In which Stumper examines
the Republican nominee's possible--and not-so-possible--vice-presidential picks. (Previous McCain installments: Bobby Jindal; previous Obama installments: Ted Strickland; Jim Webb.)
Name: Mitt Romney
Age: 61
Resume: Former governor of Massachusetts, 2008 Republican presidential candidate
Source of speculation: How
Romney and McCain spent their Memorial Day weekend: together. On
Friday, the presumptive Republican nominee split from the campaign
trail for a three-day break at his ranch in Sedona, Arizona. But he
didn't put all presidential preparations on hold. Joining McCain for
what aides insistently--and euphemistically--described as a "social
weekend" were three of his top veep contenders: Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida and, of course, Romney. What a coincidence--or not. On background, associates admitted to the New York Times last Wednesday that "while these would not be formal
interviews, the weekend would provide Mr. McCain a chance to know some
of his potential running mates in a social context." Think "Survivor: Veepstakes Edition." Horseshoes, anyone?
Backstory:
Since quitting the Republican race on Feb. 7, Romney has made no secret
of his desire to serve as McCain's second fiddle. “I think any
Republican leader in this country would be honored to be
asked to serve as the vice presidential nominee, myself included," he told FOX's Sean Hannity on March 11. "If the
nominee of our party asked you to serve with him, anybody would be
honored to receive that call … and to accept it, of course.” Meanwhile, two of D.C.'s most wired conservative journalists--Bob Novak
and Fred Barnes--have reported that all the president's men are pushing
Romney for number two. "President Bush favors him as McCain's veep,"
wrote Barnes
in March. "Jeb Bush, the former
Florida governor, preferred Romney over McCain in the primaries, but
never endorsed him publicly. Karl Rove, the president's political
strategist, has hinted that he considers Romney to be McCain's best
running mate." And, lest we forget, Romney has even paid McCain the
most flattering of canine compliments: "when it comes to national
security, John McCain is the big dog--and [Clinton and Obama] are the
chihuahuas" Woof.
Odds: Moderate.
As a running mate for McCain, Romney is almost all upside. For
starters, he's a decade younger than McCain, 71, and looks about 50--a key consideration for a candidate who often claims he's
"older than dirt." As veep, Romney's executive experience and
private-sector expertise--before serving as Massachusetts governor, he
was CEO of Bain and Company, co-founder of Bain Capital and savior of
the troubled 2002 Salt Lake Olympics--would help dispel doubts about
the managerial and economic acumen of his partner, a career legislator
who often shows little interest in subjects other than foreign policy
or government reform. ("The issue of economics is not something I’ve understood
as well as I should," McCain has infamously said.) Regarding the
electoral map, Mitt, unlike other VP hopefuls, won't help McCain win
his home state--the deep-blue Massachusetts--but he could very well
boost his boss's bid in the increasingly purple swing state of Michigan, where
his father was governor and the Romney brand is strong. With proven skill
at soliciting donations and a personal fortune of $250 million--which,
we should note, he's not afraid to spend campaigning for office--Romney could also help close the massive fundraising gap between McCain and Barack Obama. And by bringing to the ticket a built-in base that was large enough to
keep him neck-and-neck with his former rival from Arizona through Super
Tuesday--and consists, with its blend of hard-core fiscal conservatives
and family-values voters, of Republicans who've been somewhat wary of
embracing the unorthodox GOP nominee--Romney would probably do the most of all the potential picks to excite
dispirited, ground-level Republicans. That alone is a substantial bright spot in these dark
days of GOP decline and Democratic enthusiasm.
Still, Romney is only "almost" all
upside--and his biggest liability is a potential game-ender. It's not
so much that Romney ran an extremely confused (and confusing) primary
campaign, tacking wildly from "Reaganite rightwinger" to "moderate
technocrat" over the course of 2007 and early 2008; although Democrats
would surely paint him as a hypocrite, citing his flip-flops on
abortion and gay marriage, Mitt's chameleonic talents might actually come
in handy during a general election in which wooing Independents is at least as
important as appeasing the base. And it's not that Romney spent months
attacking McCain in precisely the same way that Obama is now attacking
him ("John McCain can't CHANGE Washington," he once said. "John McCain
IS Washington"); sure, the Dems would cut a few biting ads, but voters'
memories are reliably short when it comes to such shenanigans (after
all, John Edwards' 2004 primary season swipes at John Kerry didn't
haunt the joint ticket that fall).
In
the end, it seems Mitt's major
problem isn't political--it's personal. In the wake of Romney's
February withdrawal, it was widely reported that Team McCain considered
their recently vanquished rival an unprincipled opportunist, and in
interviews and speeches at the time, the candidate was barely able to
keep his contempt in check. Since then, Romney and McCain have raised money
together, and Romney, for one, has said "there are really no hard
feelings, I don't think." But an lingering animosity doesn't bode well
for Mitt. For a pol, McCain places an unusually high premium on friendships
and loyalty--and, according to the Times, "associates [have already] said personal chemistry would be a crucial consideration in his choice" for veep.
That
said, McCain had little trouble overcoming his resentment toward
President Bush--who sunk McCain in South Carolina in 2000 with a whispering campaign about a "black" love child--and embracing him when it became a political necessity. Who's to say he won't repeat the process with Romney?
Talk about a high-stakes game of horseshoes.
UPDATE, 9:30 p.m.: Commenters brett12 and gawksquawk make some smart points. Here's the latter:
Romney would be a major liability to McCain in the south and
mid-west. I think it would all but guarantee Obama victories in Iowa
and Virginia, as well as put North Carolina and Missouri squarely in
play. During the Iowa campaign, it almost seemed like the evangelicals
were determined to find another candidate so they wouldn't have to vote
for McCain or Romney. First they turned to Fred Thompson. When it
turned out that he didn't want to run for the job they turned to Mike
Huckabee. Huckabee went on to win the majority of evangelical voters
until he dropped out of the race. Evangelicals don't like McCain
because they view him as too moderate. They don't like Romney because
he allowed himself to be perceived as pro-choice and pro-gay-rights
when it suited him as Governor of Massachusetts. The combination of the
two of them on the same ticket may drop evangelical turnout. When
combined with the increased African-American turnout Obama is expected
to generate, this may result in the Democrats winning in some
surprising places. One upside you didn't mention is a potential boost in Nevada and
Colorado the ticket would receive from Mormon voters. They're not
nearly as numerous in those states as they are in Utah, but in a close
race they could make the difference.
I agree that Romney's shift from moderate Massachusetts governor to
rightwing Republican candidate has left some evangelicals wondering what he actually believes
(his Mormonism doesn't help). But I'm not convinced that the difference
in evangelical turnout between a McCain-Crist ticket or a McCain-Jindal
ticket and a McCain-Romney ticket is enough to sink the Arizona senator
in the South and Midwest. Why? Well, I suspect that the evangelicals
who'd stay home because Romney is No. 2 are the ones most likely to already
be staying home because of McCain, and that he's probably not going to
find a running mate who'd win back enough of those hardliners to make a
significant electoral difference. In other words, McCain has an
evangelical turnout problem with or without Romney, so he may be
smarter to pick a veep--maybe Romney, maybe not--who can help shore him
up in states like Colorado and Nevada and help turn states like
Michigan red. I suspect that McCain will still win the South; places like Ohio are the problem. Just my two cents...