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Oh, wait. Sorry about that. It seems that I passed out on the upper left-hand corner of my keyboard. Must've been the news that Al Gore endorsed Barack Obama last night that put me to sleep.
In
a move that surprised exactly no one, the former Democratic nominee for
president traveled yesterday to Detroit's Joe Louis Arena to throw his
support to... the current Democratic nominee for president. "This
moment and this election are too important to let pass without taking
action," he said. Of course, the Oscar- and Nobel-winning veep could've
delivered his benediction earlier--like, say, February, when it may
have helped bring the interminable Democratic primary battle between
Obama and Gore's ex-boss's wife, Hillary Clinton, to an earlier
conclusion. After all, Gore and Obama have talked frequently since
January 2007, including in a meeting last fall at Gore’s home in
Nashville--while Hillary and Gore aren't what you would call close.
That he didn't--and that he waited a full ten days after his choice had
narrowed to a) a Democrat or b) a Republican--is evidence either of his
judiciousness (I'll let the voters decide) or his caution (Why burn a bridge?). In other words, "yawn."
That
said, there's at least one thing about the Gore endorsement worth
noting: the location. (No, he won't accept a slot as Obama's veep--no matter what James Carville says.) One of two states where the Democratic primary process was derailed by disagreements between the national party and its local satellites--and
where, consequently, the presidential candidates did not
campaign--Michigan is now enjoying Obama's nearly undivided attention.
What's interesting here is that Florida (site of the other botched
primary) is not. According to the Washington Post's 2008 Campaign
Tracker, the Illinois senator has made 10 campaign stops on two separate swings through the Great Lakes State since mid-May--far more than any other non-primary state--versus only six in Florida (on a single trip). What's more, the Michigan events included Obama's two biggest endorsements to date: John Edwards on May 14 in Grand Rapids, and now Gore (whose backing, as Ben Smith notes, "might have had more symbolic resonance [in] Florida.")
Obama
is obsessed with Michigan because, unlike Florida, it's a must-win
state--and winning there is hardly a sure thing at this point. In
Tropicana country, Obama currently trails McCain by an average of 8.3 points. That's a difficult hill to climb, which is why Obama campaign manager David Plouffe has designed his boss's electoral strategy around losing Florida (like John Kerry) in November.
The problem is, Obama can't afford to drop Michigan's 17 electoral
votes (which Kerry won) as well. Recent Michigan polls are rare, but
the three taken since May 19 show McCain with an average lead of 1.6 percent. Why so close? Democratic divisions. In Rasmussen's national polling,
Obama and McCain earn identical levels of support from members of their
own parties: 81 percent of Dems back Obama and 83 percent of
Republicans back McCain. But the latest Rasmussen poll in Michigan
shows that while McCain's local GOP support matches his national
number--83 percent--Obama's support among state Democrats falls seven
points to 74 percent. Those defectors--perhaps former Clintonites
dissatisfied with how Michigan's controversial delegate clash was resolved--are enough to keep McCain in contention.
With
that in mind, expect Obama to make Michigan a major focus of his fall
travel plans. And expect the candidate--and even the Goracle itself--to
continue pushing the party-unity argument unveiled by the former veep
last night. “Looking back over the last eight years, I can tell you
that we have
already learned one important fact,” he said.
“Take it from me, elections matter."
Translation: Now's your chance to right the wrongs of 2000. Don't blow it. We'll see in November whether Gore's message is more compelling than his timing.