by [a] significant margin."

 

(For the record, Obama is still scrounging for votes--he's just not doing it in person. Since April 25, the Obama campaign has been airing an ad about soaring gas prices ("Nothing's Changed") on West Virginia TV. And on Wednesday, state field director Rachel Sigman urged supporters, via email, to "join us in West Virginia--just as so many of you did for North Carolina and Indiana--to go door-to-door and build our movement here."  Chicago's goal, of course, is to get as many delegates as possible on Tuesday--without making it obvious that they're actually, you know, exerting any effort. *Obama has visited only once before, on March 20,* and plans to stop by Monday to visit a coal mine or something, but only because he's heading from Oregon to Washington, D.C. and it's, like, on the way.)

 

That said, as much as any other post-Tuesday data point--Tim Russert declaring that "we now know who the Democratic nominee's going to be, and no one's going to dispute it," for example--Obama's West Virginia cold shoulder signals that his epic clash with Clinton is finally coming to an end. If the Mountain State had scheduled its primary for, say, April 29--i.e., the week after Pennsylvania--a 35-point loss in blue-collar country would've done him serious damage by amplifying the storyline du jour: namely, that Obama's Bubba Gap represented a potentially fatal flaw. But at this point, everyone knows that West Virginia's measly 28 delegates (or the 189 up for grabs afterwards) can't change the calculus of the race, meaning that they can't change the new narrative--Obama has the nomination sewn up--either. That's why the Illinois senator can get away with brushing off the entire contest. For her part, Clinton clearly wants West Virginia to count. "I think West Virginia is a test," she said Thursday in Charleston, noting that the state is rich in the "Catholic voters and Hispanic voters and blue-collar workers and seniors" that Dems will need to win in November. "It's a test for me, it's a test for Sen. Obama."

 

Unfortunately for Clinton, it's a test that Obama can afford to fail--and still finish first in his class.

 

*Updated 8:03 p.m.; the line about the coal mine is a joke, FYI.