In which Stumper examines the Republican nominee's possible--and not-so-possible--vice-presidential picks. (Previous McCain installments: Bobby Jindal; Mitt Romney; Charlie Crist. Previous Obama installments: Ted Strickland; Jim Webb; Wes Clark; Hillary Clinton.)

Name: Tim Pawlenty
Age: 47
Resume: Two-term Minnesota governor, former Minnesota state representative and state House majority leader.

Source of Speculation: A flurry of reports claiming that Pawlenty has risen to the top of McCain's vice presidential short list. Last Thursday, U.S. News and World Report money and politics blogger James Pethokoukis wrote that the "flavor right now for Team McCain is the environment-loving, hockey-playing governor of Minnesota, Tim Pawlenty," according to "a high-ranking McCain campaign official." At the same time, a close Pawlenty confidant told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune that his pal "has better than a 50-50 chance because of his personal relationship with McCain," and the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza reported that "there's little dispute in Republican circles that Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty is the leading candidate at the moment to be selected as John McCain's running mate." Can't get much more buzzy than that.

Backstory: Despite the faddish feel of the current Pawlenty chatter, he's long been considered a top veep possibility for McCain. The Minnesota gov was one of the first high-profile pols to endorse McCain's second White House bid. He started lobbying his fellow governors as early as Dec. 2006. He signed on as national co-chair of the senator's exploratory committee in Jan. 2007. He assumed a parallel role on the campaign three months later. And he didn't let last summer's implosion scare him off. "He stuck with us through thin,” said senior McCain adviser Charlie Black in February. “He went anywhere we asked and did anything we asked him to do." As a result, the Star-Tribune began to ask "Pawlenty for Veep: Will He or Won't He?" as early as March 2007; a year later, no less a conservative authority than George Will was advocating on his behalf. ("Pawlenty is a center-right politician in a center-right country," he wrote.) Most importantly, both McCain and Pawlenty have signaled their interest in a possible partnership. Speaking to the Times of London last week, Pawlenty said he was “honored to have his name mentioned," while adding the de rigueur disclaimer he was delighted with his “day job”. “I’m going to be very demure about it,” he said. Meanwhile, McCain told a town hall crowd in Minneapolis Thursday that Pawlenty "has a place in the future of this country as well as our Republican party." In other words, there's a whole lot of flirting going on.

Odds: Very strong. Contrary to the boosterish buzz, Pawlenty isn't a perfect candidate. According to Pethokoukis, internal McCain polls show that putting Pawlenty on the ticket would propel the senator to victory not only in Minnesota but also in neighboring Wisconsin, both of which went Democratic in the last two presidential elections by less than 3.5 percent. The reality? Not going to happen. Obama has held double-digit leads in both states since Iowa, and Pawlenty is neither popular not powerful enough to overturn them. He won reelection in 2006 by a mere two points, and his full-throated support did little to prevent McCain, by then the clear frontrunner, from losing by a whopping 19 points to Mitt Romney is Minnesota's Feb. 5 caucuses. The reason, as Cillizza has reported, is that "Pawlenty has an almost non-existent political operation either in the state or nationally."

What's more, Pawlenty is a virtual unknown. His low profile will do little to rev up grass-roots GOP activists and party operatives--a key consideration for a campaign that's in desperate need of electricity. But it will open the door for "rough treatment from the national press corps as they sift through his record as governor." For McCain, that's double trouble. "In this environment you can't pick someone who hasn't already been publicly vetted," a Republican strategist told the Post. Pawlenty's past is not without grist. He's been involved in a few campaign-finance and corporate-crony-related scandals. He pissed off some fiscal conservatives by imposing a 75-percent tax on cigarettes. He's undermined his bipartisan brand by clashing with the state legislature. And he recently made waves with a risque crack about his wife. "She loves football, she'll go to hockey games," he told a local radio interviewer last month. "Now, if I could only get her to have sex with me." Not exactly the best way to woo former Hillary Clinton supporters.

That said, Pawlenty is about as good as it gets for McCain. Think balance. He's youthful; McCain isn't. He has executive experience; McCain doesn't. And his blue-collar cred adds some "regular guy" ballast to McCain's rootless warrior image--not to mention a potentially useful link to middle-class voters, who have been trending Democratic in recent elections. A trucker's son raised in the working-class neighborhoods south of St. Paul, Pawlenty was the first in his family to graduate from college. As governor, he plays ice hockey whenever possible. On opening day of fishing season this spring, he snagged a 17" walleye. And he's completely comfortable visiting a roadside bar and putting a constituent in a headlock. Pawlenty's "proletarian chic," as the New Republic's Noam Scheiber calls it, would serve the stiffer McCain well, and help sell a message of populist Republicanism--for "Sam's Club not just the country club," in Pawlenty's trademarked catchphrase--perfectly calibrated for this dismal economic climate.

Pawlenty is the rare Republican who could reassure supply-siders and social conservatives still skeptical of McCain without scaring off blue-state moderates. (After all, they've elected him twice.) As governor, he's cut taxes and spending, backed an anti-gay marriage amendment, signed a law requiring doctors to explain the risks and alternatives to abortion and maintained close ties to the evangelical community (his wife Mary attended an evangelical college and counts the president of the National Association of Evangelicals as a personal friend). At the same time, Pawlenty, who refuses to wear his religion on his sleeve, has branded himself as reformist/maverick in the McCain mold.  He speaks out against global warming. He rails against oil and pharmaceutical companies. And he stresses the need for a new kind of conservatism. "I believe the Republican brand needs refreshment,” Pawlenty has said. “Our principles haven’t changed but the country is changing in terms of demographics, culture and technology and we need to make sure the Republican messenger has a modern message.” As the Times of London put it last week, he's "the thinking man’s blue-collar conservative, a political moderate and environmentalist." That's a tricky balance to strike--and it's exactly what McCain needs to win in November.

Will McCain tap Pawlenty? We won't know until early August. But it's worth remembering that the senator places an unusual premium on loyalty and friendship--meaning that personal factors will probably influence his pick as much, if not more, than political calculations. This is where the Minnesotan may have the biggest edge on his competitors (namely, Mitt Romney). According to campaign insiders, Pawlenty and his prospective boss get along swimmingly, sharing a bawdy sense of humor and a strong mischievous streak. (The governor, for example, has been known to use his reception-room fireplace as a hockey goal.) In addition, Pawlenty stepped aside in 1998 to let a senior Republican run for governor, proving that he can shelve his own ambitions for the good of the party--a key part of being veep. In the end, choosing a running mate is as much an art as a science. But however you slice it, Pawlenty is well-positioned to score.