SUNRISE, Fla.--These days, the
most popular parlor game in Washington, D.C. is "Guess Hillary
Clinton's Next Gig." Will she maneuver for the vice presidency? How
about New York governor? Perhaps she'll push Harry Reid from his perch
atop the Senate; then again, Supreme Court justice has a nice ring to
it. Sage suggestions, all of them. But after spending the day on
Clinton's tour of South Florida, I have a different idea: Hillary
Rodham Clinton for Secretary of the Popular Vote.
Think about it. The Baroness of Ballots. The Enforcer of Enfranchisement. The Czarina of Chads.
With
no plausible path to the White House, Clinton has spent her one-day
Sunshine State swing shifting gears from presidential candidate to
(ahem) voting-rights activist. She's explicitly
compared
the ongoing Florida and Michigan dispute to the "poll taxes and
literacy tests, violence and intimidation, dogs and tear gas" of the
Jim Crow South--while implicitly comparing herself, the champion of
"counting every vote," to abolitionists, suffragettes and civil rights
martyrs. And judging by the standards she's setting on the stump,
Clinton won't rest anytime soon. On May 31, the DNC's Rules Committee,
in an attempt to set some sort of precedent, will likely follow in the
footsteps of the Republicans and agree to seat half of each scofflaw
state's delegates. Will the senator from New York be satisfied? Not
likely. Even though she praised the GOP here in Sunrise for "mov[ing]
quickly to resolve their problem" and damned the Dems for "allow[ing]
ours to go on," Clinton also insisted that "the Democratic party...
count these votes, and... count them exactly as they were cast." Half?
That's half of what Hillary wants. With her demands unmet, Clinton
could conceivably soldier on... indefinitely. Asked by the AP this
afternoon whether she'd support Florida and Michigan if they decided to
take their dispute with the DNC to the convention, Clinton responded,
"Yes I will. I will, because I feel very strongly about this." Which is
why I said she should serve as the next administration's (entirely
made-up) Popular Vote Secretary; there's little chance that the votes
will be counted "exactly as they were cast" before then--if only
because delegates, not votes, determine the Democratic nominee. That in
mind, I'm sure Barack Obama or John McCain would be happy to have her.
After all, the abolitionists didn't give up just because of some stupid
"Rules Committee."
But let's assume Clinton stops short of the full
kamikaze--a far likelier outcome. If the DNC follows its own rules and
doesn't apportion the Florida and Michigan delegates according to the
precise popular vote--they're guaranteed to award Obama a few in
Michigan, for example, rather than disenfranchise the hundreds of thousands of Michiganders who intended to vote for him--what will the lasting effect of Clinton's crusade be? In his
column
today, my colleague Jonathan Alter suggested that, by rallying her fans around a hopeless cause, Clinton is actively
delegitimizing Obama's inevitable nomination--and ensuring that
Democratic divisions only get worse. "The shorthand many Clinton
supporters are already taking into the summer is that she won the
popular vote but had the nomination 'taken away' (as Joy Behar said on
'The View') by a man," he wrote. And Clinton herself provided some
ammunition for this sort of argument this afternoon. Reminding the
people of Broward County that "the candidate who got fewer votes [in
2000] was inaugurated president" (as if they needed reminding) Clinton
warned that without Florida and Michigan "you will have a nominee based
on 48 states"--a situation that would lead many loyalists to conclude,
as Clinton put it, that "if the Democrats don't want my vote, maybe
John McCain and the Republicans do." It's true that some supporters
will hear Clinton's remarks as "
Obama will win an incomplete election with fewer votes, so it's reasonable to jump ship"--even if that's not what the senator meant. Divisive? Try nuclear.
That
said, the view from 35,000-feet is always a little blurry. Speaking
with a dozen or so men and women at the Sunrise Lakes Phase 4 Clubhouse
after Clinton concluded her speech, I found that their views on the
Florida and Michigan contretemps (and the Democratic race overall) were
a lot more nuanced than the worrywarts in Washington assume. Take Marie
Dominique, a retired Sunrise resident of black, Caribbean-American
descent. Asked whether she voted for Hillary in January's primary,
Dominique laughed. "I'm not going to say," she said. "I'm not going to
say." (At this, a friend mouthed "Obama.")
But you were still interested in hearing her out today?
I asked. "Absolutely, absolutely," she said. "Very interested." The
thing is, despite supporting Obama, Dominique agrees with Clinton that
the DNC should factor in Florida's votes. "There's a lot people did not
know if those votes were going to be counted," she said. "They went
without knowing, hoping they would." What's more, Dominique would even
be fine with Clinton as the nominee: "I know it's not the correct thing
to say"--for an Obama fan, that is--"but we have to wait until
everything is counted to rule one out from the other. As a Democrat, I
will vote for whoever is on the ticket."
Will Clinton supporters accept a Florida and Michigan compromise? "What other choice is there," said Dominique. "It's the last option.
Then
there's Carmen Irizarry, a 66-year-old housewife and hard-core
Clintonista who'd driven an hour from Miami Beach for the event. After
noticing that she'd written "Count Our Votes" on a cocktail napkin, I
approached and asked whether she agreed with Clinton's message. "Oh
yes," she said, "Oh yes." Born in Puerto Rico, Irizarry boasted of her
Hillary-obsessed 11-year-old and her family back on the island, whom
she'd convinced to volunteer for the campaign. But when I wondered
aloud if it would be equitable to award Obama zero votes in Michigan,
where his name wasn't on the ballot, Irizarry wouldn't go quite as far
as her candidate. "I'm for Florida," she said. "Let it be the way it
is. But Michigan, that's a little unfair with those 'undecideds' or
whatever you call them." As we were saying goodbye, I posed a final
question: Do you think Hillary can win the nomination? Irizarry
paused for a moment. "Those superdelegates, I don't know," she said.
"But you can't change the rules now." She touched my forearm and
glanced at Clinton, who was smiling for snapshots ten feet away. "She's
strong," she said. "She would've been a great president."
Of
course, there are still firebreathers, naysayers and vindictive
partisans on both sides of the Democratic divide. But in the end, it
seems, the vast majority of the American people are eminently
reasonable--even when their representatives aren't.
UPDATE, May 22: Worth noting, as
ABC News does, that Hillary's new "100 percent or bust" position on Florida's delegation contradicts what her husband Bill said on the subject just last week:
Bill Clinton called giving Florida half its delegates -- similar to how
the Republican National Committee penalized the state for holding an
earlier-than-allowed contest -- an "appropriate penalty." "The Republican Party said 'OK, we'd like to win Florida in the fall so
we are gonna invoke our rule, they got out of turn, we will seat their
delegates as half a delegate and seat their superdelegates,' " Clinton
said at a campaign event in Missoula, Mon. "That is an appropriate
penalty."