
And
now it's over. Today, after 17 months of stumping and sniping,
of winning and losing, of bitter arugula waffles and 3:00 a.m. RFK
sniper fire, the good people of South Dakota and Montana will finally
bring this marathon Democratic nomination contest to an official close.
With Obama expected to clobber Clinton by double digits in both
states and (thanks to a last-minute surge of superdelegate support)
to reach a magic 2,118 majority shortly thereafter, it's no secret
who's going to emerge as tonight's big winner. But one question still remains: Will Hillary Clinton bow out--or battle on?
Signal from Hillaryland are mixed--to put it mildly. Below, we've
compiled Team Clinton's conflicting clues about what's next for their
fearless leader. According to the Politico,
"none outside Clinton's tight inner circle -- her husband, daughter,
and two or three aides--are sure what she's going to do." So until she
lets the rest of us in on her secret, this is the best we've got:
BATTLE ON:
Clinton is still saying that she's won more votes and is more
electable than Obama--and insists that she will continue to do so "in
the coming days." "Here’s the case that I will be making over the
coming days [to the superdelegates]," she told voters yesterday in
Yankton, S.D. "We
have won the popular vote, which best represents the will of the
people... We are winning the swing states and the
swing voters that Democrats must win to take back the White House. And
in every poll that has been done independently in the last several
months I am beating John McCain in the key states. I have proven that I
have what it takes to get the 270 electoral votes that is required to
win back the White House." (Read our take on Clinton's popular-vote claim here.)
But what if the superdelegates break for Obama and he technically clinches the nomination? Not a problem, Clinton has said. “One
thing about superdelegates is they can change their minds,” she told a
gaggle of reporters on Sunday. "I think it’s
only now that we’re finishing these contests that people
are going to actually reflect on who is our stronger candidate. And I
believe I am. And I’m going to make that case." For how long will she make
that case? Here's one possible hint, from a letter circulated by a Clinton fundraising aide: "The automatic delegates can change their mind up until their
vote at the convention, and that is why this nominating process must be
resolved in August, and no earlier." Denver or bust?
Oh, and about using 2,118 as a magic number--the Clinton folks are not so into that, either. At
the end of Saturday's DNC meeting, top Clinton aide Harold Ickes railed
against the Michigan decision, saying it "violates the bedrock
principles of our democracy and our Party" and reserving "the right to
challenge this decision before the Credentials Committee and appeal for
a fair allocation of Michigan’s delegates that actually reflect the
votes as they were cast." That ostensibly gives Clinton space to argue
that Obama hasn't clinched the nomination even after he reaches
2,118--and a rationale for sticking around through the summer, just in
case lightning strikes. Asked by a reporter Sunday whether the finish line is now set at 2,118 delegates, Clinton campaign Chairman Terry McAuliffe said "No, it's not it." And a source told the New York Daily News this morning that "the Clintons 'are considering more seriously than you'd imagine' taking
the fight to the party's credentials committee."
Last but not least: the Clinton camp insists that the former first lady will NOT drop out tonight. After the Associated Press reported
this morning that "Hillary Rodham Clinton will concede Tuesday night
that Barack Obama has the delegates to secure the Democratic
nomination," the campaign sent a terse, two-sentence email to
reporters: "The AP story is incorrect. Senator Clinton will not concede
the nomination this evening." Sort of hard to go back on that. Moreover, Ickes tells my NEWSWEEK colleague Suzanne Smalley
exclusively that, "There is nothing going on... She has not made any
decision yet about going to [the] credentials [committee], and I think
any decision she does make will be made in the context of what happens
over the course of the next week."
BOW OUT:
The setting. While Obama looks forward with tonight's speech
(he's speaking from the site of the Republican convention in St. Paul,
Minn.) Clinton returns home--literally--choosing to skip South Dakota
and Montana and celebrate instead in New York City after huddling with
her inner circle at her mansion in Chappaqua. What's more, Clinton's
finance director, Jonathan Mantz, sent an email
out to top fundraisers inviting them to the event. While Ickes cautions
Smalley not to read too much into the decision--"She has decided to go
back to New York [because] she has a donor base there, a lot of
supporters there"--it's hard not to note the symbolism or the
implications. Also: Obama is raising money in New York Wednesday night, and according to NBC sources, Ickes told an unnamed House member that "it's over" and suggested that "HRC will... appear... with Obama and use that platform to being to unify the party."
