Looks like somebody's excited.

Presidential campaigns aren't required by law to comment on last month's fundraising total until the 20th of the following month--and, indeed, Barack Obama has survived first week of June without mentioning May's moolah. But this afternoon, John McCain just so happened to let it slip that he raised $21.5 million in May--which just so happened to break the Arizona senator's previous one-month record of $18 million, set in April. Oh, and in case you're wondering: he started June with, like, $31.5 million in cash on hand. FYI.

I tease, but Team McCain has every right to be proud of its accomplishment. For most of the cycle, the senator has lagged badly behind his Democratic opponent in the dinero department. Since the start of 2007, for example, McCain has raised $115 million. Which isn't too shabby--unless you compare it to Obama's total haul of $272 million. And if we're talking single month records, $21.5 is a mere 39 percent of the Illinois hopemonger's top take--$55 million in February. That said, it now looks as if McCain has caught up--or even taken the lead. Assuming Obama broke even in May--perhaps a bit generous, considering that he was fighting Hillary Clinton in eight remaining primary states at the same time he was attacking John McCain on the broader battlefield--he probably has about $38 million in the bank; factor in the Democratic National Committee's $4 million in available funds, and he's up to $42 million. Sure, that's more than McCain's $31.5. But it doesn't come close to the RNC's $53.6 million war chest--or the Republicans' joint fund of $85.1 million. As Eric Kleefield at TPM Election Central puts it, "in short, money will probably not be a huge problem for [McCain] this fall."

But have the financial tables really turned? I suspect not. For starters, McCain and the RNC have had the Republican fundraising field to themselves since March 4; Obama, meanwhile, has been forced to compete against Clinton, who siphoned off a full $200 million in potential Democratic donations. Now that Obama is reaching out to Clinton's contributors, expect his cashflow (and the DNC's) to increase exponentially. What's more, Obama boasts more than 1.5 million donors--three or four times McCain's pool of several hundred thousand. While McCain's fat cats are quick to max out, Obama can keep returning to his base (average check: about $100) for more donations. Finally, McCain rakes in the vast majority of his money at high-rolling, time-consuming fundraisers that keep him off the trail; Obama, in contrast, gets most of cash his online, leaving him free to woo voters in person.

Going forward, this is crucial. Money, of course, doesn't always translate into victories--otherwise, Mitt Romney would be the Republican nominee. But if Obama raises anything near what experts are estimating--at least $300 million (or $38 million a week) for the two-month general election sprint, plus whatever the DNC vacuums up--McCain, who plans to limit himself to public funds of $85 million, may be spread painfully thin. (To keep up, the RNC would have to raise something like $250 million for September and October--a significant leap from 2004's receipts.) If Obama meets expectations, he would not only be able to invest in more states than McCain--including previously safe Republican properties like Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia and Colorado--but he could devote more time to actual campaigning. Meanwhile, McCain would be forced to defend his turf and fend off his free-spending foe in traditional swing states like Ohio, Florida and Missouri--while regularly detouring from the trail to keep the RNC's coffers filled.

Not exactly something to be excited about.