
And the Washingtons, too.
In their haste to obsess over every detail and every implication of
last night's largely inconsequential Oregon and Kentucky primaries, the
cable-news chatterati forgot the cardinal rule of political journalism:
follow the money.
As the returns were still rolling in,
the campaigns of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John McCain quietly
filed their April financial reports with the FEC--and the stats told a
more interesting story than whatever was happening in Beaver and
Bluegrass country. For starters, Clinton is beyond broke. During what
some guy named Eliot called the cruelest month, Clinton spent nearly $8
million more ($28.9 million) than she raised ($21 million); even if you
factor in the $5 million she loaned herself, she's still nearly $3
million shy of solvency. Of course, there's also her crushing debt to
contend with--$19.5 million in all, or nearly triple the amount ($7
million) Clinton has on hand for the remaining primaries. It's no
wonder the New York senator started her speech last night with an
advertisement for hillaryclinton.com. Still, there are signs that even
her supporters' generosity is subsiding. After boasting of a $10
million post-Pennsylvania haul--when Clinton's odds of clinching the
nomination were at a peak--the campaign would only peg the May 6 and
May 13 tallies as "in the seven digits." With only three contests
remaining and Obama's grip on the crown getting tighter every day,
Clinton won't be able to raise the kind of cash needed to run a
full-force presidential campaign for much longer.
Obama, on the
other hand, is still raking it in. Despite having his worst month
ever--think Rev. Wright (take two), Bittergate and Pennsylvania--the
Democratic frontrunner still managed to raise nearly $32 million in
April. Sure, that's only slightly more than he spent. But thanks to
surpluses from earlier months, the Illinois senator still has $37
million--or $30 million more than Clinton--to drop on the last three
primaries. Asymmetric warfare, indeed.
Luckily for Clinton,
Obama is focusing on laying the groundwork for his general-election
campaign--which is where John McCain comes in. The Arizona senator
trailed his likely Democratic rival by a wide margin, but still managed
to raise a respectable $18.5 million--his best month to date. And
despite a flurry of news stories today commenting on the sizable gap
between the candidates' bank accounts, McCain is actually leading Obama
if you include their respective parties in the mix: according to the
Politico's Mike Allen, the Republicans [McCain + RNC] started May with
a war chest of more than $62 million ($40 + $22),
while the Democrats [Obama + DNC] started with about $20 million less
($37 + $4.5). McCain's problem? The advantage won't last long. While
Obama has raised a total of $272 million from 1.5 million individual donors
(who, with an average contribution of about $100, are nowhere near maxing out), most of McCain's money comes from a
far smaller number of big-time Republicans each contributing the $2,300
maximum. In the fall, McCain plans to take public funds, which will
limit his personal spending to $85 million, and steer the rest of his
would-be benefactors to the RNC. But there are only so many fat-cats to tap.
Once Democratic loyalists who supported Clinton in the primary start
ponying up for Obama and flooding the DNC, McCain's going to be
painfully outgunned.