The logistics. Team Clinton has taken several logistical
steps that suggest the campaign is winding down--if not necessarily
ending tonight. As Marc Ambinder
notes, "Clinton Campaign staffers and former campaign staffers are
being urged
by the Clinton campaign's finance department to turn in their
outstanding expense receipts by the end of the week... If
Clinton were staying in the race, there'd be no real reason to collect
these receipts now; she'd still be raising and spending money from the
same primary campaign account." Other hints: Clinton has no appearances
scheduled after Wednesday morning, when she speaks before a pro-Israel
group in Washington; "Clinton aides [have] considered and rejected a plan to have her campaign later
this week in states that will be important in the general election," according to the Los Angeles Times; and the campaign is telling advance staffers that their employment is ending. Asked about reports citing the elimination of advance staff, Ickes said, “We
have had a huge advance staff because we’ve been to a motherlode of states… We
don’t need that large an advance staff after tomorrow.” But then again, Obama isn't shedding his staffers, now is he?
This morning, the ever-optimistic McAuliffe acknowledged defeat. "I
think if Senator Obama gets the number she will congratulate him and
call him the nominee," he said on the Today show."I don't think she's
going to go to the credentials committee. We're not going to have a
fight over four delegates."
And even Bill "The Comeback Kid" Clinton is sounding valedictory notes. "I want to say also that this may be the last day I'm
ever involved in a campaign of this kind," the former president said yesterday in Milbank, S.D.
"I thought I was out of politics until Hillary decided to run. But it
has been one of the greatest honors of my life to be able to go around
and campaign for her for president."
SO WHAT WILL HAPPEN TONIGHT?
No one knows for sure, but we have a hunch: something in between bowing
out and battling on. Citing "campaign officials," the AP says
that "once [Obama] reaches the magic number of 2,118"--which, again,
will likely happen tonight-- "Clinton will acknowledge
that he has secured the necessary delegates to be the nominee"--but
"will stop short of formally suspending or ending her race in her
speech in New York City." That report seems pretty accurate to us. Tonight,
Clinton will recognize Obama's delegate victory and celebrate what her
campaign has accomplished. But as promised, the former first lady will
spend "the coming days" privately arguing to undeclared and Obama
superdelegates that the popular vote, not the delegate count, "best
represents the will of the people" and gaging how likely they are to
"change their minds." When she inevitably concludes that they aren't,
she'll finally "congratulate [Obama] and call him the nominee"--perhaps
on Thursday, as Friday is the 40th anniversary of Robert F. Kennedy's
assassination (and probably not the best time for politics). No credentials committee, no floor fight at the convention.
Meanwhile,
her campaign apparatus will grind to a halt as employees turn in
receipts and schedule their first vacations since 2006. But it won't be
dismantled completely. For starters,
"Texas Democrats are meeting Friday and Saturday to divide up 67
delegates between Clinton and Obama"--and "with as many as 1,500
Clinton
supporters due to attend, it would be a disservice to them for Clinton
to drop her candidacy now." Other such conventions are taking place
throughout the summer. From now until Denver, then Clinton's suspended
campaign will likely try to amass as many delegates as possible, and
Clinton will do whatever she can to stay relevant. The point (we
suspect): pressuring Obama to pick her for vice president--a post that
Bill
Clinton, for one, is reportedly insisting she has "earned." If not, she'll be there in case that lightning does, in fact, strike.
As Hillary herself put it in
Yankton, S.D. yesterday, "Tomorrow is the last day of the primaries and
the beginning of a new phase in the campaign." Indeed.
UPDATE, 3:30 p.m.: Our colleagues at MSNBC confirm that on a conference
call this afternoon with New York's congressional delegation, Clinton
was asked whether she'd consider joining an Obama ticket as his veep--and instead of giving her usual answer ("it's premature") stressed that she is "open to it." And according to the Buffalo News, Clinton raised the possibility of serving as Obama's running mate herself. "She brought it up, and it it was reaffirmed by others," said state Rep. Brian Higgins ""It was in the context of: we've got to win this thing." Either way, she didn't demur.
Meanwhile, California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a staunch Clinton ally, told CNN that the race is over--and also suggested that Obama should pick Clinton as his second in command. "I think after the campaigns are wrapped up today, it is in fact a
moment of truth," said Feinstein. "I think a decision has to be
made about whether keeping this nomination wide open is in the best
interest of winning in November. I do not believe that it is, and I'm a
very strong supporter of Hillary being placed on ticket as a vice
presidential candidate."
As Time's Mark Halperin notes, the building "Clinton for Veep" chatter--and pressure--puts Obama in an uncomfortable position: if he rebuffs his former foe--especially after she has openly expressed interest--the backlash from her supporters will be severe (to put it mildly). Moreover, the longer he waits, the worse it will get. Writes Halperin: "Any delay in choosing a running mate will only bring rampant
speculation about whether he is going to pick Clinton – and if not, why
not – speculation so extreme it might warp and dominate the entire
process (and potentially create reams of critical and distracting press
for his eventual Veep selection)." So expect an accelerated veepstakes--whether or not Clinton is the eventual winner.