Is that the sound of something bouncing? 

When the fine folks at Quinnipiac University Polling Institute released their last round of swing-state surveys in late May, things looked sort of bleak for Barack Obama--at least at first glance. While Hillary Clinton trounced John McCain in all three head-to-head match-ups-- 48 to 41 percent in Florida, 48 to 41 percent in Ohio and 50 to 37 percent in Pennsylvania--Obama trailed his Republican rival by four in the first two contests (41-45 and 40-44, respectively) and led by a narrower margin (six points to Clinton's 13) in Keystone country. According to Clinton, this meant that she would win big swing states on Election Day and Obama wouldn't.

But as we wrote at the time, looks can be deceiving. With the interminable Democratic primary clash stuck in a strange twilight phase, Clinton's supporters were still coming to terms with the fact that Obama was all-but-certain to top the ticket--and many felt disappointed, angry and/or vindictive. Obama's supporters, on the other hand, were celebrating his impending nomination; they largely felt magnanimity toward Clinton, who posed little threat. That's why in Quinnipiac's McCain-Obama matchups, 26 to 36 percent of Clinton supporters in each state said that they'd vote for McCain in November if their candidate wasn't the nominee, while only 10 to 18 percent of Obama supporters responded in kind. Thanks to a little back-of-the-envelope math, we calculated that pro-Clinton defectors represented a 7.5 percent swing vote--and that if even half of them were to swing back to Obama, he would lead McCain in Florida and Ohio and pull further ahead in Pennsylvania. "Call it the Electability Mirage," we concluded. "Right now, Obama trails McCain in key states [largely] because a sizable number of [Clinton] supporters tell pollsters they will crossover in the fall."

Turns out we were right. This morning, Quinnipiac released a new round of numbers from Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania--and delivered a clean sweep for Obama. With voters now forced to choose between two candidates (Obama and McCain) instead of three (Obama, McCain and Clinton)--these are the first post-primary polls to hit the wires--the Illinois senator has established leads of 12 points in Pennsylvania (52-40), six points in Ohio (48-42) and four points in Florida (47-43). For the record, that's his first-ever edge in the Sunshine State. Why the bounce? Part of it's due to a decline in defectors. Last month, for example, 36 percent of Clinton's Florida supporters said they'd vote for McCain over Obama in November; today, that number has plummeted to 19 percent. But an even bigger reason is Obama's huge post-Clinton gains among women overall. Last month, Obama split women in Florida (43-42) and Ohio (42-40) with McCain; today he crushes the Arizona senator 50-40 among female Floridians and 51-39 among their Ohio counterparts, all while doubling his lead with Keystone State women from 12 points (49-37) to a massive 23 (57-34). Also boosting Barack: the fact that Quinnipiac is now surveying "likely voters" instead of "registered voters," which means that factors that could greatly affect turnout--an expanded electorate, the enthusiasm gap between liberals and conservatives and the Democrats' recent gains in party ID--are finally being taken into account.

The Quinnipiac Poll is the first to surface in Florida since Clinton withdrew from the race, so it's too early to say for sure if it represents the start of a statewide trend. But Ohio, at least, seems to be leaning toward Obama at this point.  The other poll released this week (PPP) shows the Democratic nominee ahead by a whopping 11-point margin, and he now clobbers McCain by an average of 6.2 percent in the state. Of course, a lot could--and will--happen in the four-and-a-half months before Election Day. But until today, Florida was the "one traditional swing state that always had looked off-limits to Obama." Not anymore. That's why the latest stats should have the folks at McCain HQ at least a little worried. In 2004, John Kerry lost Ohio and Florida but still managed to win 252 electoral votes (that's 18 short of a majority). If Obama picks up even one of these prizes--which are worth 20 and 27 electoral votes, respectively--it will be very, very difficult for the Arizona Republican to find a plausible path to the White House.

Boing boing.