A round-up of this morning's must-read stories.
WHAT WENT WRONG?
(Michelle Cottle, New Republic)
We asked (begged, really) a range of Hillarylanders for their up-close
and personal lists of "What Went Wrong?" Not everyone wanted to play.
Many stubbornly pointed out that their candidate is not yet dead. But,
on the condition of total anonymity, a fairly broad enough
cross-section of her staff responded--more than a dozen members all
told, from high-level advisors to grunt-level assistants, from money
men to on-the-ground organizers... "There was not any plan in place from beginning to end on how to win
the nomination. It was, 'Win Iowa.' There was not the experience level,
and, frankly, the management ability, to create a whole plan to get to
the magical delegate number. That to me is the number one thing. It's
starting from that point that every subsequent decision resulted. The
decision to spend x amount in Iowa versus be prepared for
February 5 and beyond. Or how much money to spend in South
Carolina--where it was highly unlikely we were going to win--versus the
decision not to fund certain other states. ... It was not as simple as,
'Oh, that's a caucus state, we're not going to play there.' That
suggests a more serious thought process. It suggests a meeting where we
went through all that."
BARACK OBAMA: THE NEW GREAT REDEEMER
(Gerard Baker, London Times)
It's fairly clear now that, with the near-certain nomination by the
Democrats of Barack Obama everything is in place for the media to
indulge in one of the greatest, orgiastic media fiestas of hero-worship
since Elvis Presley... This media narrative is not only an outgrowth of the journalists'
natural enthusiasm for a Democrat such as Mr Obama. It is also a clever
ploy to pre-emptively de-legitimise any Republican critique of the
Democratic nominee. It is designed to prevent Mr McCain from asking
reasonable questions about Mr Obama's strikingly vacuous political
background, or raising doubts about his credentials for the presidency. The
idolatry of Mr Obama is a shame, really. The Illinois senator is
indeed, an unusually talented, inspiring and charismatic figure. His
very ethnicity offers an exciting departure. But he is not a saint. He
is a smart and eloquent man with a personal history that is startlingly
shallow set against the scale of the office he seeks to hold. It is not
only legitimate, but necessary, to scrutinise his past and infer what
it might tell us about his beliefs, in the absence of the normal record
of achievement expected in a presidential nominee. If the past
40 years have taught us anything they have surely taught that premature
canonisation is an almost certain guarantee of subsequent deep
disappointment.
MCCAIN CAMPAIGN TO RE-VET ENTIRE STAFF
(Marc Ambinder, The Atlantic)
After a series of disclosures forced the resignation of two McCain
campaign aides with ties to unsavory regimes, the campaign has decided
to scrutinize the background of the entire staff to ferret out
connections to lobbyists. This morning, according to two Republicans with direct knowledge,
Rick Davis, the campaign manager, e-mailed to McCain's entire staff a
memo entitled "McCain Campaign Conflicts Policy" -- Effective Today"
that includes a questionnaire asking about previous professional
activities... The new conflicts policy prohibits campaign staffers from being
"registered lobbyist or foreign agent, or receive compensation for any
such activity."... Sympathetic critics -- including some within the campaign -- worry
that the damage to McCain's brand has already set in, and have, for
months, urged senior campaign officials to screen their staff. That the campaign waited until now to ask these questions of staff
suggests that no one at a senior enough level saw the presence of many
former lobbyists as a problem. Davis and senior strategist Charlie
Black are both former lobbyists.
THE MCCAIN DOCTRINES
(Matt Bai, New York Times Magazine)
If it is true that McCain’s Vietnam experience left him with a
different attitude about foreign wars from the one held by those who
were on the ground, then it certainly wasn’t apparent earlier in his
political career. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, after he
arrived in the Senate, McCain was, in fact, an outspoken opponent of
American intervention in faraway lands — at least in cases where the
country wasn’t willing to lose thousands of lives to achieve its aims.
But during the post-cold-war 1990s, as America’s foreign-policy
establishment struggled to define the nation’s obligations to the rest
of the world, McCain went through his own kind of inner journey,
seeking some balance between the legacy of Vietnam and the pull of new
crises around the globe — crises born of savagery and rife with human
consequence. That journey led him inexorably toward Iraq, where
McCain’s resolve hardened to the point that now, as he prepares to run
the climactic campaign of his life, he finds himself carrying the
weight of another war, one that has divided the country and devastated
his party. One way or the other, Iraq will determine this last phase of
McCain’s political life, as surely as the war in Vietnam defined its
beginning.
MCCAIN AND OBAMA TILT TOWARD THE CENTER ON IRAQ PLANS
(Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times)
After launching their candidacies with opposite positions on the Iraq
war, Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama seem to be edging
toward a middle ground between them. McCain has long denounced timetables for withdrawal, but said for the
first time Thursday that he would like to see most U.S. troops out of
Iraq by a specific date: 2013. Obama has emphasized his plan to withdraw all combat brigades within 16
months of taking office, but also has carefully hedged, leaving the
option of taking more time -- and leaving more troops -- if events
require. The positioning is noteworthy because McCain and Obama have made Iraq
war policy a core element of their campaigns. But McCain has bowed to
the political reality that American impatience with the war is growing,
and Obama to the fact that a poorly executed exit would risk damage to
other vital U.S. interests.
HOW OBAMA AND MCCAIN DEFINE EACH OTHER
(John Dickerson, Slate)
The quickest way to understand the emerging foreign-policy debate
between John McCain and Barack Obama is to look at the unpopular world
leader each is trying to turn into the other's running mate. McCain has
picked Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for Obama, and Obama has selected George W.
Bush for McCain. The benefit of the boogeyman strategy for both Obama and McCain is
that it allows each to tie his opponent to a highly unpopular man who
can be counted on to regularly say unpopular things. When Ahmadinejad
produces one of his outbursts, McCain will raise the alarm about
Obama's odd, accommodating, touchy-feely diplomacy. How could he even
think about meeting with such an evil character? When Bush paints his
ideological opponents as appeasers, or otherwise colors in black and
white only, Obama gets a chance to argue that McCain shares the
rigidity that led Bush and his team to rush into war on faulty
evidence. The similarities in the guilt-by-association
strategies only go so far, obviously. Obama is nowhere near Ahmadinejad
and on many issues McCain is quite close to Bush. That should make it
easy for Obama to wriggle free, whereas the pictures of McCain hugging
Bush will be omnipresent and harder to escape. Whether that's true
depends on how well the candidate being drummed by this attack is able
to speak for himself.
WHAT OBAMA OWES THE CLINTONS
(Peter Beinart, Time)
If Clinton had been more principled, if he had been less of a panderer,
if he had tried to be purer than his political opponents--if, in other
words, he had been more like Obama--he might have opposed the death
penalty, vetoed welfare reform and unambiguously defended affirmative
action. He might also have gone with his liberal base, not Wall Street,
and chosen economic stimulus over deficit reduction in 1993. And had he
done those things, Barack Obama would probably not be in a commanding
position to become the next President of the U.S. So as they bid
Clintonism goodbye, Obama fans should show a little gratitude. If Bill
weren't the person they revile, Barack couldn't be the person they love.
OBAMA ADMIRES BUSH
(David Brooks, New York Times)
“The debate we’re going to be having with John McCain is how do we
understand the blend of military action to diplomatic action that we
are going to undertake,” he said. “I constantly reject this notion that
any hint of strategies involving diplomacy are somehow soft or indicate
surrender or means that you are not going to crack down on terrorism.
Those are the terms of debate that have led to blunder after blunder.”... Obama doesn’t broadcast moral disgust when talking about terror
groups, but he said that in some ways he’d be tougher than the Bush
administration. He said he would do more to arm the Lebanese military
and would be tougher on North Korea. “This is not an argument between
Democrats and Republicans,” he concluded. “It’s an argument between
ideology and foreign policy realism. I have enormous sympathy for the
foreign policy of George H. W. Bush. I don’t have a lot of complaints
about their handling of Desert Storm. I don’t have a lot of complaints
with their handling of the fall of the Berlin Wall.” In the
early 1990s, the Democrats and the first Bush administration had a
series of arguments — about humanitarian interventions, whether to get
involved in the former Yugoslavia, and so on. In his heart, Obama talks
like the Democrats of that era, viewing foreign policy from the ground
up. But in his head, he aligns himself with the realist dealmaking of
the first Bush. Apparently, he’s part Harry Hopkins and part James
Baker.
RULING COULD REVIVE GAY MARRIAGE ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN
(Adam Nagourney, New York Times)
This year, the decision in California could at the very least have
resonance with socially conservative voters in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Even if Mr. McCain does not wield it as part of his fall campaign — and
his political associates said he almost certainly would not — history
suggests that independent conservative advocacy groups would seize on
the ruling to try to define Mr. Obama and his party as culturally
out-of-step. Presumably, it is just a matter of time until voters
across the country see advertisements including same-sex couples taking
their vows on the steps of San Francisco City Hall. There is
considerable debate whether the marriage issue helped Republican
candidates in 2004. And it seems questionable if voters are going to
find it compelling this year, at a time when the country is facing a
prolonged war, an ailing economy and skyrocketing gasoline prices, the
issues that Mr. McCain and the two Democratic candidates are
confronting on the campaign trail every day.
IN THE SOUTH, A FORCE TO CHALLENGE THE G.O.P.
(Adam Nossiter and Janny Scott, New York Times)
Should Mr. Obama become the Democratic nominee, he would still have
to struggle for white swing voters in the South and in border states
like West Virginia, where he lost decisively to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton
in Tuesday’s presidential primary... But in Southern states with large black populations, like Alabama, Mississippi and Virginia,
an energized black electorate could create a countervailing force,
particularly if conservative white voters choose not to flock to
Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee. Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta, predicts “the largest black turnout in the history of the United States” this fall if Mr. Obama is the nominee. To
hold these states, Republicans may have to work harder than ever.
Already, turnout in Democratic primaries this year has substantially
exceeded Republican turnout in states like Arkansas, Louisiana, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia. Some analysts suggest that North Carolina
and Virginia may even be within reach for the Democratic nominee, and
they point to the surprising result in a Congressional special election
in Mississippi this week as an indicator of things to come.
MORE: Obama Warns Republicans About Critical Ads (Charles Babington, Associated Press)
Perhaps no one took greater comfort in the Republican Party's third straight loss of a long-held House seat this week than Barack Obama, who says the results point to clear limits in the effectiveness of attack ads he expects this fall. The Democratic presidential candidate played a prominent role in all
three special elections to fill vacant GOP seats, and he landed on the
winning side each time... "The same kinds of tactics that the Republican Party has been employing
over the last several election cycles just aren't going to work this
time," he told reporters on his charter plane after receiving former
rival John Edwards' endorsement Wednesday. "I mean, they did everything
they could, right? They ran Wright. They ran Obama. In Louisiana, they
ran Pelosi. The same way that in previous election cycles they had run
Hillary or other folks they thought would scare off voters. It didn't
work."